Comment: The central banks debt sales such as the ＂Damocaris Sword＂ high -hangin

Source: Bloomberg

Author: tania Chen

The operation of the Bank of China to sell national debt is like the "Damocaris Sword" above the head of the bond market, but the risk of this sword may not be great.Bloomberg's latest survey results show that more than 70 % of participants believe that even if the central bank starts to sell national bonds, the impact on the market should be limited, and the rate of return on national bonds is expected to be 5-10 basis points.

Bloomberg conducted investigations on 14 traders and analysts this week.According to the medium value of the survey, the 10 -year national bond yield hit 2.25%and the 30 -year national bond yield hit 2.45%, which may trigger the operation of the Chinese central bank's opening of national bonds.

In terms of liquidity, most interviewees are relatively optimistic.Nearly 86%of participants believe that if the central bank sells national debt, liquidity will not be tightened at all or only tighten the margin.Only two interviewees are expected to become nervous due to the central bank's debt.

"The market has digested the risk of selling bonds at the People's Bank of China." Kiyong Seong, chief Asian macroeconomic strategist in the French Industrial Bank of France, said that the scale of the central bank's debt sales may be relatively mild, because its purpose is to prevent further rise in the bond market.It is not to greatly improve the level of return.

China's economic recovery has been weak since this year. In the context of insufficient demand, the financial system is abundant, but the market lacks high -yield assets. ThereforeRefresh the low point of 20 years.In recent months, the central bank warned the risk of the market many times, and it clearly gave the yield interval. President Pan Gongsheng once again prompted interest rate risks, saying that it is necessary to keep the yield curve of normal and tilted.Essence

The central bank announced last Monday that it will recently carry out borrowing of government bonds to the first -level dealers. In the exclusive reply provided to Bloomberg on Friday, the central bank stated that it has signed a medium- and long -term government borrowing agreement with several institutions.Thousands of billions.The 10 -year national bond yield rebounded about seven base points last week.On Monday, the central bank stated that it would carry out temporary positive repurchase operations as soon as possible, which once cautiously occupied the mainstream, but the debt market ushered in a rebound on Tuesday.

If the People's Bank of China has not sold Treasury bonds for the time being, it is expected to differentiate the market expectations of the bond trend in July. Six people think that the yield will rebound, four of which are estimated to rebound 5-10 basis points.The interval fluctuates, and the remaining three believe that the yield will decline.

Economic Base

In addition to the factors of the central bank's selling national bonds, most respondents believe that the economic data and real estate market are the factors that are most likely to affect the follow -up trend of the bond market; changes in policy direction are also mentioned.It is an important observation window.

From the perspective of Kiyong Seong, if there is a sign of recovery in real estate, the debt market participants may reset their current assumptions on economic development and yield level.Zhao Zhixuan, the chief foreign exchange interest rate strategist in Bloomberg, believes that better economic prospects and better loan growth may offset the demand for bond assets.

"The selling bonds of the People's Bank of China will push the yield, but the range will not be too large, because the act of promoting investors to enter the bond market to avoid risk and pursue income." Ing said Lynn Song, chief Chinese economist.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Song believes that if the economic and stock market recovery speed is faster than expected, some risk aversion may return from the bond market to risk assets, but if the economy and the stock market further weaken, "No matter what the Central Bank of China takes,There will be more funds flowing into the debt market. "