The concept of a coup in science is: for the purpose of seizing the regime, the use of constitutions and laws (attempts) to control important national agencies or seize and kill important national leaders.The coup launched by the army called the military coup.
Wikipedia's "coup" is included in the riots of the US Congress, which is inaccurate.The purpose of those participants is to protest, vent their anger, and exert pressure, not to seize power; participants have briefly entered the Congress Building, but did not control Congress.Similarly, Russia's Wagner's mutiny is not a coup, but an ordinary mutiny.
Myanmar's military coup in 2021 is a very strange coup.Conducts usually have a fuse, but at that time in Myanmar did not launch a fuse of a coup.The 2008 Constitution of Myanmar stipulates that the army occupies a quarter of the people's houses and ethnic institutes in the two courts of the Federal Parliament.Because the constitutional amendment must be agreed by Congress with more than 75%, the army effectively controlled the constitutional amendment procedure.Military parliamentarians nominated a vice president and commander -in -chief of the Defense Forces nominated for the Minister of Defense, internal affairs and border affairs.
In the 2020 election, the National Democratic Alliance led by Weng Shan Shuzhi accounted for 258 seats (440 seats in total) in the People's Court, and 138 seats (224 seats in total) were three seats than the last election.The Federal Consolidation and Development Party supported by the military accounted for 26 seats in the People's Court, and seven seats were in the ethnic institutions, four less than the last time.The legal seat of the military remains unchanged.The political pattern has not changed significantly.
In 2021, Min Anglai, chief commander of the Myanmar National Defense Forces, launched a coup on the grounds of election fraud, arrested President Wen Min, State -owned Assets Weng Shan Shuzhi, and took over the power.Democrats headed by the NLD have established a national unity government and recognized by most countries and the United Nations as the legal government of Myanmar.The national unity government formed the people's national defense army as its own army.
Myanmar is one of the worst countries in the nation.There are 135 ethnic groups that are officially recognized, and the main ethnic groups are Burmese, with a population of 68%.The ethnic minorities are mainly living in seven states. From the West, the clockwise clockwise is Rukaibang, Qinbang, Kachin Bang, Langbang, Kiebon, Klunbon and Mencius.The indigenous Muslim in Ruoche is called the Kaman.The Myanmar government believes that the Rohingya is not an aboriginal, but an illegal immigrant from Bangladesh.The Myanmar military and ethnic minorities, especially with Rohingya, have serious conflicts.
There are similar places in neighboring and Thailand in Myanmar.In 2006, the Thai Army Commander Songti launched a coup and overturned the Daxin government.In 2014, the Army Commander Ba Yu launched a coup and overthrew the Nyva Dutong government.After two elections in 2019 and 2023, Thailand achieved democratic transformation, and the government was led by non -military political parties.
The same coup has occurred. Thailand did not fall into turmoil like Myanmar. There are three main reasons: first, Thailand has long -term elites and civilians, elite support the military, while the Burmese military is very isolated; second, King ThailandAlthough tended to the military, he mediates between the two factions, and the military dare not be too much, and Myanmar lacks authoritative third parties.National issues are prominent.
After the Myanmar coup, democracy and the people headed by the Democratic League resolutely resisted, and the military was rudely targeted. The ethnic minority armed forces took the opportunity to start soldiers and fell into a turbulent all over the country.The military's rough murder of democracy and the people aroused anger around the world.Although the international community has imposed some sanctions on the Myanmar military, there is no good way to resolve the country's chaos.
There are three prospects for Myanmar: first, the military defeats the national unity government and ethnic minority armed forces; second, the national unity government and minority armed forces defeat the military;The results of the year election may be re -elected.
The situation is gradually beneficial to national unity government and ethnic minority armed forces, but the military is still strong, and the first two cases cannot be achieved in the short term.Even if it is achieved, both parties have to pay a huge price.The third plan costs the least cost, but it depends on Min Angle to put down the butcher knife, or the soldiers with conscience overthrow him.If the military is willing to set the initiative, it can be pardoned conditionally.If the military heads can regret it, they will be good.The international community should increase the support of national unity governments and sanctions, and promote the realization of the second and third plans.
Under the dictatorship of Min Anglai, Myanmar democratic school and minority armed forces are in accordance with the current.This is a phenomenon that should be valued.In the end of the war, ethnic minorities have achieved merit, and they have obtained bargaining weights for national autonomy and even independence, becoming a major hidden danger of Myanmar's future territorial unity and national governance.In this case, it may also occur in other autocratic countries.The trouble should end it.The Burmese chaos is rooted in the military coup and the cruel target of subsequent.Can those in power not lead to precepts?
The author is Shandong Politics and Legal Scholars
