The latest survey of cooperation between the US -Taiwan think tank shows that most experts believe that in the next five years, the possibility of Beijing's pressure on Taiwan through isolation or blockade is far higher than aggression.Taiwan scholars participating in the investigation further judged that Beijing would not have excessive actions when China and the United States intended to ease the relationship.

The US Strategy and International Research Center (CSI) on Monday (January 22) announced cooperation with the Taiwan Institute of Defense and Security. From November 28 to December 15 last year, 52 American experts and 35 Taiwan TaiwanExperts conducted surveys.

The

Report mentioned that the vast majority of experts believe that , the most likely action is to be isolated or blocked in Taiwan; and the PLA's goal of achieving military modernization in 2027 will not affect Beijing's choice of isolation, blocking or blocking or blocking or blocking.Invasion in Taiwan.

According to the definition of the report, isolation refers to law enforcement operations led by non -military actors such as the Chinese maritime police or maritime militia to restrict commercial goods to Taiwan, and the scale is limited.Strictly restrict the flow of commercial goods and military activities around Taiwan; invasion refers to amphibious island operations to capture Taiwan's island.

The

Report also shows that there is a certain gap in the analogy assessment of Beijing in the next five years in the next five years.

For example, nearly half of Taiwanese experts believe that Beijing can flexibly take isolation methods to increase pressure on Taiwan, and prepare for subsequent blockations or invasion.In contrast, most American experts believe that Beijing will only take isolation methods only when they want to increase pressure on Taiwan but do not want a fierce conflict.

However, if Beijing's goal is to achieve unification in the next five years, 80 % of the interviewed experts believe that a highly dynamic joint blockade implemented by the PLA is the most possible situation.In addition, if the United States does not intervene or intervention is very limited, Taiwan may not be able to resist Beijing's blockade for more than three months.

Facing the possible dynamics of Taiwan and the legislators, about 67%of American experts and 57%of Taiwanese experts believe that this year may erupt similar to the Taiwan Strait crisis similar to 1995 and 1996.

For the pressure and specific time that Beijing may take, nearly half of the Taiwanese experts believe that if the election results do not fit Beijing's expectations, Beijing may take non -military stress operations on Taiwan before the end of this year; American experts are worried that Beijing will be in the futureLarge -scale military exercises around Taiwan.As for the possibility of blocking, isolation or invading Taiwan.

In addition, 40 % of the experts believe that Beijing will observe the policy of Taiwan's quasi president's policy policy in BeijingAttitude takes action; more than half of Meitai experts believe that Beijing will not observe its change.

Shen Ming room, director of the National Security Research Institute of the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, who participated in the investigation and research, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the reason why this report was selected was based on risk assessment and strategic prediction before the election of Taiwan.Consultation.

According to the reaction of Beijing after the selection, Shen Mingshi believes that most interviewees agreed that at least the possibility of large -scale conflicts in the Taiwan Strait outbreak in this year is not high.He personally judged that mainland China is currently facing severe internal affairs challenges. When China and the United States intend to ease the relationship, I believe that both parties will be more inclined to control risks, and Beijing will not have excessive excessive actions in the Taiwan Strait.

Different from the prediction of the US -Taiwan scholars in the Taiwan Strait situation, Song Wendi, a lecturer of the Asia -Pacific College of the National University of Australia, interpreted in an interview with this newspaper.The total military assets are concluded that the military strength between China and the United States is approaching.

He believes that in comparison, Taiwanese experts focus on paying attention to the surrounding Taiwan Strait, and pay more attention to the PLA's actual behavior capabilities.judge.