On April 27th, I published the author's "China is withering" -Conby discussed with Mr. Yi Fuxian.This article further explores how to deal with and resolve the crisis of population withering.
We must first be soberly realized that the low fertility rate is an ultra -complicated problem caused by comprehensive reasons such as modern society, economy, and culture. ThereforeIt is hope that through the welfare system, the problem can be solved once and for all.
We should also realize that the crisis does not only happen in China (it can even be said that the policy of only children is not the main cause), but almost all industrial modernization countries or regions, which are withered in the population.It is most obvious for Han and Japan.South Korea's total fertility rate in 2022 has fallen to 0.78, the lowest value since the relevant statistics began in 1970.Although Japanese data is not so miserable (1.27 in 2022), the number of infants born in 2022 is less than 800,000, which has also reduced to the lowest level in history.Moriko Moriko, a consultant of Prime Minister Kishida, warned: "If it continues, this country will disappear." Therefore, we should jump out of the narrow perspective of "Chinese characteristics" and examine the crisis commonly faced in this post -industrial era in this post -human posture.And explore "why" and "what to do."
Why is the fertility willingness of modern people lower and lower?The author believes that the first is the reason for cultural education.Mr. Yi Fuxian believes that "the population crisis in China has both physiological reasons and cultural reasons." In my opinion, cultural reasons (taking the general sense here) are the main causes of "more women postpone marriage and fertility".I remember that the former Prime Minister Koi Koi Koi Sonichiro once joked that: if all girls are prohibited from going to school, this problem can be completely solved.Although the joke is a joke, it also reveals a helpless realistic contradiction -with the improvement of women's education level, the higher the ratio of participating in work, the lower the marriage rate of women.According to the latest data in February 2023, the number of women employment in Japan has continued to rise, reaching 30.67 million, accounting for nearly half of the national employment population, which directly led to a comprehensive disintegration of the "male outside and female lead" family model that lasted for decades after World War II for decades.The potential.In the face of such high women's education and employment rates, no welfare policy can make up for and balance women's dilemma between occupations and families.
Secondly, cultural concepts have also changed.The modern wedding and childbirth crisis is largely the result of conceptual trouble.The concepts of the Confucian cultural circle are notasing, there are three concepts of filial piety, no possessions, big children, blessings, and homogeneous family countries.This can also be explained to a large extent that although the Chinese in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan have never experienced a family planning policy, the average fertility rate in the past 20 years is the reason why the lowest level (1.0 to 1.1) in the worldEssenceMore and more young people have regarded marriage and childbirth as private affairs that are only related to personal happiness and better realize self -worth, and are unwilling to associate with the destiny of the country, the future of society, and even the family inheritance of the family.
In addition, it is also worth noting that all countries or regions affected by the Confucian cultural circle have different degrees of education in education.This anxiety will inevitably greatly suppress the fertility of young parents.It can be said that the more severe the rolling in education, the lower the fertility rate.This has become another high -efficiency "contraceptive pill" outside of high house prices, and it is also a reason why the Chinese government vigorously rectifies the teaching and training institutions during the epidemic.
The author remembers that once at the Berlin Metro Station in Germany, I saw a giant advertising propaganda painting, and the happy and happy image of a German middle -class family four houses depicted on the painting gave me a great touch and made me instantly instantly.Understand that the concept of family fertility of modern Germans has changed, as if it is saying that "only two are good, the government comes to retire".Under the subtle influence of this kind of social pop concept, how can the government launch the welfare system and how much can it improve?
So, instead of spending high financial subsidies, do you have to try to start with people's ideas and change slowly?Why not start from children's education, to reshape the future young people's more comprehensive, rational, healthy and sustainable view of marriage and childbearing?As a Taiwanese parent said: "Children are not only our best heirs, but also the only carrier of social heritage." And "implanted" this concept into the hearts of future people, just like the concept we used to be accustomed toEssence
While we enjoy the freedom of freedom brought by modern civilization, everyone should re -understand the principles of freedom, that is, self -discipline.In other words, freedom is by no means just considering your own rights of rights, nor should he not hurt the freedom of others, especially intergenerational freedom.In a word, since it is a traditional concept of marriage and childbearing, it should be started with a fatal impact, then you should start with the concept and reshape it.This is also an effective means of the ultimate defense war of human civilization.
In the end, the author believes that there are two important economic pressures that have changed.The first is that with the globalization of the economy, the urban economic pressure that individuals will bear is getting higher and higher (such as high house prices that are daunting by young people), and at the same time, people's requirements for quality of life are getting higher and higher.In contradictions, people's expectations for life are much higher than the actual income level.This pressure or contradiction will further suppress young people's desire to marry and childbearing.To a certain extent, there will even be a "low desire society" phenomenon that Japanese entrepreneurs have said.Another kind of economic pressure should have been disappeared with the establishment and improvement of the modern retirement welfare system. It is what the Chinese call "raising children to prevent the elderly".
The long evolution of human beings has always been driven by the inherent logic or even instinct of reproduction.Because human nature instincts contains the nature of profit -seeking.As early as 2000 years ago, Han Feizi, a Chinese legal representative, pointed out in a blood: Even if parents are treating boys and women, they will be closely linked to their future interests and have more calculations.However, the modern pension system has completely solved the problem of the economic pressure of the elderly, so that young people have no worries and let go.This can also explain what Yi Fuxian said, "The decline in modern population is like a regenerative disorder anemia, and it is difficult to recover."
Based on this, the author believes that it is necessary to comprehensively and systematically review the retired pension system and make careful adjustments.Because the average life expectancy of human beings has become higher and higher, the system has already made the current financial situation stretched and unsustainable, and it also plays a role of salary at the bottom of the wedding. In turn, the increasing number of young childization phenomena will further exacerbate pensions.The crisis is destined to have no future.In this regard, the concepts of traditional Chinese families and filial piety may alleviate this problem to a certain extent.This is also one reason why British Prime Minister Blair called on the United Kingdom to learn Chinese Confucian filial piety to deal with the crisis of the pension system.
However, we should be soberly realized that many Confucian ideas belong to the predecessor. How can we expect to fight and resolve the most serious systemic crisis in modern times?Moreover, even the Chinese have long been "straightened away from scriptures", even in terms of marriage and childbearing, there are better than the West, which makes people sigh.But the modernity of the West has no solution. What should I do?The arduous challenges in front of humans are to how much we can return to tradition.
Whether it is the East or the traditional treasure house in the West, can we still learn from and correct the concept of the present?Perhaps the relative rational approach is to reasonably absorb some good traditions and wisdom in the Confucian community on the basis of ensuring the basic rights and freedom of individual individuals and freedom, and then find a road that integrates traditions with modernity, oriental, and western.Essence
The author is a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, a researcher at the Ash Democratic Governance and Innovation Center of Kennedy College of Harvard University
