Comment: For the first time in the RMB, the first year of the RMB is weaker than the m

Source: Bloomberg

With the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB's bullish expectations are gradually accumulated. The focus of regulatory attention may have changed from depreciation risk to appreciation risk. Wednesday is weaker than Bloomberg statistics on Wednesday for more than a year.

On Wednesday, the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1307, which was 7 points weaker than the predicted average of Bloomberg survey. It was the first time that it was weaker than market expectations on June 21, 2023.After the release of the middle price, the offshore RMB expanded and declined. After the opening of the shore, the high point has dropped rapidly since the end of last year.

In the context of slowing inflation and poor employment data in the United States, the market's expectations for the Fed in September will become more stable, which is not sure that it is the interest rate cut.The United States will announce the preliminary amendments to the number of non -agricultural employment as of March for March. Wall Street generally expects to be greatly repaired, which will make the US dollar index overnight and fall off the 102 mark until the low in December last year.The Bank of Japan's consideration of continuing interest rate hikes has also maintained the Japanese yen in the near future, bringing assists to the rise in AA, including RMB.

Although the RMB trend has shocked since August, the increase is lower than that of the majority of AA, but the bullish expectations are gradually accumulating.According to traders, hedge funds in London and New York are buying USD/offshore RMB to see options.

"The People's Bank of China has guided the renminbi through the middle price not to be too strong," Liu Jie, director of the China Macro Strategy Director of Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out in the interview that the recent RMB trend will mainly depend on the US dollar, but it may run a basket of currencies.It is expected that the RMB will be traded between 7.0-7.1 at the end of the year.

At the same time, she believes that the regulatory layer is concerned about the large number of US dollars in the exporters of Chinese exporters. Once these positions settlement will cause the RMB to appreciate rapidly.If this situation occurs, the regulatory level may take further action, such as canceling the risk reserve of 20%of the remittance of remittance in the shore onshore, or increasing the reserve rate of foreign currency deposit.

In September 2022, in order to alleviate the pressure of the RMB depreciation at the time in September 2022, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business was from zero to 20%.Multi -dollar liquidity.These two tools have often been adjusted with the changes in the foreign exchange situation over the past few years to help maintain the exchange rate.

Regulatory concerns about the exchange rate too fast appreciation can be followed.According to Bloomberg reports on Tuesday, China ’s foreign exchange management department is reportedly paying close attention to how enterprises deal with exchange rate fluctuations, understanding export companies' foreign exchange settlement and triggering foreign exchange settlement conditions.

According to the estimates of Australia and New Bank, Chinese exporters have accumulated about $ 430 billion in foreign exchange income in the past two and a half years, and most of them have left the offshore market.Once these foreign exchange starts large -scale foreign exchange, it is likely to lead a wave of RMB appreciation.Khoon Goh, the director of Asian research, believes that although the US interest rate will be higher than that of China's interest rate in the future, the behavior of exporters will be driven by the expected expected to narrow Sino -US interest spreads and the US dollar.

Guan Tao, the global chief economist of China Banking Securities, also believes that due to the influence of international market fluctuations, the possibility of RMB has a rapidly appreciated appreciation of foreign exchange settlement and charging transactions.If the rapid appreciation and reappearance is reappeared, he believes that supervision should make the market play a role and tolerate a wave of appreciation. If cross -border funds are converted into inflow, the management policy in the outflow direction may be more active.

However, more analysts believe that the current renminbi does not have the foundation of a significant appreciation.

"Although exporters' foreign exchange settlement and seasonal factors support the renminbi, considering China's economic fundamentals and the uncertainty of the US election at the end of the year, we remained cautious about the trend of the RMB."Zhang Jiantai said in an interview.