There is an old saying: The husband and wife are the same forest birds, and they flew each other when the difficulties came.Think back that the crown disease epidemic occurred three years ago after the global outbreak.At the time of the greatness, the allies fled each other, and even pushed each other to step on each other.
At the beginning, US President Trump was still proud of it, thinking that it was just a matter of China.But in early 2020, all the changes were changed. The U.S. epidemic was out of control. Domestic medical supplies were extremely short. They could no longer care about super strong faces and used naked power to intercept a large number of masks at the airports and warehouses of the allies (including Germany and Canada).These allies are of course furious, pointing out that this is contemporary pirate behavior.
In addition to the half -road interception, Trump also announced that according to the national defense production law, it is necessary to restrict the export of medical supplies such as masks that are urgently needed in China. The main producer of the global N95 mask is required to export products to Canada and Latin America.Canada has to help China in China that rapidly improves the capacity of medical products such as masks.This shows that the countries in the earth village, "Mountains and rivers are exotic, the sun and the moon are the same", and in the face of the common threat of the major epidemic diseases, no one can be alone. On the contrary, they must take care of each other. One party has difficulty in supporting each other.
But people are forgotten, and it is easy to be fooled by politicians and forgetfulness.Suddenly, what we smelled was economic decoupling, disconnection and globalization and "de -risk".How is this going?The epidemic clearly proves that countries around the world are the community of destiny. Why is the western world led by the United States, but it has a completely opposite conclusion. It is believed that it must be decoupled with the Chinese economy or "de -risk"?
The greatest experience lessons summarized by the world's countries in the world, seemingly: cannot be too dependent on a single market and supply chain.This was right.Unfortunately, it has deteriorated because of the addition of political factors.The deterioration is reflected in the so -called "Friend Shoring". This is the concept proposed by US Treasury Secretary Yellen early last year.Economy and exercise the means of geopolitical influence.Therefore, the United States must deepen economic integration with the country that it considers it is reliable.This is a explicit zero -sum thinking.
On the one hand, it is a native country or competitors that are regarded as unreliable countries or competitors.Want to diversify.The real diversification should actually be that all countries have established a closer interdependence relationship.
The United States requires its allies to do so to try to isolation and weaken competitors in economics and trade, which is actually a new type of protectionism.But decourse is simply unrealistic, because the economic and trade relations between the United States and Europe and China are too close.Whether in the United States and Europe and Australia, most of the amount of business between China is beyond our imagination. They have no more financial way than doing business with China.Therefore, verbally decoupled, it is actually impossible to break the road of wealth.
The Director of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, recently pointed out in a special article that the so-called de-globalization and actual situation are exactly the opposite. Last year, the total global commodity trade reached unprecedentedly unprecedentedHigh level.According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the trade volume of the United States and China reached unprecedentedly US $ 691 billion (about S $ 972 billion) in 2022, which was 24%higher than in 2019.This means that there is no large number of returns in the international supply chain.Where the company is settled in production, it still takes cost and quality as the primary consideration.Of course, the policy will change the current situation, but it is impossible to happen in a short time.
In terms of trade in China and Australia, in 2021, according to Chinese statistics, bilateral trade volume was about 231.2 billion US dollars, and in 2022, it was 220 billion US dollars, a slight decline, but this year showed a recovery momentum.The dollar increased by 10.9%year -on -year.
China -Europe, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, China's trade with the European Union in 2022 reached US $ 847.3 billion, an increase of 2.4%year -on -year.Recently, the European Union's senior representative and vice chairman of the European Commission Berry, a senior representative of the European Union's Foreign Foreign Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice Chairman of the European Commission, said that bilateral trade is about $ 2.7 billion per day.When he was interviewed by local media, he also talked about the so -called decoupling and de -risk.Will create a global crisis. "
However, Berrely vigorously defended "de -risk".He said that this is different from decircation, but to avoid excessive dependence."When the crown disease comes, we discovered that Europe itself did not produce heat and polygami at all (Paracetamol, the brands we are familiar with are Banner), all produced by India and China. In the face of great epidemic, this is a problem.We must reduce excessive dependence. "But he also emphasized how to divide the boundaries of decoupling and de -risk, so far we are still blurred, and we must be cautious and pragmatic.
Because I realized that the decourse was not available, it was risky to change the mouth, but everyone knows that the strategic intentions have not changed, that is, the gang gangs are confronted.Therefore, in addition to "Youkan Outsourcing", there are "Ally Shoring", Near Shoring, on Shoring, etc. In short, the so -called de -risk.Although this is not exactly what European wish, it is not the United States, and can only fight for a more credible hall that sounds credible.
But is it absolutely safe if you move all production back to your country or settle in the allies?Certainly not.The milk powder crisis in the United States last year was proof.The baby formula of baby in the United States is almost all domestically produced. Last year, one of the four major milk powder manufacturers in the United States, in addition to emergency recovery of products, ordered one of the factories to discontinue production due to product bacterial pollution. As a result, a rare shortage of milk powder was triggered.In addition to the U.S. government's emergency opening of milk powder imports, military aircraft also dispatched military aircraft to Europe to move goods for emergency.
But the risky geopolitical movement of Westerners seems difficult to reverse, so countries must also be fully prepared to cope with the possible risks that are here.Huang Xuncai, deputy prime minister and financial minister of Singapore, has already spoke first, pointing out that the so -called de -risk results will bring the same consequences as decoustified, and call on the country that supports multilateralism to speak and expressed concerns.
However, looking at the current situation, it may not be enough to speak alone.Asia -Africa and Latinarian countries must be blessed by themselves and mobilize this inverse.
Fortunately, we do not lack the due cooperation mechanism. For example, in the Asia -Pacific region, the Asia -Pacific Organization, Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization, Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement Agreement, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, etc.Singapore must combine other like -minded countries to play the effectiveness of these mechanisms, resist the wave of globalization and protectionism, and jointly maintain multilateralism and free trade.
The author is a former journalist, a former member of the Congress
