Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
Late at night on June 24, local time, the Wagner Group approaching Moscow suddenly agreed to withdraw the army, and the 24 -hour Russian soldiers who were shocked were finally concluded.
According to the Russian Presidential Press Secretary and the Kremlin spokesman Peskov, President Lukashenko's mediation efforts are crucial, and Putin also highly appreciates this. As for why Lukashenko came forward, PescoHusband explained this: "Lukashenko has known Pritigo for a long time, about 20 years. This is his personal proposal and coordinated with President Putin."
Observe the conditions for negotiation between the two parties. The content is as follows: First, the Wagner troops stopped entering Moscow and evacuated the Rostov region on the Don River to return to the camp.It will leave Russia and go to White Ross; third, Wagner personnel who have not participated in the rebellion will sign service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and the remaining Wagner personnel will not be held accountable; fourth, the reorganization and personnel changes of the Russian Ministry of Defense,Within the scope of the discussion of this agreement, in other words, Putin did not intend to even move the position of defense Minister Shi Yigu and Chief of Staff Glasimov.
In summary, the key to resolving the mutiny is the condition of the Russian government and the Wagner. The former promised that Perigo's personal safety and criminal exemption with Wagner personnel in exchange for large -scale bleeding conflicts and disappeared from both injuries to dispel from both defeats to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate them from being injured to eliminate from the suffering.Invisible, at the same time stabilize the army's heart and Ukraine front line.Although Lukashenko was depicted as an important mediation person, from the perspective of political reality, the real shooting and decision -making are still the Russian President Putin, a conflict.
The emergence and intensification of conflicts
Looking back at the 24 -hour process of the conflict, Putin and Pleigo seem to have a certain degree of misjudgment, which has led to the difficulties of riding a tiger, and the conflict finally evolved into the "timid ghost game" that the President announced the Vagna rebels and Wagner's entry into the north (The Game of Chicken, especially when Wagner was approaching Moscow less than 200 kilometers, many public opinion was worried that the tragedy of the capital washed in the capital was about to be staged. Tension was comparable to the "special military operation" on Russia in 2022.
First of all, the Putin government has misjudged twice after the mutiny.According to reports of the independent media MEDUZA, which is famous for reports, two sources close to the Kremlin pointed out that when Perigo announced that he would "armed conflict with the Ministry of National Defense" on June 23, the Presidential General Office was lucky and believed that he believed that he believed that he believed that he believed thatPricigen may only be re -applied, and want to be bluntly and bargain, so he did not take it seriously, nor did he strictly ordered the military to warn the war. It was not until Wagner entered Rostov in the early morning of June 24,Ligo Ren "may be true."This is the first misjudgment of Putin in the mutiny.
Sources also pointed out that after the incident of Rostov, Putin originally wanted to "more or less peaceful solution".Alexander Harrchev and the person in charge of the internal affairs department Andrea Alein also called the Chief Executive and Political Elite in the system of Russia to "commented gently and do not continue to discuss Perigo."However, one and a half after this action, the situation suddenly heated up. Russian senior officials suddenly notified the administrative chiefs and political elites in various places. Pricigen had been set as a "traitor". Then Putin delivered a TV speech at 10 am in Moscow at 10 am.Ji Pricig is accused of "betrayal".
According to the sources of Meduza, in this half -hour, senior Russian officials had a non -public dialogue with Perigo, "but there is obviously no positive results in the conversation." In additionThe troops will prevent Wagner from advancing, so the latter will not really dare to "kill Moscow".Under the intersection of the two contexts, Putin seems to have begun to think that as long as he has a tough attitude, Wagner will know that it is difficult to retreat, and even the on -site collapse.Personal off the weapon.This is the second misjudgment of Putin in the mutiny.
But Pritigon would not expect it.Looking back at the background of the Wagner's mutiny, it has a long -term disagreement with the Russian regular army and the contract forced by the Ministry of National Defense.Although Pricigen had hoped that Putin had helped to help him to have the leadership of Wagner, the result was the failure of his failure and was finalized by "signing a contract before July 1".In this way, Pleigo, who was unwilling to play, took risks. On June 23, with the gambling of "soldiers", Bao Putin adjusted his position in his conflict with the Ministry of National Defense, forcing the Ministry of Defense to recover and let Wagner.From the perspective of subsequent development, the Ruye's Ruyi abacus has not been fully dial.
As mentioned earlier, Putin did not seriously look at the threat of Porigo at first, and fixed Wagner's "betrayal" after heating up the situation.This ending is not ready to make concessions, let alone punish the Defense Director Shi'egu and Chief of Staff Gracorph.
Sure enough, Pleigo's appointment is that it is impossible to prepare, nor will it not be expected to have the development of Putin's face, but this is obviously not the most likely to end, otherwise it will not be inAfter controlling the Rostov region, he also negotiated with the deputy minister of the Ministry of Defense, Yefelov at the Southern Military Region headquarters.From the perspective of Poligen's action trajectory, it is largely waiting for the Clemlin's response, and then decide how to carry out the next step. Even if the Russian prosecutor has already criminally filed a criminal case, it still wants to wait for Putin's "one hammer".EssenceFinally, at 10 am in Moscow time, he waited for Putin's "rebellion", and the Russian side also took over the Wagner headquarters. Pricigen found that he had broken after he found himself.Responsive Putin's overtime.
The situation has developed here, and the "timid ghost game" is officially taken: Putin is a "never compromised" tough guy, and Prigo Ren staged the end of the "Enemies in the Instinct Temple".The two were killed, facing the crisis to the courage to move forward.
The gains and losses of Putin
But when Wagner approached Moscow, the situation suddenly had a turn: under the mediation of White Ross, Perigon agreed to let Wagner return to the station, and he would go to Belos.This action seems to happen between Pricigen and Lukashenko. In fact, the essence is the result of Putin and Pleigo Ren: Pricigen knows that he can no longer be courageous. After all, time is not good for himself; PutinUnder the consideration of the overall situation of the battlefield and achieving the goal of compiling Wagner, pay the reputation cost to resolve the crisis, and then use the "White Ros mediation" to make up for his political loss.
Starting from Putin's position, the reason why the tough guy attitude is based on two key judgments: First, Wagner will start large -scale surrender and collapse after hearing that he is settled "rebel";Second, if Wagner is obsessed, the Russian and security forces are still capable of annihilating Wagner and avoiding it from entering Moscow.
But from the perspective of subsequent development, Putin's calculations are obviously failed.After hearing that he was charged with the "betrayal of the country", Pleigo not only did not let go of his weapon, but also led the army to the north. Putin's first judgment ended there, and he could only start looking forward to armed interference along the way.However, from the perspective of Wagner's rush, the Russian army does not seem to be targeted in large -scale. Without a split of the Russian high -level executives, this phenomenon may have two explanations: First, the Russian army underestimates the number of people and the number of people in this trip of Wagner.Firepower, after Wagner continued to destroy air targets and killed pilots, he realized that it was difficult for the decentralized troops in each district to make effective interference. They could only abandon the fruit under the consideration of the preservation strength. After allWagner fought, once the arms was seized by each break, it was equivalent to assisting the armed Wagner;The reason for opening the fire may not want to die in vain, or sympathize with Wagner.
In any case, in the reality of Wagner's approaching, no matter how tough Putin can no longer consider the negotiations.Because if the negotiations are rejected, Moscow may break out of fierce armed conflicts, and the situation may go to three results: Pricig is arrested or died, Putin lost to the offensive to fled to another city to continue his resistance, Putin surrendered or died.No matter what kind of result, its actual cost is much higher than that of Putin's "abandoning the tough guy". It will also increase the uncertainty of the Russian and Ukraine front lines significantly. Under weighing, Putin certainly needs to choose negotiations and negotiations.In addition, it may be boldly inferred that the negotiation may have begun after Vagna opened the M4 highway outside Volne Japan, and it has begun. If this is true, this may be explained to a certain extent.Powerful.
As for whether Wagner accepts Putin's conditions, the key is to measure his situation.In all fairness, although Wagner is a strong trip, it is impossible to fight a large number of Russian regular army. Even if Pritigon is really subverting Putin, it must rely on two special conditions: the Russian army far away in Ukraine is not good for rescue, the domestic Russian army is the Big Russian army.The scale is added to Wagner, so that it is possible to achieve success; otherwise, once the Moscow defenders fight against blood and vowed to defend the president, when the army returns to defense, the situation will be extremely unfavorable to Wagner.
In terms of development, the counterattack atmosphere of the Ukrainian army really helps to drag the Russian army.Porigen has declared in the operation that "our strategic reserves are the entire army and the country." They also called on all the soldiers who were dissatisfied with the soldiers of Shaygu and Gracorph together, but the result proved that Perigo Ren was nothing but self -contained.To put it bluntly, although Wagner did not encounter strong targets, he did not attract grass -roots soldiers to vote for sincerity, let alone split high -level Russian army.
Therefore, compared to the two parties of the "timid game", as long as the conflict time is stretched, Wagner's disadvantage is clearly visible, but Putin obviously does not want to shake the risk of the front line.Milk space.Judging from the current conditions, Perigor seems to have chosen to exile Beros and protect his personal safety by Lukashenko; although Wagner has not been forcibly incorporated into the Ministry of National Defense, he can adopt voluntary form and national defense form and national defense.The contract signed a contract, but under the reality of Porigen's far away, it is probably a matter of time sooner or later by the Ministry of Defense; and the Haguku and Gracimov who were criticized by Pryigon for several months, and the status did not seem to have no status.Affected.
In short, Pryigo still can't keep his control of Wagner, but at least he has obtained criminal exemption and personal safety, but his identity as a Putin ally is no longer, and his past power is gone.As for the future of Putin, it is obviously the focus of attention from all parties.In all fairness, Putin did make several political mistakes in dealing with the Wagner soldiers and paid the price of prestige and reputation in the process of good after the good after the good after the good after the good.The national Duma, the military, and the intelligence system to the foreign department have all expressed support for Putin, which is an important key to defeat the mutiny.In the end, Putin not only kept the military agenda that compiled Wagner, but also maintained the role of Shaygou and Gracorph, and removed Purig's irregular bomb without any harvest.
Of course, a mutiny and a temporary abandonment of "being a tough guy" will cause a blow to Putin's reputation, but Wagner is not a regular army after all. Putin not only retains the senior executives of the regular army, but also continues to promote the end of Wagner.Damage; and the collision of Pritigo also accidentally proved that the Kremlin's support for the "core of Putin" was not the "Putin is about to collapse" like the Western long -term singing.Therefore, it is necessary to infer that Putin will inevitably be weak in the future, and even predicts that Russia will rebel frequently in the future and be out of control. It seems that it is too early.
