The political system, the level of economic development, and the ability to resist risks of the member states of Yaiman are huge, and the dependence of different countries on the US dollar is also different.Relevant countries intend to reduce the dependence of major currencies such as the US dollar, and they did not consider gradually abandoning the US dollar and rushing towards other currencies. Differential risks are the main motivation.
At the meeting of the Minister of Finance of the Yajian and Central Bank of China in March 2023, the members of the Asianan members agreed to strengthen the use of local currencies in the region to reduce the current international major currencies such as the US dollar in cross -border trade and investment.Dependence.In May 2023, during the Leadership Summit, the Yajia'an 10 countries issued a collective declaration on promoting the payment of interconnection interconnection in the region and promoting the local currency transactions.
The research report from the Asian Development Bank shows that currently more than 80%of the export trade in Southeast Asia is denominated in the US dollar. Any change in the US dollar monetary policy will cause strong fluctuations in the Southeast Asian economy.Therefore, Asianan hopes to use more local currency in cross -border trade and investment to ensure financial and economic stability, and reduce the overflow effects of Western high inflation and other issues to impact on the region, which is understandable.
In addition to reducing the risk of foreign exchange brought by cross -border trade, other strategic considerations of the submarine trade national currency, including promoting trade and investment in the sub -safe region, establishing and strengthening the regional industrial value chain;, Preventing the impact and risks brought about by US monetary policy swinging; there is also a political risk that can avoid excessive relying on the US dollar, which is a lesson brought by the United States for financial sanctions on Russia.
The national currency is not completely "de -US dollar"
The political system, the level of economic development, and the ability to resist risks in the member states of Yaxian are huge, and the dependence of different countries on the US dollar is different.Relevant countries intend to reduce the dependence of major currencies such as the US dollar, and they did not consider gradually abandoning the US dollar and rushing towards other currencies. Differential risks are the main motivation.
Objectively speaking, in the current and future periods, it is impossible for Asian to abandon the US dollar.
First of all, the total US economic volume is still the world's number one, accounting for 25%of the total global GDP (GDP). In trade and investment activities worldwide, most countries still prioritize and use currencies.It is US dollar.
Secondly, the US dollar is still the dominant invoice and tool currency in international trade and finance.The advantages of the US dollar include stable value, recognized US economic strength, scale, and global geopolitical influence, and US Treasury bonds can be exchanged into cash at any time.These factors constitute a strong obstacle to get rid of the US dollar -centered international trade and financial system.
The proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from a high point, but according to data organized by the International Monetary Fund, as of the end of 2023, it is still as high as 58.41%, which is three times the second euro.The US dollar is still the most powerful and widely used currency in the global commodity pricing, international settlement and international investment financing.
Third, compared to major economies in the world, US financial and economy has strong capabilities to support the huge amount of US dollar issuance, global circulation and wide use, and various unpredictable affordability; othersThe economy and currency in the future for a long time, it is difficult to do this, and it is even impossible to compare and replace the US dollar's dominant position.
Fourth, the US dollar has mature, circulation and settlement systems around the world.
Asianian's expansion of trading settlement is to overcome major challenges.
First, the acquisition of regional currencies, liquidity, monetary policy transparency, etc. are lagging and immature.Regional currency lacks direct currency exchanges, and the financial derivative market that can hedge the hedge, and it is not easy for foreign entities to purchase domestic financial assets, which have exacerbated their dependence on the US dollar.Insufficient financial infrastructure and lack of economies have hindered the discovery of direct prices between the local currency transactions and settlement, as well as the direct price of regional currencies.
Second, the securities market in the Asianan region is suffering from scarce liquidity, high transaction costs, lack of standardization and regulatory coordination in market practices. In addition, the priority development of regional countries affects the attractiveness of financial assets in the Yajian region, and then affects trade.The willingness to hold regional currencies on both sides.
Third, the cross -border interoperability of the Asianan regional payment and settlement system is limited.At present, the Asianan still has to establish a unified standard and compatibility for the payment system between member states, and on the basis of this, it has established a wider cross -border payment cooperation system covering the application scenarios.
The direction of the national currency's efforts
First, in terms of payment, the Asianan State signed a local currency liquidation cooperation agreement to support QR scanning cross -border rapid payment, that is, creating the Yajian'an retail payment system.
Under the coordination of International Clearance Bank, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, etc., will jointly create a world -reinforcement of standardized domestic real -time payment services.Nexus Scheme Organization platform can make instant cross -border payment instead of establishing individual connection methods for each new country that operators connect.
In terms of currency transactions, the exchange costs between most regional currencies in Asian in Asia are still very high compared to the US dollar. The main reason is that the market of direct currency exchanges and related hedge tools is still underdeveloped.
In August 2023, the Minister of Finance of the Ayani and the Central Bank President's meeting approved the establishment of a trading framework within the scope of the Aya safe scope, which is a good start.
The second is to explore the creation of the Pan-Asian multinational central bank digital currency (M-CBDC) interconnection platform, which includes Aianan.
The Singapore Financial Authority launched the multinational central bank digital currency project in 2021. It was involved in the Project Dunbar of the Central Bank of the Central Bank of the Central Bank of China by Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and South Africa.This project has successfully created a multilateral central bank digital currency bridge (M-CBDC Bridge). It aims to allow financial institutions of various participants to use the central bank digital currency to conduct point-to-point-to-point-to-point-to-point-based sharing platforms based on distributed ledger technology sharing platforms.Cross -border digital payment reducing dependence on relatively inefficient traditional agency bank networks.
Another multilateral central bank digital currency bridge, which has also made progress, was jointly initiated by the National People's Bank of China Digital Monetary Research Institute, the Hong Kong Financial Management Bureau, the Central Bank of Thailand, and the Arab Emirates Central Bank.Essence
Both projects are supported by the Innovation Center of International Lleel Bank in Hong Kong and Singapore.If the interconnection and interoperability between the two items can be achieved, and at the same time, the Asian country covered by the platform, a multilateral central bank digital currency payment of cross -border payment to the US dollar can be usedIt's right.
Third, in order to increase the proportion of currency settlement in the sub -in -sed area, it is necessary to solve the differences between the national monetary system of the Asian Gyeongan region in terms of technology, operation and supervision, promote financial intermediaries' interest in providing regional currency transactions and settlement services, and inspire the city to do the city.Do a good job of discovering the price.
Fourth, it is necessary to further strengthen financial cooperation. The central banks of all countries in Asia in Asia can provide local currency channels to offshore entities to provide liquidity management and support.
The author is a guest professor at the National University of Singapore and Nanyang University of Technology
