Source: Bloomberg
As the RMB against the US dollar fell to the weakest exchange rate to the US dollar in the market, some market segment markets have suspended transactions due to the limitation of volatility in the daytime.Unless the US dollar fell sharply, this phenomenon may appear frequently before the RMB seasonal dividend remittance pressure fell.
Although the Chinese banks continue to provide US dollar liquidity, after the end of the day, the conventional T+2 variety in the current market once was only one idea at a time of transaction restrictions at 2%.Many traders have previously stated that in the past few days, the practice of Da Bank adopted in the middle of this month and the practice of ensuring the transactions of various species of various varieties has been obviously challenged, resultingAnd the normal transactions of related drop -down products are affected.
This also highlights that although the Chinese -funded bank intends to ensure market transactions, as the depreciation pressure rises, it is difficult to maintain stability.After the stress of foreign exchange purchase in April, after the suspension of part of the period and the delivery product transaction, the Chinese capital in May once moved the front line to nearly 1.9%of the weak recipe.The defensive space of the line seemed to be stretched.
Traders pointed out that in the context of the rising demand for seasons, the US dollar sells for the US dollar in the shore market for most of the time to balance the supply and demand.The plate supports the RMB in a stronger position, and then gradually allows the price to weaken in the afternoon to avoid prematurely touching the volatility limit of T+0 and T+1.To disturb, and the intermediate price was unexpectedly adjusted on Thursday, the pressure of depreciation increased sharply, resulting in a situation where the theoretical price of T+0 and T+1 weakened was weaker than its volatility limit.
"" In the shore exchange rate, the limitation of volatility may further promote the expected depreciation of the renminbi, resulting in the rapid depreciation of the renminbi, and increasing the risk of exchange rate super -adjustment, "Zhang Jiantai, chief Asian exchange rate strategist of Ruisui Bank, said in the interview that followed by the shore on the shoreThe market may still avoid touching the spitting restrictions to reduce the further depreciation pressure of the RMB and provide sufficient liquidity to maintain transactions.
Enterprises tend to match the demand for different periods of delivery points according to their own cash flow characteristics. For example, energy imports are usually more popular with T+1 transactions.The Chinese -funded bank has previously adopted segmented defense methods to meet the normal foreign exchange needs of enterprises, rather than letting these markets fall into stagnation.
China currently lists the three varieties of T+0 to T+2 as the regular variety, which is limited by the same price of the upper and lower amplitude range of the upper and lower amplitude of the middle price.Affected by the current Sino -US spread, the US dollar/RMB drop point is negative, and the delivery date earlier than the two varieties of T+2. After considering the overnight period and tomorrow/the next day of the swap point, the transaction priceWe are weaker than the price of T+2. Therefore, when the RMB depreciates, T+0 and T+1 will first touch the volatility limit price at T+2 in the right period of T+2.
Last Thursday and Friday, due to the obvious weakness in the middle price, traders said that the purchase of foreign exchange in the daily day continued to be more, and the Chinese Dato Bank of China was selling the US dollar at a weak party at 7.26 yuan.The lower limit of the volatility is not far.The theoretical price of T+0 and T+1 calculated based on the drop point has significantly exceeded the lower limit of the volatility. Although the quotation of the trading center shows that the two varieties still have sporadic transactions not far from the lower limit of the distance, the relevant drop point points are within the date of date.No transaction.
Although T+3 and longer -term long -term products are not limited by the middle price of 2%, as the central bank has adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio in the central bank's remote exchange business since September 2022, even if the company conducts T+3Long -term foreign exchange purchase also needs to pay a one -year -old non -interest -free reserve with a nominal principal of 20%. Therefore, the short -term domestic foreign exchange purchase demand is more dependent on future products.
