With two consecutive years of failure to fail in local parliamentary elections and the support rate of polls in the Labor Party, the Prime Minister Sonak from the Conservative Party finally made a decision to hold a national election on July 4 this year.From the perspective of the political rules of the British election, this conservative government can continue its ruling period to January 2025.Why is Sonak announced at this time to set the next election time at the beginning of July, which is less than two months old?The outside world believes that this is related to the inflation rate of "returning to normal" in the speech of Sunak's speech on the announcement of the election plan.
Economic performance is an important factor in social evaluation of a political party.If from the current economic indicators, especially from the British inflation rate, the Conservative Party has indeed achieved a certain success in suppressing the inflation rate. After all, it has risen from early 2021, until October 2022 reached 11.1% of the highest value of history.The inflation rate is controlled to 2.3%in April this year.
Good economic indicators will undoubtedly provide certain confidence for the Conservative Party to the upcoming election. However, will the healthy inflation rate be the savior straw that the Conservative Party has won the election?In other words, is the public opinion support of the Conservative Party just because of economic factors?The answer may be negative.
The core position of economic issues in election politics is undoubted.During the US presidential election in 1992, the Clinton campaign team used the famous slogan "The problem is the economy, the Stupid" (Stupid), which hinted to the voters that the old Bush should step down for the US economy.However, for the current British politics, economic issues may not help the conservative party to turn the tide.For the Conservative Party, the reason why it loses public opinion is more about itself. The chaos within the Conservative Party may be the key.
The chaos in the Conservative Party began during the Tresa May period.Cameron, who resigned from Brexit referendum in 2016, became Prime Minister of the Conservative Party. When promoting the Brexit process, it was inverted by colleagues from the cabinet.Resign.Johnson replaced after the resignation of Torresa May, and then won 202 seats to the Labor Party in 365 parliamentary seats and won the 2019 election victory.Under his leadership, the British Brexit.Even if Johnson realized the official Brexit of Britain, and the Conservative Party had an absolute advantage in the parliamentary seat, in July 2022, due to the sex scandal of Ping Che, the deputy party governor of the party, causing the resignation of the Conservative Party's cabinet, eventually led to Johnson resignation.
After Johnson, the Conservative Party ushered in a more dramatic prime minister -Tras.She resigned because of the "mini budget" and the differences of cabinet because of the "mini budget" and the differences in cabinet.In the Sunak period, although he learned from the lessons of the previous colleagues to a certain extent, he began to strengthen the unity within the party.Make problems.In April last year, the deputy Prime Minister Labo was resigned because he was investigated and confirmed that he had a bullying behavior. In November, the Minister of the Interior, Bredman, was fired by Sunak because of differences in immigration policy.
Looking back at the Conservative Party government since Torresa May, the chaos and tear in the Conservative Party may be the fundamental reason for its loss of public support.On the other hand, after the losing defeat in the 2019 election, Stammer condensed consensus in a gentle way, and showed the image of the whole party's unity to the outside world during the recently held local parliamentary elections and the next house reissue.
Therefore, after multiple efforts, the Conservative Party finally suppressed the inflation rate, and it is unlikely to become a life -saving straw to help it win the election in the current context.On the contrary, it is more likely to be the decent steps of the Conservative Party ending the 14 -year governance cycle.
The author is an assistant researcher at Chengdu Sendong Research Institute
