Kurusk's operation shows that Ukraine has the ability to make Russia pay more costs, and Putin is more motivated to negotiate.In the past two and a half years, Russia can only obtain limited results at a very high price. Putin now must also understand when the negotiations are only carried out, not whether it is carried out.
Ukraine's bold attack on the Kurusk region of Russia has made a breakthrough in the battlefield for the country, and it is also another frustration that the Kremlin encountered.However, the operation did not completely change the battle.Even if the Ukraine occupied Russia's more than 400 square miles of land, the Russian army still made significant progress at the front line of the Basal area of Ukraine and conducted a violent air strike on Ukraine.Neither countries have achieved absolute military victory.This war will end at the negotiating table, not the battlefield.
The benefits of Ukraine invaded Kurusk may only be finally reflected on the negotiating table.By successfully proved that he can lead the war to Russian territory, Ukraine is even more confident in future negotiations.The United States and allies should now cooperate with Ukraine to make good use of this new advantage to formulate a route towards the end of ceasefire and diplomatic.
The window of diplomatic opportunities, even opened before Ukraine invaded Koursk.Ukrainian President Zelei Sky has always insisted that only after regaining all territories can he negotiate, but he has changed the prospect of diplomatic promotion this summer, emphasizing that "as soon as possible" to end the war through negotiations.After the Peace Summit held in Switzerland in June, he claimed to invite Russia to participate in the next meeting.Although he promulgated a decree for direct talks with Russian President Putin, he showed his willingness to contact Russian leaders.
The change ofZellennki's position has cleared the road behind Ukraine and Russia.A few months ago, the two countries almost reached an agreement to ensure the safety of the Black Sea Civil Channel.In addition, the two countries had originally planned to ban the attack on civil infrastructure in Qatar, but were subsequently interrupted by Kurusk's operations.
Ukraine's try to turn to diplomacy is completely understandable.It has been constantly losing territories in the past 20 months, and the people are gradually getting tired.Public opinion surveys show that nearly 50%of Ukrainians are currently in favor of negotiations.Although it is still a challenge to ensure that there is enough manpower use in June this year to expand the scope of military mobilization.Ukraine's economy continued to be affected by Russia's regular blows on its infrastructure, causing it to lose about 50%of power generation capabilities.At the same time, Ukrainian leaders have reasons to worry that the political support of the United States and Europe and other countries in further assistance may be weakened.
Kurusk's action can be interpreted as a sign that Kiev's diplomatic window has been closed, or the negotiation remarks of Zellennki are just covering the assault; but the facts seem to be the opposite.Senior Ukraine officials, including Zessky, clearly linked the Koursk operation with the increase in Ukraine's chips on the negotiating table.Before the start of the final war, the war is often upgraded, and this is likely to be the current situation.
Washington also opened the window of diplomatic opportunities.Given that President Biden has given up his election, he can add glory to his political heritage by helping Ukraine to achieve the final diplomacy.Although Ukraine has suffered more than three years of ruthless aggression that is nearly three years older than it, if a agreement can be reached, 80%of the territory still under the control of the Kiev government can be prosperous and developed.It is a success.Regardless of the end of the battle, the United States can continue to use diplomacy, politics and economic means to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including letting the Kremlin paid for it, no matter how long this occupation state will last.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, it will be wise to use the bigger weights produced by its military progress in Kurusk to start negotiations as soon as possible.Inappropriate delay is likely to weaken instead of strengthening Ukraine's negotiation strength, because its troops in Kurusk may be forced to retreat.Of.
The United States should help Ukraine to formulate effective measures to alleviate conflicts, and continue to work hard on the basis of the past negotiations of miscarriage to open the Black Sea Waterway and restrict the attack on civil infrastructure.Further measures may include specifying some rear areas, such as Crimea and all Ukrainian centers to prohibit deep strike zones.In the end, Ukraine and Russia can establish a non -contact area along the front line of 600 miles, and they are actually used as a wider suspension test area.
Ukraine and the Russian government can also agree to stop invasion in the future without disputed border, such as Russia's invasion of the Halkov region last spring, and the recent Kurosk operation in Ukraine.These measures can lay the foundation for long -lasting peace for negotiations.
It is certain that whether Russia itself is willing to take preliminary measures to ease the situation, let alone the ceasefire, and it is uncertain.When responding to the invasion of Kurzk, Putin announced that it is impossible to negotiate at present.But this means is still worth trying.Kurusk's operation shows that Ukraine has the ability to make Russia pay more costs, and Putin is more motivated to negotiate.Regardless of what kind of fantasies Putin had when starting this brutal invasion, in the past two and a half years, Russia can only get limited results at a very high cost. Even if he is now, it must be understood that the negotiations are justDo it, rather than whether it is done.
If the Kremlin refuses to ease the situation, the next US president will at least know that Russia has no interest in peace.This clear cognition not only helps to maintain the current international alliance that supports Ukraine, but also to attract more global southern countries (although Russia's aggression against neighboring countries is clear, most of them have rejected the team so far).Russia's stubborn attitude may even keep the distance between China and Putin, and put pressure on the former to seek diplomacy.
In view of the fierceness of the current war, the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement before taking office in the United States.However, the United States can still take gradual measures to significantly reduce casualties and damage.These steps itself is very valuable and will also create conditions for the next devastating conflict for the next US president.
Author Samuel Characle is an outstanding professor and senior political scientist at Russia and Eurasia's policy of Russia and Eurasia.
Charles A. Kupchaan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior researcher at the US Foreign Relations Council.
English Original: How to make the most of the kursk gambit
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
