The next day when he walked out of the New York Criminal Court, former US President Trump fired his political opponent and the current president.This time I took the RMB as an excuse.Under the leadership of Biden, it is likely to happen, which will be the biggest failure in our country's history. We will be reduced to the second echelon. This is too amazing. "At the end of the post, he added that common saying:"Let the United States great again! "

A previous day, when Trump spoke to supporters in Palm Beach Haihu Manor in Palm Beach in Florida, Trump also criticized the failure measures of the Biden government, including "the US dollar is collapsed and will no longer be the world standard"EssenceFor this remark, I want to say: "Mr. Trump, you really worry." In response to this issue, we need to simply sort out the current international currency and economic pattern.

I have mentioned a repeated concept of economics -Triffin Dilemma, which was published by American economist Robert Triffin in 1960.The Dollar Crisis) proposed that it was about such a paradox:

Due to the status of international core currencies in the US dollar, in order to develop international trade, countries must use US dollars as settlement and reserve currencies, which will cause currencies to flow out of the United States to continue to precipitate overseas.Long -term deficit occurs; the prerequisite for the US dollar as the core of the international currency is that the US dollar currency value must be stable, which requires the United States to be a long -term surplus country in international trade revenue and expenditure.These two requirements contradict each other, so it is a paradox.

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In fact, it has revealed the current global international currency and economic pattern: As the US dollar occupies a dominant position in the international currency system, other countries must use US dollars as settlement and reserve currency.As other countries that demanders, we must earn enough US dollars by earning foreign exchange in the form of foreign exchange.For the United States as the supplier, in order to ensure the international currency status of the US dollar, the US dollar must be exported in the form of long -term trade deficit.

Based on this, we can answer Trump responsiblely that his "RMB replace the US dollar" concerns is obviously superfluous.It is very simple. It is not necessary to say that supporting a country's sovereign currency becomes a national credit and military support for international currencies, and it is not necessary to be free to exchange. In a single point, China is still a typical manufacturing country and a typical export -oriented country.Instead of consumer and imported powers like the United States.Under the current international currency system, China does not at the cost of international trade deficit and frequent project deficits. Can its RMB lose?Can't lose, how can other countries take RMB to do international trade settlement and reserve currency?It can be seen that the RMB replaced the US dollar, which is obviously too early.

It is the United States. The current "re -industrialization" and "manufacturing industry return to the United States" strategy can easily get it into a dilemma: under the existing international industrial division of labor, emerging markets undertake the "de -industrialization" of developed economies.The transferred manufacturing industry has grown rapidly, and its international competitiveness is relatively obvious. The development of developed market manufacturing industry is relatively insufficient in competitiveness in the international market due to many factors such as high labor costs and heavy taxes.As far as the United States is concerned, although this realistic economic pattern has paid it at the price of huge trade deficit, it has consolidated and strengthened the dominant position of the US dollar in the international currency and trading system.

The problem is that the purpose of the United States' "re -industrialization" and "manufacturing return to the United States" is aimed at narrowing the international trade deficit. Trump even looks forward to achieving a complete international trade balance and even surplus.But it is precisely from this that the United States will inevitably fall into a dilemma.That is, if the United States "re -industrialization" and "manufacturing return to the United States" strategy is successfully implemented, the United States realizes the balance of international trade and even surplus. How can the US dollar output to the world at that time?How can the US dollar bear the responsibilities of the international core currency if it cannot be effectively output?At this time, the dominant position (or hegemony) of the US dollar in the international currency system will inevitably shake.

In other words, the United States must make some choice in the United States in the strategy of "re -industrialization" and "returning to manufacturing great powers" and maintaining the US dollar hegemony (international currency dominance): if the United States really returns to manufacturing manufacturing,The status of the industry's great country also means that the hegemony of the US dollar will fall aside -it cannot output the US dollar through the form of international trade deficit and regular project deficits.If you want to maintain the US dollar hegemony, it must accept the fact that the manufacturing industry continues to weaken, because only in this way can the dollar be output.But this means that the United States, which has lack of manufacturing support for a long time, will also decline in comprehensive national strength.Simply put, it is the two requirements of the United States' "re -industrialization" strategy and the maintenance of the US dollar hegemony, which contradicts each other.

The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist