In the first 10 months of this year, the scale of bonds issued by Chinese local governments has reached 8.6 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about 1.58 trillion yuan), which is a record high.The large -scale issuance of old debt "special reinsurance bonds.
Comprehensive Shanghai Securities Journal and First Financial Report, the data of the special bond information network shows that as of November 2, the scale of local bond issuance has reached 8.6 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year last year.Yuan.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the annual issuance scale of local bonds will be the first time to reach the 8 trillion yuan mark.The increase in scale and the large -scale issuance of special recycling bonds.
Data show that in the first 10 months of this year, a total of 4.3 trillion yuan was issued for new local bonds, a year -on -year growth rate of 74%.The issuance of special debt was issued 3.7 trillion yuan, and the issuance progress was 92.5%.
Among the new special debt issued, it accounts for more than 60 % of the infrastructure field.From the perspective of investment, it is mainly the fields of municipalities and parks, social undertakings, and affordable housing projects.
Data also show that since October, the special reinforcement debt used to repay local government stock debt has been issued rapidly. 24 provinces have disclosed a total of 10431 trillion yuan of special debt issued.The scale of debt exceeds 8 trillion yuan.
Reinforcement bonds are used to repay the principal or existing debt of due bonds or existing bonds. Due to the dense expiration of local government debt as high as 3.6 trillion yuan this year.Financing bonds debt.This is also generally considered to be used to repay the government's responsible hidden debt, thereby extending the term of debt, reducing interest burden, and achieving the purpose of slowly release local government debt risks.
According to the data of the Ministry of Finance of China, in the first three quarters of this year, local government bonds expired and repaid the principal of 3.2 trillion yuan, of which 2.9 trillion yuan was repaid for re -financing bonds, which accounted for the current repayment principal.The proportion is about 89%, which reflects the high dependence of local debt repayment.
From the perspective of quota allocation, the distribution of special recycling bonds in this round is inclined to provinces with relatively heavy debt burden.Among the 24 provinces of issuing special recycling bonds, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning (including Dalian) all issued more than 100 billion yuan; Tianjin, Guizhou, Chongqing, Jilin, Hunan, and Guangxi all issued more than 60 billion yuan; Heilongjiang was slightly super super superb;30 billion yuan, other provinces below 30 billion yuan.Among the urban investment bonds issued by these provinces, the proportion of repayment of the old and repaid interest debt is relatively high, showing that the debt redemption pressure is relatively large.
Wen Bin predicts that more provinces will issue special re -financing bonds in the future. The total issuance of issuance may reach 2 trillion yuan during the year, and the theoretical issuance limit for special recycling bonds will be 2.59 trillion yuan.
He also believes that considering that the new local bond quota has not been issued this year and the special refinancing bonds continue to issue it, the scale of local bond issuance throughout the year is likely to be around 9 trillion yuan.
