Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center and a member of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, said on Friday (February 24) that as long as the epidemic situation is no longer serious or other big shocks, China's growth rate has reached 5 this year.%Or more should not be a problem.
According to the surging news report, Wang Yiming said in the 5th Global Wealth Management Forum hosted by Financial and Economic Think Tanks in the Financial and Economic Think Tank that the positive effect of optimizing the epidemic prevention and control measures has gradually appeared, and the Chinese economy is significantly warmer.Many indicators have rebounded and rebounded, market expectations have continued to improve, international organizations and market institutions are generally optimistic about China's economy, and they have raised the expectations of annual economic growth.Overall judgment, China is expected to achieve a growth of more than 5%this year. If it can increase the efforts of reform and opening up, policy measures are implemented in place, and market expectations continue to improve. The actual growth rate is expected to be higher than expected.
Wang Yiming said that while seeing the obvious improvement of the economy, it is necessary to fully estimate the difficulties and complexity facing economic recovery, mainly facing the following challenges: First, the contradictions of insufficient demand are still prominent.After optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the suppressed consumer demand is quickly released.From the perspective of data such as tourism, catering, movies, transportation, and accommodation during the Spring Festival, consumption has rebounded significantly, but the continuous recovery of consumption still depends on the steady growth of residents' income and the continuous improvement of expectations.At present, residents 'willingness to save is still strong. In January of this year, residents' deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan (RMB, about 1.2 trillion yuan), a record high in history.
From the perspective of investment, the manufacturing investment is affected by the slow base and the slowdown of foreign demand last year, and the growth rate may fall.Infrastructure investment will remain rapidly under the support of special debt, but it will still be subject to project reserves and strengthening hidden debt supervision.Real estate development investment is expected to stabilize, and the tension of high -quality real estate companies has been eased, but real estate companies have not stronger investment and willingness to increase investment.
The second is that the repair of micro -subject asset liabilities takes a long time.The current insufficient demand is still a prominent contradiction in economic operation, but behind the three -year epidemic, the asset -liability statement of residents, enterprises, and local governments is suffered by systemic damage, which has caused residents and family consumption to be more cautious.Risk appetite has declined, local government investment and expenditure capacity weakens, and the credit capacity of the economic system is also declining, and the restoration of the balance sheet requires a process.
Third, the downward pressure of exports continues to increase.At present, the global economy continues to fall, the level of inflation is still high, and the risk of decline in major economies has increased.The global economic outlook released by the World Bank in January this year has reduced the expectations of global economic growth in 2023 to 1.7%. It is expected that the economic growth rate of the United States and Japan will still decline, and the possibility of euro zone and British economy will be more likely to fall into negative growth.
In this context, during the three years of the epidemic, China is significantly better than the expected export growth rate. This year, the probability will fall, and it will fall into economic growth or drag.At the same time, with the adjustment of the global industrial chain, foreign trade exports will not only be affected by cyclical factors, but also will be restricted by longer structural factors.
Fourth, the external environment is more complicated and severe.The spillover effect of war and western sanctions will further appear, high energy and food prices have grown at a high level, financial market fluctuations have intensified, and China's stable industrial chain and supply chain are facing more severe challenges.
Wang Yiming believes that the current improvement of economic operations requires the need to increase macro policies and injects the motivation to restart the economy.However, if these policies must be effectively transformed into economic growth momentum, it is still important to boost the confidence of market entities as an important prerequisite. This needs to strengthen the four aspects:
EssenceEnterprises are the basic cells of the economy and the source of power of economic growth. Promoting market confidence is to boost the confidence of enterprises and entrepreneurs, especially the enthusiasm of mobilizing private enterprises and entrepreneurs.For private enterprises and entrepreneurs, the stability of the policy, the fairness of the business environment, the protection of property rights and the protection of entrepreneur rights are the three main factors affecting the expected.Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the stability of the policy, to remove the institutional environment that hinders fair competition, and ensure that the equity of various ownership economic rights, equality of opportunities, and equality of rules.
Second, boost consumer confidence, speed up and expand consumption.Insufficient demand is the prominent contradiction in the current economic operation, and the impact of consumption is the most affected by the impact of the epidemic.To expand domestic demand, we must place restoration and expansion of consumption in priority. By expanding public service expenditure, the consumption capacity of low and medium -income residents with a greater impact on the epidemic is rationally increased consumer credit, and supports housing improvement and new energy vehicles.
Real estate has an important impact on residents' consumption.The real estate market recovery still depends on the recovery and smooth repayment of market sales. Therefore, due to urban policies, supporting rigid and improving housing demand, research and introduction of limited measures for loosening demand, reducing mortgage loan interest rates, and promoting the rebound of sales in the real estate market.
Third, boost investor confidence and effectively expand social investment.Investment is an important condition for steady growth and an important starting point for expanding domestic demand.The key to stabilizing investment is to mobilize the enthusiasm and enthusiasm of private investment. In response to the current low and sluggish private investment, we must make determination to liberalize market access and encourage and attract more private capital to participate in major national projects and the construction of shortcomings.
Fourth, boost the confidence of foreign -funded enterprises, and help foreign capital stability, amplification, and quality.We must focus on creating a first -class business environment of marketization, rule of law, and internationalization, further expanding market access, increasing the opening of the modern service industry, and implementing national treatment of foreign -funded enterprises.
