At the same time that the Nikkei Index has been constantly refreshing the highest point in the past 33 years this year, the Japanese economy seems to be cutting and farewell to the "30 years of lost 30 years."With the effort, the employment market is active and excited, and the growth rhythm has continued to evolve ... A series of optimistic signals are showing and strengthening the amazing impression of the international community and strengthening the Japanese economy back to the right track or upward.However, the Japanese economic body, which has not been healed, is not only difficult to achieve high and high, but it will inevitably encounter many variable erosion and disturbances during the rehabilitation process.
The latest data from the Japanese Cabinet House shows that the Japanese economy has increased for two consecutive quarters.It is completely different from the economic recovery of the European and American economies, showing a very obvious structural characteristics, that is, after the service industry speeds up and increases, after the manufacturing industry is short -legged, the Japanese economy is full of firepower in service and manufacturing.
It is mapped into real economic activities. The service and manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) shows the rapid release of consumer demand and the rapid expansion of enterprise investment.As far as consumption is concerned, incremental pulling the demand side comes from the continuous improvement of Japan's domestic wage status, but also has the auxiliary role of foreign tourists.Data show that last year, the salary increase in Japanese companies was 2.27%. Since the beginning of this year, the average weighted salary increase of enterprises has been 3.67%, the highest level in nearly 30 years.According to data from the National Tourism Administration of Japan, the number of foreign tourists from Japan in April this year was nearly 2 million, a year -on -year increase of 14 times.
In terms of corporate investment, the latest monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan decided to maintain -0.1%of the monetary interest rate unchanged. At the same time, it continued to implement the national bond yield curve control (YCC) policy.The operating profit space created by the enterprise is amplified, and the willingness to expand investment in the company to expand its investment and expected effective stimulus; at the same time, scan the stimulus power of the consumer demand side, it is found that it accounts for 10%of the total domestic production value (GDP) and the total industrial output value of 50%The contribution of the automotive industry is particularly significant.Data show that in the first five months of this year, Japanese cars completed a total of 2.057900 units, an increase of 17%year -on -year.According to the analysis report of the Ministry of Economic and Industry in Japan, the demand for the automotive manufacturing industry of each unit can bring additional needs of 2.7 units of the overall economy. The automotive industry has become the strongest tensile force for enterprise investment and even the entire economic expansion.
Double expansion of the service industry and manufacturing, consumption and investment, the Japanese labor market has entered an unprecedented prosperity and active state.According to data from the Ministry of Education of Japan, the employment rate of college students in 2023 reached 97.3%, and the employment rate of high school graduates also reached 98%at the same time.What's more noteworthy is that according to the investigation of the company's recruitment plan, the starting salary of university graduates who joined the company this year increased by 2.2%year -on -year, the highest increase in the past 13 years.
Can't guarantee a high pillow all year round
Almost everyone defines Japan as an export -oriented economy. However, relying on domestic consumption and investment empowerment, driving the overall economic recovery and reform results, and subverting many people's traditional cognition of the Japanese economy.Theoretically, this endogenous economic growth path is more reliable than the export -oriented economic growth method, and the actual effect is more stable.The positive function of the economy may be greatly discounted and even on the opposite side.Therefore, even if the start of the first quarter of this year is good, it cannot fully ensure that the Japanese economy is not worried throughout the year, and the possibility of growth slowdown and stabilizing will not be ruled out in the future.
First of all, there is a risk of high consolidation in inflation.In the first four months of this year, the domestic price of Japan rose 3.5%, which increased year -on -year in 20 consecutive months, and the increase in nine months remained above 3%; the geopolitical factors that affect the price of international commodities still exist.The game between the market supply and demand is still very fierce, and with the suspension of the Fed's interest rate hike and the slowdown of the subsequent rhythm, speculative capital may also turn to more commodities, and the prices of imported goods in Japan are difficult to decline significantly.In addition, rising wages in Japan are also likely to create a spiral of rising domestic commodity prices. The inflation level has a substantial decline in the level of inflation as scheduled, which is very difficult.Inflation is maintained at a high level, which not only increases the pressure of monetary policy tightening, but also reflects the increase in consumption, which constitutes a reverse wind on the overall economic growth.
Secondly, the actual income is risk of not rising and anti -descending.According to the latest data of the Ministry of Labor, the actual average monthly salary in April decreased by 3%year -on -year, and it was the 13th consecutive month.If the actual income does not rise and fall, it will inevitably reduce the consumption expenditure of the family. Since June, the seven major power companies have been allowed to greatly increase electricity prices and further cause anti -pressure on residents' consumption.Statistics show that although the fiscal year ended in March, although Japanese family expenditure increased by 0.7%, it decreased by 0.9 percentage points from the previous fiscal year.After the decline in March, it contracted for two consecutive months.At the same time, Global Data Analysis Company Global Data predicts that the growth of actual Japanese family consumption expenditure will slow from 2.1%in 2022 to 0.9%in 2023.
Once again, there is a risk of continuously enlarging the trade deficit.Since the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen has continued to be soft, but has not driven the export significantly. The export growth rate has fallen to the lowest point in the past two years, and the contribution to GDP is negative. NextThe emergence of appreciation is bound to further strengthen the decrease in Japan's export growth rate, and the existing trade deficit will continue to magnify.There is a negative feedback relationship between the trade deficit and the depreciation of the yen, that is, the trade deficit will weaken the foundation of the strengthening of the yen, and the depreciation of the yen will further increase the price of imported goods, thereby worsening the degree of trade deficit.Generally speaking, due to the suppression of a strong dollar and the continuous loose traction of domestic monetary policy, the trend of continuing the year of the yen is difficult to reverse. In the context of further slowing the global economic growth, it is difficult to show strong toughness.
Finally, there is a risk of turning in monetary policy.According to the estimates of the central bank governor Shi Tian and the male, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to nearly 2%later this year, and then the contraction of monetary policy will be considered.For enterprises, the Bank of Japan has abandoned the rate of yield curve control policies. The rise of the long -term interest rate of government bonds will inevitably drive the increase in the cost of issuance of corporate bonds.Profit, forcing enterprises to reduce investment expenditures.In this regard, the calculation result given by the Japan Economic Research Center is that if the long -term interest rate of Treasury bonds rises to 1.1%, that is, the current basis has doubled.As a result, the economy is self -evident.
The author is a director and professor of economics in the Chinese Market Society
