Source: Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily
The Russian mercenary organization "Wagner Group" leader Poligon launched a mutiny. Bing Feng was against Moscow and shocked the world, but the situation changed dramatic after 24 hours. Wagner finally agreed to stun the flag and return to the barracks.Although the end of the mutiny has ended, the most dangerous moment has passed, but the incident has seriously crack down on President Putin's political prestige, which also affects Russian military morale, or provides a counterattack opportunity for Ukraine, which may cause variables in the Russian and Ukraine situation.
Purigen, who fought at the front line of the Ukrainian Russia -Russian control area. Last Friday night, the generals of the National Defense Minister Shaygu deceived the people and Putin, launched a war to Ukraine, and failed to provide sufficient ammunition to Wagner in the war.Launch a mutiny to the side of Qingjun, led the soldiers to Russia, and drove straight straight to 200 kilometers away from Moscow.Putin raised Purigo to serve as a rebels, and was stitched by a knife behind Russia, and he would severely punish the rebels.
In order to stabilize the overall situation, it will damage the image of the strong
Just as the outside world scrambles to comment on how the situation will develop, it is estimated that there are three possible situations: the rebels were wiped out by the government forces, the war, and the civil war, and Putin was overthrown.As soon as everyone wakes up, the incident has been successfully resolved. The key is that Belarusian President Lukashenko medals in time. Pricig will not only withdraw the crime of rebellion, but also bears in Belarus.If the non -participating can be included in the regular army, Wagner agreed to return to the Ukrainian field military camp immediately.
Although the Wagner Corps marching rapidly, it went deep into 1,000 kilometers within a day. If he entered the unmanned situation, he finally agreed to return to the camp.Fang was caught off guard.However, the mutiny has not been supported by political elites, local troops and extensive people, and lack of military supplies. In addition, Russia has never had a military leader or a successful military coup, which made him unsatisfactory to the end.After all, he is always Russians and is unwilling to see himself. Lukashenko guarantees his personal safety and only agree to accept this step.
Although this terrifying mutiny ended peacefully, I believe that Russia's political situation will not have drama in the short term, but to some extent, Putin is not as powerful as the outside world.Putin has encountered many crises during his tenure. In the face of the Chechen rebels and Ukraine's request to join NATO, even if Bing Rong meets each other, he will never give up, but this time he compromises with the rebels.If a large -scale civil war broke out in China at this time, it will be detrimental to frontline warfare.Belarus is old and old to provide room for negotiation for the situation as soon as possible. Putin reluctantly accepted, but the concession has damaged its strong image.
When Wagner withdrew from Rostov, the public sent the road, and two different messages were released behind it: some people were dissatisfied with the poor military logistics supply, so that Wagner fell into a hard battle at the front line;, So those who oppose Putin give support.The incident is the alarm of Putin's governance, and it must be taken seriously and handled carefully, otherwise it will be caught in a crisis of personal power at any time.
The war against Russia and Ukraine has been comprehensively sanctioned by the West by the West. It is difficult for Putin to call the war. Therefore, it is equivalent to admitting that it is wrong to make a decision to make a war.The mutiny not only exposed the internal contradictions of the military, but also made Putin realize that the mercenary regiment was large, and there was a reflux effect at any time.Putin's priority is how to effectively disperse the Wagner armed personnel into the regular army and handle the command of other mercenaries. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the logistics supplies as soon as possible.The unified command of the generals of the generals can enhance the morale of the army and recover the Russian confidence in the battle.
Western chaos or encouraging Wu to launch a counterattack
For Ukraine and the West, the Wagner's mutiny has ended, but the incident reflects the fire of Russia's backyard and cracking down on Russia's morale. It is also the best time to cause the military in the military.Excluding the West will encourage the Ukraine to take advantage of the long -standing counterattack, making the war possible.
The most dangerous moment in Russia may have passed, but the incident has not been fully ended. Whether Wagner is willing to be disbanded? Whether Pricig will be commanded in Belarus's remote control, whether Putin can improve military command, will be verified, but it is stared atThe West will never give him time, and the water dog will be dropped, so Putin's trouble in the future will only come one after another.
