European reorganization is first to achieve the balance of Russia's conventional forces; with Russia's nuclear forces that can defend the entire Europe, it can get rid of the dependence on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and effectively curb Russia's expansion ambitions.In short, a military and political independence Europe is conducive to world peace.
Since the beginning of 2024, the global security situation has further tended to be severe.The West has long been afraid of the China -Russia united for a long time.As the relationship between Europe and the United States and China continued to be tight, Russian President Putin visited China on May 16 to publish a rare joint declaration to express the determination of extensive cooperation and reshaping world order.This declaration was commented by Western public opinion formed the "Iron and Steel Alliance", or "Unholy Alliance".
European Dilemma: Balance, still take a car
China -Russia alliance is a serious frustration of the West in strategic.International relations are increasingly aggressive and exacerbate people's concerns about the outbreak of new world wars and nuclear war.But unlike the old Cold War, due to the serious differences in the research and judgment of Europe and the United States, Europe's credibility of the US security commitment is full of doubts; Trump's prospects for returning to the White House have further enlarged this doubt.European and American relations may have the prospect of major fission, forcing Europe to make a choice in the future of bilateral security -whether it is balanced or a stool?
On the eve of the end of World War II, the concept of US President Roosevelt's post -war world was to build a "one world" on the basis of the United States and Soviet cooperation. The European European European's strategic vision was not enough.Instead, the United States also needs to end the era of imperialism led by the European powers by promoting non -colonization, to create "Pax Americana" (Pax Americana ".
With the disintegration of the "Great League" of the United States and the Soviet Union and the Cold War, the United States, in view of the importance of Europe, also conforms to Europe's strategic expectations for the United States to provide security for security, and actively helps Europe for rejuvenation.The NSC-68 document released in April 1950 is not the real intention of curbing the Soviet Union, but on the grounds of the Cold War, through large-scale assistance and garrison in Western Europe, completely changing international relations within the West, and building a new new capitalist world.Free and democratic order to achieve permanent peace.
US security protection changes in European international relations
For Europe, people of knowledge have been realized before the First World War that the internal internal in Europe is fragmented, and the ethnic countries are opposed to each other. With the weak integration of their respective and its overseas empire, they are at all unable to fight against the two economic giants in the future -— The United States and the Russian Empire.To this end, European countries should integrate with each other to achieve the unity of economic and political.Germany stirred up the world war twice. In a sense, it was an attempt to achieve European unity in an imperialist way to fight against the desperate US economic hegemony.
After the end of World War II, the global wave of non -colonization and the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, greatly promoting the European integration process.In order to win the Cold War, the United States firmly supports European economic integration.For European Union's European Union's European Union, accepting American political leadership and military protection is the only choice.Unlike the Soviet Empire, the American Empire is not the product of the United States "premeditated", but the result of the European allies out of their own security needs.The security provided by the United States not only protects the European invasion by the Soviet Union, but also solves the "The German question", and has completely changed the European international relations based on the "balance" structure for hundreds of years.Essence
In this free empire system, the diversity of Europe's own development has also been fully respected by the United States.Under the U.S. umbrella, Europe can save a lot of military expenditures saved to build welfare countries and quickly grow into a "postmodern" civilian Power.
However, the United States' support for Europe -especially after the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union -it is always based on this premise: Europe must be loyal to the "Atlantic framework", not seeking to become an independent "third force"" ".If the strong European travels from the Atlantic framework, the realist "modern" the United States also needs to be balanced to the implementation of it.
After the Cold War, the rise of economic rise has greatly enhanced the confidence of Europe's pursuit of establishing an equal partnership with the United States.However, the dilemma of Europe is that it is difficult to choose from the strategic choice of check -in or a stool, because for a long time, Europe has built a civil power at the expense of military reserve.In the face of a greater gap with the United States, if you want to strengthen military hard power through great expansion of military reserve, whether from the domestic politics (the survival of welfare countries) or the response that the United States may makeEssenceTherefore, it is the most realistic choice for European defense policies (dependence on the United States) instead of fighting against the United States, which is the most realistic choice since the end of the Cold War.Even if Europe is determined that it is necessary to appropriately increase military reserve, the development of its national defense industry also requires standardized production and scale economy; and how to effectively integrate the defense industry throughout Europe is a huge problem that European future political integration must be solved.
European Dilemma Create Polarized Diplomacy after the Cold War
This dilemma has created the unique diplomatic concept of Europe after the Cold War: multi -poleization than the complete international unbroken government in the era of the imperialist era, or the single -pole order under the leadership of the United States after the Cold War, which is more conducive to the world.Peace and stability.Its policy meaning is that Europe supports the emergence of multiple force centers to restrain the United States together.This support is not unconditional. Europe is deeply influenced by "democracy and peace". At the same time, based on its own experience, it is believed that the rise of one or more values and political civilization with its close and diplomatic responsibilities is conducive to world peace.
Regardless of whether this multi -pole expectation is too advanced and idealized, the military hard power is insufficient, and the ability of European intervention in world affairs is seriously restricted.On the one hand, there is no strong military force backing. With the "soft power" methods such as economy and diplomacy, whether it is outside or inside Europe, it is far from being enough to resolve major international conflicts.On the other hand, if the United States is alone to implement unilateralism on international security issues, Europe will not have effective restrictions.
The Ukrainian war is a turning point that prompted Europe to pursue hard power.This war once again proves that Europe can only use soft power and cannot stop war.Once the United States abandon European defense and whether Europe can face Russian military pressure independently, it has now become a real challenge in front of European political elites.
It is generally believed that the four countries, which are relatively advanced, are enough to compete with Russia in conventional forces.The problem is that compared with the continuous reduction of European armaments since 1989 -the total strength of the total troops has been reduced from 3.4 million to 1.3 million in 2022. The Russian military power has expanded sharply in recent years.Can compare.For example, in early December 2023, Putin ordered the expansion of 170,000 to expand the total number of troops (excluding reserve) to 1.3 million, which was the same as Europe.
Not only that, Russia is also a super nuclear country with 5580 nuclear warheads. Britain and France with limited nuclear forces (200 Britain and 300 France) are only self -defense and are not enough to defend the entire Europe.It is impossible to cope with Russia's nuclear blackmail.In view of this, it is urgent for European large -scale re -armed forces and even developing independent nuclear forces.
From the after -war since the war, Europe's determination to seek strategic autonomy is hidden, but it has never been annihilated.As early as in the early days of the Cold War, the Adenner government of West Germany proposed a nuclear claim that the United States was rejected on the grounds of preventing the Soviet Union from stimulating the Soviet Union.
Soon after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Germany began to be bigIt is rare for many years to expand military reserve.As the EU political leader, France has long realized the necessity of establishing European independent nuclear forces.Earlier this year, France officially proposed the initiative of the time for war and providing nuclear protection for EU countries.These are the key steps that promote Europe to become the "third force" in the world.
European reorganization is first to achieve the balance of conventional power with Russia; with the nuclear force that can defend the entire Europe, it can get rid of the dependence on the US nuclear umbrella, thereby effectively curbing Russia's expansion ambitions.Having a strong military hard power is also a weapon for checking the United States, and it is also a powerful guarantee to prevent the internal division of the United States and Russia.
In short, a military and political independence Europe is conducive to world peace.
China can make a choice: glorious isolated
The author used the title of "the future of China lies in" ‘getting into the Europeanty’ ”(the speech version of December 1, 2023), explaining that China should use the Western world of freedom and democracy as the ultimate goal.This is the "semi -edge" Chinese era in the era of liberalism. It seek to modernize realistic choices, which is in line with China's long -term national interests.In another article in Europe: China should not lose natural allies (January 3, 2024) that Europe is a natural allies that China should not lose in terms of economy and strategy.
Alliance Russia is not the only or best choice in China.As a permanent member of the Security Council, China has a major responsibility for international security. If Mingli secretly endorses Russia's aggression, it will undoubtedly stand in historical misunderstandings.It is to push the important force that can be strived to be in the United States.Such a choice is really wise.
The actions of the dead sheep in China are the implementation of "Splendid Isolation" in diplomatic, that is, "not alliance with any country and maintaining freedom of action."
On the one hand, refusing to associate with Russia, advocating the state of Russia and Ukraine's border to the state before February 24, 2022, and will be the prerequisite for the final war negotiations.Losing the strategy from all aspects of China, the Russian aggression war could not be hit at all.China's timely play the key role of the end of the war, it will bring its own peaceful dividends -Europe, which threatens Russia as the number one threat, will inevitably be difficult to work with the United States to deal with China.This will make it more and more relying on the "Alliance System" to curb China's lone palms together.
On the other hand, "glorious isolation" does not mean isolation, but to maintain the greatest freedom of action.China can vigorously support European reorganization for reorganization and sponsor Germany to become the newcomers of the Security Council.At the same time, the practice of differentiation with the United States and Russia, the intervals of the interim in the European intermediary, promoting internal unity of Europe, and helping to political integration.
Deng Xiaoping once said: Europe is the power of peace.This conclusion is not outdated.A strong armed, independent Europe is still a peaceful force.A China, which is committed to enlightened political reform and the happiness of people's livelihood, is also a peaceful force.The mutual response of these two major peace forces is undoubtedly the cornerstone of the multi -pole world that is long -lasting and peaceful.Where to go, politicians in China and Europe make a decision!
The author is a Ph.D.
Visiting scholars at the School of Political Economics and Economics of London
