The US President Biden's performance in the debate last week was shocking. He faced increasing pressure and asked him to withdraw from the 2024 election.The influential voice in the party asked him to give up.Police investigations show that many voters also hope he will do this.So far, he is still insisting.

This trap has a formal name: make a promise upgrade of the failed behavior.A large amount of evidence shows that in the face of the upcoming failure, we often do not consider the plan, but have doubled their efforts for this plan.Being a fighter is better than being a abandoner.

One of the tragedies of human beings is that our brain is not used to make rational decisions, but to rationalize the decision that has been made.We insisted on the position without promising positions.Even if friends advise, we will maintain unhappy marriage.Even if candidates violate our principles, we will support them.

Some of the worst leadership decisions in our time can be traced back to promise upgrades.The US President launched a futile war in Vietnam, looking for a large -scale lethal weapon that did not exist at all, and many people were killed.As George Ball warned in a letter to President Linden Johnson in 1965: "Once we suffer from major casualties, we will start a process of almost irreversible. Our degree of involvement will be so deepSo that it is impossible to stop without achieving all goals, otherwise the country will be shameful.

This situation also happened in the business field: Bai Shida went bankrupt because the company's leaders did not buy Netflix, but upgraded the promise of renting physical videos.Kodak also made the same mistake. It did not turn to digital cameras, but doubled hard to sell film.

Promise upgrade helps to explain why leaders are often reluctant to relax their control of power.Losing the high position will make them feel that they are losing their position in this world.This has attacked their self and self -esteem.

Of course, we cannot determine which decision will eventually prove that it is correct.However, decades of research led by the organizer psychologist Barry Stone found that under some conditions, people are particularly easy to persist on the road of fate.When people have a direct responsibility for a certain decision and publicly support this decision; when this decision has gone through a long process, the result is close to it; when they have reason to believe that they can succeed, the promise upgrade may occur if they can upgrade, and it may happen that it may happen to happen.Essence

Surprisingly, Biden's current situation meets all these conditions.He announced the re -election to the world in April 2023.He has invested in the election for 14 months and has only four months left.He has also reversed the unfavorable situation before: Many voters told the polls before the 2020 election that he was too old. It seems that any other Democratic candidates are unlikely to win.

So what should the president do after making this major decision?So far, we know that he has called his family and senior assistant.(It is reported that they encouraged him to continue to run.) This is a very natural impulse, but it may not be helpful, because the person who is closest to the leader is the person who is most likely to be affected by cognitive bias.They have invested too many personal feelings for him, and it is too easy to ignore some warning signals.

Bynden needs not to support the network, but a network that challenges him -those who are willing to place national interests on his interests and have the ability to calmly evaluate his chances of winning.This task requires such people: they have no connection with the campaign; their judgment is impeccable, and the most important thing is that they are impartial; they are not worried that their career may pay the price because of this.(The ideal candidate at this location may be a professional prediction person. Because the predictions are different from the public opinion investigators, the polls tell us the idea of ​​voters today, and predictors are good at how the predictor's view may change.)

According to news reports, insiders are worried that forcing Bayeng to withdraw will have a counterproductive effect.This is a concern.Pressure can make people welcoming.A more promising method may be to first praise his ability to change through. Studies have shown that this kind of change ability can make people more willing to re -consider their mistakes.Secondly, ask him what the disadvantage of continuing to run for the campaign.The best way to break the stubborn thoughts is not controversy, but listening.When people feel they are listened, they become less alert and will reflect more.Third, ask him what he can change his thoughts.

"US President Biden, I admire your ability to build a bridge between the two parties. This shows that you are willing to make a difficult dialogue, and it is undoubtedly a difficult choice before you.What kind of suggestions do you give? Obviously, you have a lot of reasons for continuing to run./p>

When I discussed similar to the government and business leaders, the biggest difficulty was that the possibility of failure to admit that failed was real.They always ask me: If I give up, and then I hope I did not give up?However, in addition to the regret of exit, we also need to weigh the regrets left.

For Biden, this may mean letting him imagine that in January 2025, he lost the election with an overwhelming result: President Trump announced a large -scale deportation of immigrants and expanding administrative power, expanding administrative power, and expanding administrative power.He is committed to abolishing the 22nd amendment so that he can get the third term.

This approach can help Biden see how failure will rewrite his political heritage.History will record him as a person who sees him too late.

I hope some loyal people worthy of Biden -but not his team members or family -can help him think about these issues.I hope he can treat these issues with humility and integrity, no matter how uncomfortable it is.At a rally last week, he told the crowd, "I know how to say the truth!" The more important question is whether he knows how to hear the truth.

Rejecting to give up is not always a brave behavior.It is often stubborn and rigid.US President Biden, serving the country is not just to stand up.It also means the courage to make the throne.

Adam Grant is the writer of the U.S. Times, organizational psychologists at the Wharton School of Business School of Pennsylvania.He is written in the book Again.Translation: Jin Qijiao