Under August 6, under the cover of missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles, it was unexpectedly attacked in Kuarsk, Russia, and shocked the Kremlin and the world.This is the first time that Russia has been occupied by foreign regular army nearly 80 years after World War II, and it is also the first time since World War II invading a territory of a nuclear country.

Not only that, the Ukrainian army is far less than Russia in terms of national strength, equipment and troops, but through accurate strategic deployment and raid operations, it breaks through the Russian defense line.The strategic determination and execution of the basic trend of the Russian and Ukraine war completely.This also made Russia's face disappeared as a big country, and it made Ukraine and its allies believe that Russia was not invincible.

The cross -border raid of the Ukraine can achieve significant results in a short period of time, exposing Russia's strategic vulnerabilities and the predicament of President Putin.The Russian army has serious deficiencies in combat, intelligence, command and emergency systems.Putin's dilemma not only comes from external military threats and setbacks, but also must respond to domestic criticism and doubts, or even rebellion.If it cannot be effective, it may pose a serious threat to the stability of the regime.

While the Urpical Army was surprised, there was also risk and challenges of rush.It is true that the raid operation of Ukraine tries to obtain the initiative of the battlefield, disperse the Russian army, enhance the morale of Ukraine, strengthen international support, increase negotiation chips, and even respond to the fatigue of domestic war and criticism from Europe and the global southern region, as well asElection uncertainty and challenges to maintain the supply of Western weapons.However, the Ukraine faces a series of severe challenges in Russia, including military difficulties, and also involves various aspects such as logistics, geography, climate, and international community reactions.

In the issue of logistics and supplies, with the in -depth advancement of Russia, the supply line gradually stretches, becoming fragile and difficult to maintain.This means ensuring that the security of the supply line and the frontline troops are more difficult to get enough ammunition, fuel and food.At the same time, the Ukraine also faces the pressure of the Russian army with strength and geographical advantages.In particular, the advantages of Russian air power will make the Ukrainian operations more difficult.

In addition, complex terrain in different regions, such as cities, villages, and other complex terrain, limits the mobility of the Ukraine and increases the difficulty of combat.In addition, climate change in combat areas may further weaken the combat effectiveness of the Ukraine.And as the battle continues, Ukraine may face the difficulties of soldiers, especially when the number of casualties continues to rise, the difficulty of supplementing the recruits will be more significant.

Finally, Ukraine's actions have received close attention from international public opinion, and any news that is not good for Ukraine can affect the sustainability of international support.In addition, the Ukrainian army in Russia may also cause different reactions in the international community.These potential diplomatic consequences increase the complexity and uncertainties of the Urpicious army in Russia.

Besides, the French Napoleon and Hitler, which are more powerful than Ukraine in history, is more vividly remembered by the French Napoleon and Hitler in Germany.Once the Ukrainian army is siege, or the air defense system and logistics supply line are destroyed, the main force of the Ukraine may be "dumplings".

The key to the

The Russian and Ukraine War, the author is more inclined to consider the battle of people.Putin has been in power for more than 20 years. He has successfully consolidated the unshakable position of Russian politics through strict control of the media, removing dissidents, and modifying the local election system.External, he inherited the territorial expansionism of Tsar from the past, and was committed to rebuilding the influence of the Soviet Union.However, the Russian War made the Russian people's hearts from rejuvenating Russia and reappearing brilliantly.

If the Russian raid on Russia has intensified the division of political forces in Russia, the opposition will take advantage of the opportunity to rise and challenge its rule. Putin's rule will be at stake.To make matters worse, if the Russian people are deeply dissatisfied with Putin's long -term governance and choose to support Ukraine, the Ukraine will either go into Moscow like a bamboo, or can fight for war in Russia to fight a long -lasting war and further weaken RussiaEssence

On the contrary, if Putin can win the extensive support of the Russian people, the Urpical operations in Russia will be extremely difficult.Ukraine's troops are only "sprinkled with pepper noodles" on the vast land, and they cannot effectively control the occupied territory. In the end, it is almost inevitable.Therefore, no matter how the battlefield changes, the Russian and Ukraine's struggle in Russia is still a battle to fight for the people.

The author is a special professor of Zhejiang University of Technology