A farce caused by Wagner's military rebellion, hurriedly ended within 24 hours.However, there are still many questions left by this rebellion, and the impact on Russia's political situation and the trend of conflict are still continuing.

At present, the Russian government has announced that the Wagner personnel participating in the rebellion will not sue, trying to reduce the impact of the incident on the war situation.Ukrainian officials have confirmed that the Ukraine has launched a counterattack to multiple directions while the turbulence of the Ukraine ... However, the offense from the front battlefield is not the biggest hidden danger of Russia.

rebellion or implication of route differences

With more than 20 years of personal friendship with the person in charge of the Wagner Organization, President White Rosonko successfully persuaded Porigen to stop the pace of going to Moscow after a day.

Before that, on the near -traffic road, the Russian Air Heavenly Army's fighter did not start a fatal bombing of the Wagner team in the march, but Moscow began to set up defense positions outside Moscow. The mayor of Moscow asked residents to go out for no reason ...… However, on the 25th, the traffic control of all federal roads in Russia was canceled, and Perigon would go to Belos.

This ending method is even more surprising than the sudden occurrence of this rebellion.

From the comparison of the military strength of both parties, as long as the Russian government is determined to target, the lack of air cover, heavy firepower and logistics supplies, it is difficult to cause large -scale destruction.The key to the problem is what is the represented by Pritigon, and its impact on Russia's domestic politics.

In fact, although the resentment between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner Organization of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner Organization of the rebellion should not be repeated.After many differentiation of interest organizations of the Russian elite, it has developed a different tendency for the process and direction of the war.

As far as the intensity of the Russian and Ukraine War and the overall strategy of Russia are concerned, the Russian government is currently prudent. Before the decision of important elections in many countries around the world in 2024, it was unwilling to let the war blindly upgrade.However, in addition to the voices against the war in Russia, there are more radical political claims. If the state is required to conduct a start -up mobilization and expand the scale and intensity of the war.

From the personal words and deeds of Prigo, no matter whether he really supports more radical routes, the rebellion may be a mobilization of anti -Putin forces in Russia.For the Russian government, it is not difficult to extinguish the rebellion military, but whether Russia's policy for the Russian and Ukraine War will be adjusted and moved to radicals, it is a huge test of the international community, just like before World War II, Japan's "226"Although the soldiers themselves were targeted, they successfully promoted the Japanese government to be tied to the tank of the military in one year.

Western expression is abnormal

After the rebellion, Western countries, which fiercely confronted Russia, were extremely cautious and did not show support for this march that could cause the Russian civil war.Earlier, Biden had issued a warning that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons.

As of now, US officials have shown close attention to the situation, but refused to publish any comments, only saying that it will not change the Ukraine policy.According to US media disclosure, the entire Washington agenda was affected by the Wagner rebellion -US President Biden Biden Bai Deng and the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain was concerned that the Russian government's control of the nuclear arsenal might decline;Canadian, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and other countries emergency calls; Miri, chairman of the joint meeting of the United States Staff, canceled the scheduled access to Israel and Jordan and stayed in Washington for consultations.

Boerley, a senior representative of EU diplomacy and security policy, also refused to directly comment on Russia's "internal problems".He revealed that the EU crisis centers have been launched and will coordinate with EU member states before the EU Foreign Affairs Council on the 26th.

Western carefulness can be expected, because the single logic of anti -Pujing is not enough to explain the complicated and complicated Russian and Ukraine situation.Although the West does not wait to see the Putin government, it is even more difficult for Poligon's radical proposition and words and deeds to reassure them.Although the West has a high probability of using rebellion to achieve military progress, the risk of losing control of Russia in Russia also can't afford them.

The real challenge to Russia is not in front of the battle

At the same time that the situation in Russia attracted global attention, Ukraine tried to take the opportunity to achieve military breakthroughs.The Deputy Minister of Defense of the Ukraine Department of the Ministry of Defense confirmed on the 25th that the Ukraine used the turbulent situation in Russia on the 24th and launch a counterattack in multiple directions, including Bach Murut and Ashidin, and "made progress in all aspects."

In response, Russia tried its best to calm down the Wagner rebellion that could have a impact on the front line.Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said Wagner's rebellion will not affect the progress of special military operations in Ukraine.In addition, Wagner personnel who had refused to participate in the rebellion at the beginning would sign service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner personnel who participated in the rebellion on the 24th will not be prosecuted.

Although the New York Times disclosed that the nine brigades of the Ukraine trained by NATO, about 36,000 troops have invested in counterattack, and the West is likely to add emergency assistance to help the Urban breakthroughs, but combined with the overall force comparison of both sides, relative to relativeIn the offensive of the Ukraine, whether the morale and deployment of the Russian army themselves will be affected to determine the situation of the war situation.

There is no doubt that the rebellion is undoubtedly damaged with Putin's personal prestige, and the pressure caused makes Moscow more sensitive to any disadvantaged news on the front line.As the core of Russian politics, Putin's personal prestige and coordination between different elite groups in China are an important guarantee for Russian political mechanism to maintain operation; once it is substantially challenged, tactical nuclear weapons may really be put on options.

In the long run, the rebellion is a wake -up of different departments for Russia's domestic armed forces, which cannot form an effective unified command and management.If this problem cannot be effectively resolved, the "Hou Putin era" has all kinds of concerns or surfaces in advance, and it is difficult for Russia to get rid of the ups and downs of the national movement.

The author is Shanghai current affairs commentator