Source: Bloomberg
China's consumer -driven recovery is showing more signs of losing momentum. The expenditures from festival tourism to cars, housing and other fields are slowing down, which has caused the market to introduce the government's predictions to the government's more stimulating measures to stabilize the economy.Essence
Official data released on weekends show that domestic tourism expenditure during the Dragon Boat Festival is lower than the level before the epidemic.The Dragon Boat Festival has not seen significantly, and the sales are lower than the level in previous years.Passenger cars in June are expected to decrease year -on -year.
After canceling the dynamic zero -epidemic prevention measures, the consumption rebound has promoted China's growth this year, but confidence is still weak, and more and more evidence makes more help.After the central bank earlier this month, economists predict that there will be more currency and fiscal stimulus policies in the future. In recent days, the official media also published a series of articles, mentioning economic support measures that may be introduced.
Lu Ting, the chief Chinese economist of Nomura, wrote in a research report on Sunday that holiday travel data shows that the recovery momentum of contact services after the epidemic is weakening.He pointed out that the average expenditure of a single trip was about 16%lower than that of 2019, "it means that either people's willingness to consume or decline in purchasing power."
"With the decline in the demand for suppressed, the risk of the second economic bottom bottoming out in the next few months will become more practical. We expect that the growth of contact service consumption will continue to weaken," Lu Ting wrote.
After the A -share Festival, the weakened situation continued, and the CSI 300 index fell 1.6%on Monday.Consumer necessities and financial sectors are weak.
Forsyth Barr Asia's senior research analyst Willer Chen said that the travel data of the Dragon Boat Festival is not as good as the May Day holiday, which is one of the reasons for the decline in A shares.
Not all data is dim. According to Xinhua News Agency, the box office during the Dragon Boat Festival has achieved the second good results of the Dragon Boat Festival of the film history.However, other indicators show that consumer expenditure has not obtained kinetic energy.
The 21st Century Business Herald said that the monitoring data of the Zhuge Data Research Center showed that during the Dragon Boat Festival, the new houses were sold for 4,547 new houses, which was still a second trough in the past five years.According to the preliminary estimate of the Federation of Federation, the sales of passenger vehicles in June are expected to decrease by nearly 6%year -on -year.
With concerns about economic growth, it is speculated that the stimulus measures may be increased during the year.
Last week, Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Mainland Government and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, attended the "Restore and Expansion Consumption" research and negotiation symposium to negotiate about the relevant research results carried out by the Democratic Party Central Committee, the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, and the non -party representatives.EssenceOn Monday, the two state -owned securities articles mentioned that analysts predict the government's policy options that the government may consider.
The China Securities Journal quoted Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomicist of Everbright Securities, said that as the Ministry of Finance issued the remaining local debt of this year to all provinces and cities, the issuance of new special debt was expected to speed up margin.Essence
At the same time, the Shanghai Securities Journal quoted analysts that the monetary policy will continue to make efforts in the second half of the year, and the rational reduction rates may be reduced.
However, from the perspective of the S & P Global Economist Louis Kuijs, any stimulus measures are unlikely to be very large.The company has lowered China's economic growth forecast this year from 5.5%to 5.2%, because of uneven recovery.
Kuijs wrote in a report on Sunday that the government may still consider relaxing the restrictions on buying houses and mortgage down payment requirements, and may increase financial support to promote consumption.He pointed out that although consumer confidence has resumed slowly, some retail sales and disposable expenditure data have maintained toughness, indicating that the remaining time and 2024 are expected to achieve growth.
