There is a strange cognitive disorders in many people's climate policies in the past decade and this decade of economic issues.
In the last few years of the 2010s, the Trump administration proudly destroyed dozens of policies aimed at reducing US greenhouse gas emissions and building a competitive clean energy industry in China.It is prioritized to develop oil, coal and natural gas industries, not wind energy, solar energy and batteries. When Trump often likes to choose policies that intend to increase carbon emissions.
These options are cost -effective: American auto manufacturers have failed to improve the fuel efficiency of automobiles. In a few years, they fell behind international competitors, especially South Korea and China.
Today, the United States has not only fell behind China in hybrid power and electric vehicles, but also far from solar energy, wind energy, battery production, and the refining of certain minerals.after.China currently produces more than half of the world's electric vehicles, and the rapid expansion speed of Chinese auto manufacturer BYD has allowed it to open a factory overseas, including Europe, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and South America.
These are just the price of Trump as a president.If Trump returned to Washington, he had let the United States withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement again, and the United States re -joined the Paris Agreement under the leadership of the Bayeng government.He wanted to cancel the US clean car standard again.He also threatened to cut off the generous subsidy provided by the federal government for sales and manufacturing electric vehicles. This subsidy was part of the iconic climate policy of the US President Biden to reduce the inflation bill.Although his disgusting attitude towards electric vehicles has recently eased a little- "You know, because Elon supports me very strongly," he talked about Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Georgia last month.Say -but he still thinks that only the "small part" car should be electric.
Trump's policy will destroy the electric vehicle industry in the United States.His policy will allow China to consolidate its control over the global electric vehicle and lithium -ion battery industries, and hinders the special skills required by the development of the United States (or Europe and East Asia).
Although Trump verbally worried about the manufacturing industry in the United States, he was obsessed with fossil fuel -and the industry's control of him through political donations -to make him lose his future industrial competitiveness and lose his future industrial competitiveness.Judgment.A few years after Trump strangled the climate policy of the United States, the United States fell behind China. This did not happen by accident, but to a large extent because he stifled the climate policy of the United States.If he enters the White House again, the United States will face the risk of further backwardness.
When Trump took office in 2017, American auto manufacturers urged him to reduce the strict standards of the Obama administration on the regulations of automobile exhaust emissions.award.
But Trump finally walked so far to reduce the standards, so that some car manufacturers were surprised, either because the degree of decrease in standards far exceeded the expectations of executives, or because they were because of themRealizing that the reduction standards will make their company disconnect with the global market.By 2019, a few car manufacturers -Ford, Volkswagen, Honda, and BMW -reached an agreement with California and adopted slightly strict standards.However, other companies, including GM, did not reverse the direction of reducing tail air emission standards until the 2020 election.
This approach to the harm of American companies was obvious at the time.After Trump asked the United States to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, many observers (including me) had warned that China would seize this opportunity to become the leader of the future industry, especially in the field of renewable energy.After Trump reduces the exhaust emission standard, this situation is even more likely to happen.
Trump's only response to this risk is tariffs on some renewable energy products in China.However, he did not provide enough funds or regulatory confirmation that the American company could compete with Chinese companies. In fact, China consolidated its leading position in the field of green technology during this period.
Nowadays, China ’s solar panels produce more than 80%of the world’ s solar panels control about 60%of the world's wind power equipment manufacturing capabilities.Chinese companies manufacture 75%of lithium ion batteries worldwide.China also dominates the mining and refining of minerals required by renewable energy, electronic products and batteries.
China has obtained this dominant position because it adopts almost completely opposite Trump.Throughout the 2010s, huge subsidies, regulations and officials urged the combination of officials to encourage the vigorous development of the electric vehicle industry.Chinese consumers can get discounts on electric vehicles, hydrogen -powered cars or plug -in hybrid vehicles.It is easier for those who buy new energy vehicles to get a license plate than those who buy fuel cars.
Of course, China's supporting electric vehicle industry is not just for environmental reasons.China is different from the United States. The United States has abundant oil and natural gas resources, and China's energy is relatively scarce.China is the largest oil importer in the world. This status has brought it profound national security issues. In order to change this status, China has been seeking to develop electric vehicles and fuel -saving plug -in hybrid vehicles, and construction is more construction.There are many coal -fired power plants, nuclear power plants, solar energy and wind farms.
But Trump's coldness of new energy and China's investment in this field means that the United States is now anxious to catch up with China's leading position in the solar, wind energy, battery and electric vehicle industries.Whether it can catch up is still an unspeakable question.
Bynden government has been helping the United States to win this competition.Reduce the inflation bill to reward companies that produce electric vehicles and batteries or refine certain key minerals.The White House is said to be considering providing backing for mineral prices to encourage them to minimize and refine it.(China has adopted similar strategies in many industries.) How to He Jinli came to power, it is likely to continue these measures.
But it takes time to catch up.Although Ford Motor has a good start, it has not been able to create an effective running or profitable electric vehicle department, which has recently delayed the launch of its new electric vehicle platform to 2027.GM has also been in difficulty in starting its electric vehicle departments.Large -scale and bloated cars on American roads have created a serious security crisis. To some extent, the American roads are more dangerous than Russia. Part of the reason is that there is a large amount of fuel consumption on the road of the United States.
Can these failures be completely blamed Trump?cannot.After all, auto manufacturers in the United States have not wanted to transform to electric vehicles for many years.In addition, the United States has also faced some core challenges in competition with China: Compared with income level, gasoline in the United States may be too cheap, and consumers may be too rich, so that the United States cannot quickly popularize electricity as fast as seeing in China.car.
but not being able to build a competitive electric vehicle industry will bring long -term trade and national security concerns to the United States.In the next ten years, electric vehicles will become very common, and many countries will encourage people to turn to electric vehicles.As a result, the market of American auto manufacturers will continue to shrink.
More importantly, the battery will become a technology that has a chain effect on the economy and society like laser, satellite and semiconductor.Future military equipment -autonomous ships, drones, and even short -distance aircraft -will use low -cost, high -energy density batteries.(Just look at the success of Ukraine's use of cheap battery power drones to resist Russia's invasion, and you can realize this development direction.) The United States and its allies must be able to accelerate the large -scale production of batteries during crisis; electric vehiclesIndustry is a way to improve the capacity of modern economies.Without the electric vehicle industry, there is no ability to produce batteries in large -scale production under emergencies, and the United States will also lose its status of its energy superpower.
In a certain industry, a country may be back to the point where it is difficult to catch up.EuropeAlthough there are a lot of wealth and high education level, it has never developed the software industry comparable to the United States.Even the fossil fuel industry in the United States (although there are various defects, and high social costs) have ahead of other countries in the world in professional knowledge and pure technical capabilities.No one can minimize oil and gas like the United States.
But for the same reason, no one can make batteries like China.The future of the US economy relying on batteries will be as large as the extent of relying on hydraulic fracture and mining, if it is not greater.The United States faces the risk of never learning that these batteries and inevitably falling behind.Trump's victory in the election will help consolidate the US failure position.
Robinson Meyer is the author of an article and the editor -in -chief of the founding executive of Heatmap in the United States. This is a media company and mainly pays attention to climate change.
