Source: Bloomberg

Author: Ruth Carson, Naomi Tajitsu, Carter Johnson, Tania Chen

In 2024, the world's financial market encountered a force without any prevention: strong dollar rolling, and it would continue to continue.

At the beginning of this year, investors predicted that the US dollar would depreciate, but now, the United States' Heat's economy and high inflation forced the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts, and they have to "wake up".

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the US economic growth will be twice that of other member states of the Seven Group (G-7).Enhance the attraction of the dollar.And as geopolitical conflicts intensify, the US dollar is still the ultimate hedge.

The Bloomberg US dollar period has risen by more than 4%this year, reflecting the rise of all major developed markets and emerging market currencies.According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a popular trader confidence indicator pointed to the fall at the beginning of this year, but later reversed to the strongest level of bullishness since 2019.

Many companies are re -adjusted the US dollar strategy, and Vanguard Group Inc., the world's second largest capital management company, is now expected to maintain a strong US dollar.UBS Asset Management Corporation said that the US dollar is still likely to rise, although it is 20%higher than the usual level.At the same time, the Investment Research Institute of Wells Fargo has abandoned the prediction of "the US dollar will go to the end of the year", and now it believes that its rise will continue until 2025.

"If the growth and inflation of other countries cannot keep up with the United States, then there is no choice but to buy the US dollar," said Ales Koutny, the international interest rate director of Vanguard."Betting on the US dollar and the US economy is strong. It used to be a strong tactical transaction for us, and now it has become a long -term structural view."

The background of the

The US dollar's rise is that a series of signs show that there is no such slowd down in the US economy.The labor market is still in short supply, and manufacturing activities continue to expand.As a result, inflation has remained high, which led the Fed Chairman Jerom Powell and other decision makers to delay interest rate cuts for a long time.

New York Federal Reserve John Williams even proposes the possibility of restarting interest rates when necessary.

"In the beginning of this year, I was more like a short US dollar, but now the situation is different," said Rajeev de Mello, a global macro investment group manager of Gama Asset Management Sa."Powell's speech has absolutely changed the situation."