Chen Guoxiang: Taiwans presidential election shaped and war overall situation

Taiwan will hold a presidential election on January 13, 2024. Lai Qingde, a DPP candidate, has launched a campaign.Hou Youyi wore a jersey.The three major party candidates started war on the battle seat, and a general election determined the overall situation of peace and war on both sides of the strait.This election is held in the context of US -China relations and unprecedented opposition between Cross -Strait and unprecedented opposition between Cross -Strait. The results of the election will have a significant impact on the World Bureau. Therefore, the world's attention is more concerned than the previous seven presidential elections.

Lai Qingde said that this election is not a dispute between unification and independence. This statement is basically correct, because the current advocacy of Taiwan is immediately unified with legal Taiwan independence. Only a few extremists tend to maintain the status quo."Anti -China" is conducive to the maintenance of the status quo, and the two sides will see each other.The claim and the Chinese are regarded by the other party as a surrender; those who claim to be strong resistance are regarded by the other party as provoking the mainland government.The distribution of voters in "Hezhong" and "Anti -China" will affect the voting behavior of voters. If the consciousness of anti -China is weakened and the proposal has become the mainstream, it will be conducive to Hou Youyi elected, and otherwise it will be helpful to Lai Qingde.

The Democratic Progressive Party has twice defeated the Kuomintang in the election. After the Kuomintang suffered a heavy hit, he tried to counterattack. Although he won overwhelming victory in the two local public office elections, the focus of the public at the central level election is how to fight against mainland China.Unified pressure and military threats.The Democratic Progressive Party is good at manipulating anti -China -China spells, and fights against China.

A new state appeared in this election.Now the haze of the war is shrouded in Taiwan. After the movement of the time, the DPP ’s anti -Chinese and American routes have caused many people to worry about the war that may attract the war, and it has been in power for seven years.There are also some corruption, so according to the polls, 46%of the people who look forward to changing the party have reached 46%.Last year's local public office elections, the Democratic Progressive Party defeated, the main reason was that many people were dissatisfied with the DPP's governing style; in addition, the Kuomintang's demands of the Kuomintang "voted for the DPP and youth on the battlefield" caused resonance.

The opportunity of the Kuomintang returned to governance revealed the dawn. On the one hand, after the local public official election won last year, the party's momentum has stopped and stabilized, and it has been inspired by party affairs innovation.However, Hou Youyi, a candidate for the call, was practical and pragmatic, and he was decent and decent, and was trusted by many people.He served in the police and municipal government for a long time, and made a contribution to the government. Although the government leader had a pattern and highly doubt, his service performance and stable style accumulated a sense of trust, and his tolerance was strong, and he could promote more promotion.Unity in -party combat foreign combat.

Lai Qingde's discussion as "theory of the two countries"

As far as candidate qualifications are concerned, Hou Youyi's experience is obviously narrow, limited to the scope of public security and municipalities; Lai Qingde has served as legislative members, executive presidents, deputy presidents, and chairman of the ruling party.EssenceLai is higher than Hou.Lai's main problem is that the will and ideas of Taiwan independence are too strong, and the mainland government cannot tolerate him as a Taiwan leader; the United States is also worried that he is rushing over and involved the United States into the Taiwan Strait.He thought he was worried and worried that he would attract the war.

Lai Qingde has publicly announced that he is a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker". His qualitativeness of Taiwan's current situation is that Taiwan is already a country with sovereignty independence and does not need to declare independence. As for the relationship with the other side, it is the Republic of China and China.The People's Republic of China does not belong to each other, that is, two sovereign countries are independent of each other, and Taiwan is not an indispensable territory in China.However, according to the Constitution of the Republic of China and the additional renovation provisions, Taiwan and the mainland are also part of the Republic of China, and emphasizing that the two are not affiliated, they are to hide under the signboards of the Republic of China, and Taiwan is independent.As for "Taiwan does not have to declare independence separately", it is intentionally creating a semantic political ambiguity, allowing the public to misunderstand that Taiwan is a sovereign independent country.The basic thinking and demands of Lai Qingde is that China and Taiwan on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are two independent countries. Like the United States and Britain on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, they have long been divided and they are not affiliated with each other.

This claim is completely unacceptable in mainland China. In order to stop the direction of this division of the motherland, he takes force.Relatively speaking, the claims of the Kuomintang and Hou Youyi are more in line with the Constitution and the status quo, and the mainland government can tolerate it.According to the law, the two sides of the strait belong to the same sovereign country, which is not independent of each other.But keep the space expressed by the Republic of China.The Democratic Progressive Party resolutely opposed the framework of the principles of the first China and identified the cross -strait parts of different countries. This is the reason why Lu Fang resolutely opposed and vowed to stop all means.

The Taiwan independence policy of the Democratic Progressive Party has caused cross -strait relations to tension and slipped towards the risk of murderous war. Many people in Taiwan are clearly attentive. Many people think that this election will be a choice of war and peace.This choice logic is very unfavorable to the Democratic Progressive Party and Lai Qingde, because this is the issue of avoiding war or attracting war. The DPP is generally considered a possible warrior.Hou Youyi advocates that "the Republic of China is our country and Taiwan is our residence." The original intention is that the two sides of the strait are not two countries with sovereignty and independence.Contradictions can ease the tension between the two sides of the strait.

Ke Wenzhe Gua Divide Effect

The Democratic Progressive Party's claims have been in line with Taiwan's mainstream public opinion in the past 10 years, but now Taiwan is in a war crisis. Most people want not only verbal peace, but to require political parties and presidential candidates to take out the specifics to ensure the peaceful cross -strait peace.method.Compared with the previous two elections, the current external environment of Taiwan has deteriorated significantly. Although the support of the United States and the international support for Taiwan is much strong, the mainland government has increased its military pressure on Taiwan.Military exercises are often meals, and several have slipped towards the murderous war.Many people have a sense of crisis, worried about the death of the war, and Taiwan is destroyed.Many people believe that if the DPP continues to be in power, it will attract the war and replace it with the Kuomintang governance.Whether the public generally believes that it remains to be decided by the performance of candidates in offense and defense.

Another major influencing factor in this election is the division of voting effects caused by Ke Wenzhe.In order to strengthen the prestige of the people's party and party, Ke Wenzhe obtained a generous growth momentum of the party, and he must use his body to campaigrate, and strives to divide the two parties in the middle and young voters.Due to the long -term criticism of each other, the Democratic Progressive Party and Ke Wenzhe have cut clearly, and the ticket sources with the Kuomintang have higher overlap.However, in the young voters, Ke Wenzhe has an advantage and hurt Lai Qingde.Therefore, both Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde will try to marginalize him in order to stabilize the source of the ticket.How to reduce our damage in the triangle opposite and increase the votes of the other party ’s division will be an important consideration for the two -party candidate campaign strategy.

Taiwan's election experts mostly believe that in the key issues of deciding to win or defeat, Lai Qingde is currently slightly upper hand and has a large winning face. Various public opinion surveys also show that he is slightly leading.However, due to the strong and stronger war on both sides of the strait, it has adversely affected the DPP and Lai Qingde; and the Kuomintang has actively strengthened shortcomings in a year and reshaped the image.The tug of saw in this election is bound to be fierce. The victory and defeat mainly depends on the Chinese discussion and avoidance of the two candidates.factor.

The Democratic Progressive Party is facing the war of regime. Under the stimulation of crisis awareness, the entire party is united and fighting spirit.The Kuomintang saw the window of returning to governance, and there was also a determination to fight.Hou Youyi has no competitiveness. However, the integration and unity of the party is relatively insufficient. The team's support is not as good as Lai Qingde. Whether he can ask himself to be blessed and overthrow Lai Qingde, it depends on his own creation.