Fan Zhijing: Isnt the Feds internal and calm?U.S. stocks may enter the pre

Source: First Finance

Author: Fan Zhijing

Last week, US stocks lasted good performance since June. The Fed suspended the interest rate hike cycle began in March last year. Signs of reduced price pressure and slower economic growth show that the tightening policy is impact.

However, the volatility of U.S. stocks and diving shows that the internal differences between the Federal Reserve may continue to become the market disturbance factor.As the S & P 500 Index stood on 4400 points, the institutional warning sound began to appear.

The Federal Reserve may store for interest rate hikes

The Federal Reserve passed policy resolutions last week to maintain the federal fund interest rate target range at 5.00%-5.25%. After continuous interest rate hikes within 15 months, the Federal Public Marketing Commission is as expected by the outside world as expected by the outside world.Drop the pause key.

Data seems to show that the pressure of American inflation is continuously relieved.The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4%year -on -year due to the improvement of the bottleneck of the supply chain and the decline in energy prices, far lower than the recent peak of 9.1%in June last year.In addition, the New York Fed's monthly consumer expected survey showed that one -year inflation expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%, a new low since May 2021.

However, at the same time, the strong momentum of the US labor market showed a weak signs of weak momentum. The number of unemployed golds at the beginning of last week was 262,000, which was the highest level since October 2021.With the changes in the supply and demand situation, although it is at a historical low, the data has gradually risen recently.The Fed hopes to see the labor market further softening to alleviate the pressure of wages.

Bob Schwartz, a senior economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that the decision to suspend interest rate hikes is suitable because the Fed needs to evaluate the impact of the past tightening monetary policy on the economy on the economy."The future policy depends on the trend and economic situation, especially the employment market. CPI is good news for the Fed, but core inflation seems to be high."

It is worth noting that it is similar to the information on the update version of the line. It shows that the information that may be transmitted twice during the year may be stated. From the latest statement, the Fed's internal position on the policy path does not seem to have changed significantly.The Federal Reserve Director Voller and Richmond Fed Chairman Balkin both expressed the idea of supporting further interest rate hikes in the latest speech.

The 2 -year US debt yield is closely related to interest rates, which is a 4.70%mark, rising and hitting a new high for three consecutive weeks.Federal interest rate fund futures show that the probability of raising 25 basis points next month rose to more than 70%.CFRA's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall put forward a cautious point: "I think the Fed will continue to target the market enthusiasm, and will continue to raise interest rates in the future. Of course, it will rely on data."

Schwartz said that in order to achieve price targets, the Fed needs to fully tighten the monetary policy and slow down GDP growth to lower than its potential rate to reduce labor demand and bring downward pressure on inflation.The signal is that the interest rate hike has not ended and the interest rate cut is still far away. "He further analyzed that the potential risk of doing so is that the price of price policies is too strong, and eventually the overall economy is at the cost of sacrificing the overall economy.In Schwartz's view, the Federal Reserve may not be able to finally achieve soft landing. After the economic growth rate of the quarterly rose this quarter, it may begin to decline at the end of the third quarter.

U.S. stocks may enter the resistance area

After the U.S. government solved the debt limit in early June, the U.S. stock market entered a new stage.

Technology stocks continue to be strong. Nvidia and Microsoft refresh their historical high last week. Technology stocks led by artificial intelligence will help the 500 index of 500 lines.Lianyang.The recovery of the cyclical industries such as industry and finance shows investors' expectations for economic prospects. The Dow is paid close to the high level of the year.Nuveen's chief investment officer Saira Malik believes that there have been many cash before. Under the guidance of technology stocks, there are some emotions that are afraid of missing.

The enthusiasm of investors is re -ignition.According to the statistics of Refinitv-Lipper, the net inflow of US stocks has reached US $ 18.85 billion in the past week, a new high since February 2021, and ending the continuous net outflow since late March.At the same time, the currency fund of the risk aversion tools exceeded more than $ 10 billion (S $ 13.3 billion), and the investors had bought it for seven consecutive weeks.

However, due to the Federal Reserve officials' eagle remarks, last week, the US stocks ended with a slight diving under the dragging of technology stocks.Monetary policy is still an important factor in disturbing market emotions.ETORO investment analyst Callie Cox said that if the Fed raised interest rates further, this may become a stumbling block in the stock market."Continuous high interest rates may tighten liquidity and further drag down economic growth. According to history, the Fed may be satisfied with maintaining high interest rates for a long time, even if they may not continue to raise interest rates."During the cycle, the Federal Reserve waited at least seven months after the last interest rate hike.

After the S & P 500 index exceeded the important psychological barrier of 4400 points, the cautious sound began to appear.Magisani chief strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his point last week that the recession has not ended.He predicts that the S & P 500 Index fell to 3900 points, which is equivalent to a 12%decrease from the position of the closing position last Friday.

Jiaxin Financial believes that recent technical indicators show that bulls may need to rest soon.From an optimistic perspective, inflation continues to decline, and the mid -term and long -term technical indicators are positive.However, the market is close to a complete valuation. The S & P 500 index has a long -term price -earnings ratio of 19 times, and the risk of recession has not yet been eliminated.Because it is in a strong market, it is not easy to determine when it will occur, but the situation of radical funds cannot be ignored.The market outlook in the next week is "unstable" and "moderate decoction", and the stock index may be close to the condition of the average return.