Chen Guoxiang: The Chinese economy is still climbing and rushing to the road

The Mainland Government is about to hold the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. How to break through the economic dilemma when power is determined to be determined to be in one, and the route is not to be discussed.All parties are paying attention to what else to save the economy in the mainland government.

China's economic downturn has not disappeared.Last month's economic data showed that consumption has increased by the long -holiday holiday of the Labor Day. Infrastructure investment is exerted, high -end manufacturing investment has continued to increase, and exports are better than expected.On the other hand, real estate sales and investment are still low, people's confidence in consumption is still not solid, the willingness to invest in corporate investment is still weak, and the growth rate of local infrastructure investment is low.Such achievements are not good. In particular, the government has made every effort to take various blessing measures, but the effect has not yet appeared.

Infrastructure investment has indeed grew up, with a cumulative increase of 6.7%, which is mainly driven by electricity, railway, aviation and water conservancy investment.Clean power, railway, aviation and water conservancy investment, from January to May, a total of 32.9%, 21.6%, 20.1%, and 18.5%were 32.9%, 21.6%, 20.1%, and 18.5%.The production and investment of high -tech industries have also continued to increase.In May, the value -added of high -tech manufacturing above scale increased by 10%, and 4.4 percentage points of 4.4 percentage points above the entire size of the size; January to May high -tech industrial investment increased by 11.5%annually, which was more than 7.5 percentage points, of which high -tech was high -tech.Investment in the manufacturing and high -tech service industry increased by 10.4%and 14.3%, respectively.Export accidents increased by 7.6%annually, a significant increase of 6.1 percentage points from April.On the one hand, this is because the main market de -inventory enters the end of the world, and the inventory momentum is strong; on the other hand, the transformation and upgrading of China's industry, and some high value -added products have increased competitiveness. Automobiles and ships rely on the complete industrial chain and technological advantages.Export growth is fast.

However, insufficient effective demand in China has not fundamentally improved.The main problem facing the current economy is that consumption and private investment confidence is not confident, and it is expected to be low. Whether it is real estate, public consumption, corporate investment, and local infrastructure construction, no one can see the light at the export in the dark tunnel.Real estate sales and investment are still falling. In May, the sales area and sales of commercial housing were 20.7%and 26.4%of the month. The annual ratio of real estate investment was 11%, and the locomotive industry was still miserable.

The most critical folk consumption is just the sun, and it is still lower than the 8%before the epidemic. Residents' consumption is not demented from insufficient consumption confidence and willingness, and is also restricted by the ability.Even if it should be a hot -baking car sales market, the retail sales of automobiles in May will decrease by 4.4%. If the sales of new energy vehicles are not increased, and the vehicle is supported by the old and new policy, the decline in total car sales will be even more terrible.

Inadequate consumption confidence has led to changes in consumer models and structural changes.For example, residents reduce house purchases and consumption, and the consumption of goods is more cost -effective, increasing instant service such as tourism and performance, but even if the travel enthusiasm has risen, tourism expenditure has not increased the same growth, and tourism and shopping generally decreases.The upsurge of the people's repayment in advance has not been pushed, and it also limits residents' spending power.Due to the high mortgage interest rates and the decline in financial management income, many residents choose to repay the loan in advance, decrease in mobile funds, and consumption capacity decreases.

The willingness to invest in private enterprises has not recovered.Although the cumulative manufacturing investment increased by 9.6%over the same period last year, the main inventory equipment was updated.In addition, investment is still sad, and the "new three" investment growth rate of gongs and drums has slowed down significantly.In recent years, industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photoelectric products have expanded rapidly, and investment has increased high; however, the expansion of production capacity has expanded rapidly, which has led to an intensified supply and demand imbalance, so investment growth has slowed down.If private enterprises have not identified the profit of manufacturing investment have improved, how will the willingness to invest in enterprise investment increase?

Government investment can make up insufficient private investment.However, local government fiscal distress and low investment capabilities, such as the sluggish investment industry and road transportation industry in public facilities and road transportation. From January to May, the cumulative 5.5%and negative 0.9%compared with the same period last year, respectively.The land transfer income of the main sources of local government income is still declining, tax cuts and fees collected to boost the economy, leading to a decline in financial drawing capabilities, and restricting the willingness and capabilities of local governments to make infrastructure investment.Although the central government issued special government bonds, the progress of the lower allocation is slow, and the effect of boosting investment capabilities has not been generated.

Since the beginning of the year, the trend of economic downturn has not been obviously reversed, indicating that the government's use of regulatory tools has not greatly used the two major magic weapons.Worried the sequelae, so so so far.Although the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) fell under the line of Rongku, the price data showed that the condition of the currency tightening did not improve, and the signal of deepening was not as good as in the past., Low consumption, low price, non -mighty medicine is not enough to solve the deep and long -term difficulties.However, the depreciation of the renminbi will deteriorate the outflow of funds and reduce the effects of the effects of interest rates. Neither of the two cannot be as strong as the flying Guan Gongdao.

Financial data in May is also extremely ugly.The supply of currencies (M1) that consumers and enterprises can use immediately decreased by 4.2%year -on -year, the largest month -on -year decrease in the largest month -on -year decrease since the release of M1 data.The supply volume (M2) supply has increased by 7%year -on -year, reflecting the increase in M1 supply plus customer savings and regular deposits of customers with licensed banks.The growth rate of M2 reduction M1 expands to 11.2%of the record; the worse the growth rate of the two shows that the more pessimistic people are in the economic prospects, the more unwilling to consume and invest.This is the current major concern of the Chinese economy. If it cannot be overcome for a long time, it will cause the economy to lose vitality.

The author is the former chairman and senior media person of Taiwan Central News Agency