Since February this year, the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) increased for two consecutive months, but the increase in March was 0.6 percentage points in February, only 0.1%, and the CPI in the first quarter was flat.Price increases have been operating at a low level since last year, causing some people to worry about whether the Chinese economy will fall into shrinkage.
The current price of low price is structural, phased, and the result of the impact of multiple factors.Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the "Spring Festival", CPI has fluctuated year -on -year.In January, due to the high comparison base of the same period last year, the CPI decreased by 0.8%year -on -year; in February, the Spring Festival factors affected CPI by 0.7%year -on -year.Fall to 0.1%.From the March data, although the year -on -year increase in CPI has fallen, in the eight categories of goods and services that constitute CPIs, except for the decline in food and transportation and communication prices, the price of the other six categories of six major categories has increased year -on -year.In the first quarter, the year -on -year increase in CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year, which is consistent with the economic recovery trend.The core CPI of food and energy prices rose 0.7%year -on -year, maintaining a moderate rise.This shows that the recovery of residents' consumer demand has not changed.
Price indicator is a lag indicator of economic operation.At present, my country's economy has continued to rise to a good situation. In the next stage, as the base effect gradually weakens, the demand for goods and services has steadily recovered, and market confidence has continued to increase. In addition, some agricultural products have reached the adjustment point. Back warning, it is expected that the CPI is expected to rise moderately from the low position.
The operation of low price level reflects the problem of insufficient effective demand and the total supply and demand recovery.The current development of the economic continuous recovery is still unstable, which is mainly reflected in the lack of insufficient consumption capacity and lack of willingness of residents. Real estate investment continues to be under pressure. Civil investment confidence still needs to be boosted.It's still difficult, and so on.In this regard, we must adhere to the organic combination of the implementation of the strategy of expanding the domestic demand and deepening the supply -side structural reform, better overall consumption and investment, further play a key role in consumer basic and investment, and implement the recently introduced large -scale equipment updates and consumer products to change the new new new replacement.Action plan, accelerate the implementation of measures such as long -term special Treasury bonds, and continuously build a modern industrial system.Promote the operation of prices at a reasonable level by comprehensively using measures such as expanding demand, optimizing supply, deepening reform, and regulating reserves.
In terms of monetary policy, since this year, my country's monetary policy has increased the adjustment of counter -cyclical adjustment, the policy effect continues to appear, and there will still be sufficient policy space and rich tool reserves in the future.The People's Bank of China has recently proposed that the implementation of monetary policy should be strengthened in the near future to maintain reasonable liquidity, guide the rational growth of credit, balanced credit, and maintain the scale of social financing.Matching, promoting the moderate rise of prices and running at a reasonable level.
my country's development has a solid foundation, many advantages, and huge potential, and the trend of long -term good will not change.At present, my country is in the critical period of economic recovery and industrial transformation and upgrading. The supply and demand conditions are expected to continue to improve, the currency conditions are reasonable and moderate, and the residents are expected to be stable.From a fundamental point of view, there is no basis for long -term shrinkage or inflation in my country, and the toughness and stamina of risk challenges are sufficient.The problem of low price level needs to be paid attention to, but its impact should not exaggerate.(Source of this article: Economic Daily Author: Jin Guanping)
