Trump wants to destroy domestic and international rule of law.He refused to pay for the supplier and contractor for a long time, explaining his personality: this person is a bully and will use all the power in his hands to rob the person he can rob him.
The U.S. presidential election in November this year is extremely critical. There are many reasons: this is not only related to the survival of American democracy, but also a proper management of the economy, and the latter will have a profound impact on other parts of the world.
U.S. voters face not only the choice between different policies, but also the choice between different policy goals.Although Harris nominated by the Democratic Party has not explained the economic agenda in detail, she is likely to retain some of the core principles of the President Bayeng President's plan, including maintaining competition, protecting the environment (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions), reducing living expenses, and maintaining growth.Strengthen national economic sovereignty and toughness, and reduce inequality.
In contrast, her opponent and former President Trump have no interest in creating a more fair, stable and sustainable economy.On the contrary, Republican candidates issued a blank check to coal and oil companies, and hooked up with Mask and Peter Thiel.This will cause the US economy to become weaker, more competitive, and more unequal.
In addition, although proper economic management needs to set goals and design policies to achieve it, the ability to deal with impact and seize new opportunities is equally important.We have understood the performance of the two candidates in this regard.Trump ’s crown disease epidemic treatment last time was a mess, causing more than 1 million people to be killed.
In response to unprecedented incidents, it is necessary to make difficult judgments on the basis of the most scientific basis.If it is Harris, then the Americans will get a thoughtful and pragmatic solution for the advantages and disadvantages of weighing the advantages and disadvantages of weighing and formulating a balanced solution; in Trump, what we see is a narcissistic crazy, likes to touch fish in muddy water, and fish touching fish.And resist scientific professional knowledge.
Please see his response to China Challenge: Proposal 60%or higher comprehensive tariffs.Any serious economist will tell him that this will raise prices -not only products imported directly from China, but also countless products containing Chinese parts.As a result, low -income Americans will bear the most cost.As the inflation rate rises, the Fed can only increase interest rates, and the economy will be hit with a triple blow to slowing growth, rising inflation rates, and rising unemployment rates.
To make you worse, Trump has adopted an extreme position that threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve (considering that he has been trying to destroy the independence of the judicial and civil servant system, which is not surprising).Therefore, he will once again give birth to a persistent economic uncertainty, suppress investment and growth, and almost definitely improve inflation expectations.
The tax policy proposed by Trump is also worrying.Looking back at the tax reduction policy for enterprises and billionaires in 2017, it failed to stimulate more investment, but just set off a wave of stock repurchase.Although Republicans have always liked to reduce taxes for the rich, at least a few people recognize that this policy will increase the budget deficit, so it additions to the sunset clause that has taken effect since 2025.However, Trump ignores the evidence of such "trickling" tax cuts that can not work and loses. He also wants to continue and deepen the 2017 tax reduction policy, which will increase the Treasury bonds by trillions of dollars.
Although populistic instigators such as Trump do not care about deficits, investors in the United States and overseas should be worried about it.The inflation caused by non -production promotion expenditures will further improve inflation expectations, weaken economic performance, and exacerbate inequality.
Similarly, the abolition of the iconic reduction of the Biden government's inflation method is not only not conducive to the environment and the competitiveness of the key areas of the country's future. It will also revoke the terms of reducing the cost of drugs to increase living expenses.
Trump and his appointed parental judge also want to abolish the strong competitive policy of Biden and the Harris administration.This approach will strengthen market forces and stifle innovation, exacerbate inequality and weaken economic performance.He will also cancel the student loan that is better linked to the income to increase the measures that have been highly educated by higher education, and ultimately reduce investment in the area that is most urgent to respond to the 21st century economic challenges.
This is the most likely to lead us in the Trump agenda, which is most likely to affect the long -term economic achievements in the United States: First of all, the second Trump administration will reduce the funding of basic science and technology.In the past 200 years, the United States has obtained a competitive advantage and the source of living standards; the economic strength of the United States is obviously not from casinos, golf courses or luxury hotels.
During the last term, Trump proposed to reduce scientific and technological expenses almost every year, but non -polarist Republicans prevented these budgets from cutting.However, this situation is different because the Republican Party has become Trump's personal cult.To make matters worse, the Republican Party has announced the jihad to launch a lot of universities in the United States, including the top academic institutions that promote the forefront of knowledge, attract the best talents in the world, and maintain the national competitive advantage.
Worse, Trump wants to destroy domestic and international rule of law.He refused to pay for the supplier and contractor for a long time, explaining his personality: this person is a bully and will use all the power in his hands to rob the person he can rob him.When he publicly supports violent rebels, the problem is even more serious.The rule of law is not only a thing we should cherish, but it is also vital to the good operation of economy and democracy.
Entering the fall of 2024, we cannot know what impacts will face in the next four years.But one thing is clear: if Harris is elected, the economy in 2028 will be stronger, more equal, and more tough.
Author Joseph E. Stiglitz is the Nobel Prize winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, a Columbia University -level professor. He was the chief economist of the World Bank and chairman of the US Presidential Economic Consultant Committee
English Original Title: What a Trump Victory Would Mean for the us economy
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
