Source: Ming Pao

Ming Pao Society Review

The Russian mercenary organization's Wagner Group mutiny, ending in a compromise in Beros to mediate.On the surface, the Wagner Group is the private militia organization. It actually was supported by the Kai Palace and fought in Ukraine, Syria and other places to serve Russia.This changes involved multiple factors, including the long -term contradictions and the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Defense, and the Kugong intending to incorporate the Wagner soldiers into the regular army.The authority is undoubtedly a blow.There are many unknown operations behind the scenes.Over the years, the Putin regime is as stable as Taishan, which is to successfully unify most oligopoly forces. Occasionally, the chaebol and oligarch dare to do the right, and they have ended in failure. Unless there is another strong rising or drama, it will not see that Putin's rule will not be seen in the short term.The possibility.

Wu Zhan has repeatedly exposed Russian weaknesses

Most of the suspected groups are not solved

The Wagner Group was established in 2014. It was originally a secret organization. Most soldiers were Russian retired soldiers or members of the former special forces. They supported the division of the Russian separation forces in eastern Ukraine and assisted Russia to annex Crimea.Since then, the group has continued to grow. In addition to activities in Wudong, there are also operations in the Middle East and Africa regions such as Syria, Libya, and places in which the Russian army should not be directly involved and extended the interests of Russia.Therefore, strictly speaking, Wagner is not a mercenary regiment that generally fights for money, but a elite force outside the Russian regular army, with Russian nationalist color, ideological in the form of extreme right white supremacy, and has won some extremely right rights in the West.Pigmers are deemed to be the same.At the beginning of last year, the Russian army invaded Ukraine, and Wagner became a main force of Russia. It is estimated that 50,000 soldiers fought on the front line.

The

The Russian and Ukraine War exposed the fragile side of the Russian army. The record of the siege was not ideal, and the damage of troops was far more estimated than the early stages of the war. The Ke Palace needs to rely on the Wagner Group, and the regular army's bad power is obviously one of the reasons.The Wagner Group is self -contained, which is conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense. It can be described as expected.In the past, the group had repeatedly criticized the Ministry of Defense's combat command and was not working hard, and also took up the military equipment that was originally delivered to the Wagner soldiers.The Wagner Group captured Wudong Bachmut last month, and the casualties were heavy. Unexpectedly, the Ministry of Defense announced early this month that all the informal troops that fought in Ukraine would sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense before July 1st.It is the same to investigate the power of the military power, and is going to investigate him. It is believed that this is the true fire line of the Vagna Group's mutiny.

Pricigen said on Friday to accuse the Russian army to fight the Wagner military battalion, or ordered the 25,000 troops to go north. Pioneer was approaching Moscow for a while.End, it takes 36 hours before and after.Although the incident was quickly resolved and there was no fierce armed conflict, Putin came to power for more than 20 years. The situation in Russia had never tried so nervous, and many suspects in the incident did not solve it.

Pricig is serving the army north, and the banner of "Qingjun" is given, emphasizing that the goal is to "punish the high -level Russian army", and deny the launch of the military coup. What about the truth?The heart of Yue Yue does not rule out that he just wants to do "Da Sao" and strive for negotiation chips.Belarusian President's mediation crisis prompted Perigo Ren Mingjin for his troops. The Russian government agreed to let Porigo go to Belarus and revoke his criminal prosecution against Wagner. Wagner members could sign contract with the Ministry of Defense.Due to the lack of more details, "you can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense", and "must sign a contract" is two different things. For the time being, it is not affirmed that the Russian army will compile Wagner soldiers in essence.How much influence is under the front and life that will live "on the surface, and actually monitored" life is also unknown.

The Western world is in the dual view of the "Democracy". It often has the disadvantages of wishful thinking on the Russian issue.Wagner's mutiny, Putin described this as a "tradition behind the knife", but the host was able to go abroad and was revoked criminal prosecution, which made Putin's faceless face and cracking down on its authority.The aura and the Russian army will be defeated in Ukraine. It is for granted.On the battle, the Russian and Ukraine armed forces were stuck, and the actual situation has not changed. The Ukrainian army counterattacked in the spring, and the progress was less damaged. Although the Russian army could not help it, it seemed that it was not a problem to keep the main occupation area.In terms of political situation, although Putin was slapped hard, unless the Russian army defeated in Wudong, or other unexpected black swan incidents, the possibility of falling in the short term of Putin could not be seen in the short term.

The formation of the Russian oligopoly politics began in the disintegration of the Soviet Union. A large number of state -owned property has been invaded by small people, and the interests of politics, businessmen, and wealth are intertwined.Liezovsky and others support before they can be re -elected as president in 1996.Pricigen alleged to serve the oligopoly interests, but he himself became an oligopoly in the 1990s, and he had long been "cared" for a long time with his relationship with Putin.Russian liberals have never been a climate. Putin has been in power for a long time. It relies on the support of the national strong man's image, and successfully unified the most oligopoly forces. For the "rebellious" oligarchy, Putin never hand softly.Brezovsky challenged Putin in an opposition, and was forced to exile in the UK and died strangely 10 years ago.

Putin Fei Quanyou has no dead point

The oligopoly power has not been rebelled

Pryigo's "rebellion" is similar to the "rebellion" in the past. The biggest difference is that this time it involves armed forces.Under the politics of Russia, Kediya's ideas may have a large reshuffle of interest distribution, which is risky for all political and business powers. Unless Putin has gone, or a new strong man has risen, the oligopoly power may not act lightly.Of course, after this battle, some oligarchs may think that Putin does not have no dead acupuncture points, and even thinks that armed mercenaries can increase personal political costs.Wagner's long -term impact on Russian politics requires more time to observe.