Source: Bloomberg
When the May Day holiday is over, the Chinese market is expected to achieve active start. The supporting policy position of the Chinese government will increase the motivation for the emergence of the rise.
Last Wednesday to Friday, the Chinese mainland stock market coincided with the Labor Day. During the overseas market, the overseas market was rising. The Chinese stock market was expected to usher in a wave of ups and downs.During that period, the Nasdaq's Jinlong China index rose by 8.5%; the Hong Kong stock market also closed the market on Wednesday. After the trading was resumed on Thursday, the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index increased by more than 4%.
In terms of exchange rate, the RMB may follow the rally of offshore RMB.As the dollar falls, offshore RMB has achieved the best weekly increase since this year.
With the recovery of profitability, policy support and cheap valuations to enhance attraction, Chinese assets that have been hit hard before are winning investors.The latest catalyst comes from the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government before the closed market. The Chinese leadership hinted that it would support the real estate industry and show their willingness to cut interest rates.
Shen Meng, director of Xiang Song Capital, said that the important meeting held before the holiday clarified the goal of continuing to deepen reform and expanding opening up, which will help promote the mainland stock market in the short term; travel and consumption during the holidays;The trend has also increased expectations for consumption recovery.
Foreign capital is also returning to China and Hong Kong stock markets. Although it is a tactical operation, it is still more sustainable and re -layout. There are still controversy.According to Bank of America Securities, the worst case has passed as far as the flow of funds is concerned.UBS strategist said that the profitability of listed companies in the Mainland is likely to bottom out in the first quarter.
In April, foreign capital increased its holdings of Mainland China for the third consecutive month, setting the longest continuous buying momentum in the past year.The rise in the Hong Kong stock market on vacation in the Mainland implies that global funds are full of prosperity.
To keep the rebound, investors will find powerful evidence of recovery in the consumption of holiday data.Citi Group predicts that, driven by the increase in travel and the recovery of per capita expenditure, compared with the level before the 2019 new crown epidemic, the labor holiday income of the travel industry will be "greatly improved."
Stocks related to travel and consumption have soared in Hong Kong transactions, reflecting optimism.Gaming operator MGM China Holdings has accumulated more than 12%on Thursday and Friday. The travel platform Ctrip Group rose more than 4%, and the hotel operator Huazhu Group rose nearly 5%.This also indicates that if the data is disappointing, it may lead to a rapid reversal.
"We need consumer data during the May holidays to meet the expectations to maintain the rise." BNP Paribas Asset Management Asia LTD., Zhikai Chen, the head of Asia and global emerging market stocks."Otherwise, it will trigger a new round of doubts about whether consumers are shrinking and becoming more and more cautious."
Monday will be the first trading day for the mainland stock market to respond to the Politburo meeting.Analysts are largely active to a large extent, stating that they should "coordinate the study of policy measures for digesting digestion real estate and optimizing incremental housing", which stimulates Chinese -funded real estate stocks in Hong Kong to rise.The meeting also required to accelerate the issuance of special government bonds and special bonds, and this is an important source of funds for infrastructure projects.
The offshore RMB against the US dollar hit the strongest level since mid -March last Friday, which also benefits from a more favorable global background.After the Fed's latest decision was considered not so eagle, the US dollar broke away from the recent high.
Zhang Jiantai, chief foreign exchange strategist of Ruisui Bank of Asia, said that the Politburo Conference has raised the government to put forward more comprehensive long -term reform and policies to solve the hope of some economic structural challenges.With the retreat of the US dollar, and foreign investors have weakened Chinese assets, the RMB may continue in the short term.
