The long -lasting mainland China economy has been slightly improved recently, but it is still far away from the disturbance and recovery. Some deep and difficult problems have mines.
One of the positive signals is that after the manufacturing declined five months, the expansion was resumed in March.Driven by the manufacturing industry, exports have increased, and the profit of industrial enterprises has increased slightly.A negative signal is that real estate has fallen, and it is far from bottom. In addition, the pressure of currency tightening has not decreased, and private consumption has grown.Although the monetary policy releases the water, the problem is that the demand for loan loans is poor, and excessive liquidity has not flowed into the real economy.Prime Minister Li Qiang was worried about this and issued a warning of "avoiding funds from emptiness."
The general trend of economy is good. According to the information of the China Statistics Bureau, China's non -manufacturing PMI in China that covers the service industry and construction industry rises to 53 in March, which is higher than 51.4 in February.The service industry business activity index rose from 51 in February to 52.4, and the construction industry business activity index rose from 53.5 in February 56.2.Electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy "new three" outputs, but European and American protectionism is constantly heating up; electric vehicles with good prospects are the first.
The high economic growth in mainland China rely on infrastructure and real estate development investment in the past. In recent years, in recent years, in order to cope with the U.S. technology card neck, we must be committed to the development of the manufacturing industry, and strive to promote high electric vehicles and renewable energy high sources.The development of the technology industry.The United States and Europe are now worried that their related industries have been "blood washed", so they are preparing to build a protective iron wall for Chinese products; US Finance Minister Yellen recently released the excess production of Chinese green energy products, which will make the Western government government consideredInformation on high tariffs.
In order to get rid of economic dilemma and suppress the outside world, the Chinese government actively sought the manufacturing upgrade and technological innovation, but this policy portfolio may further exacerbate the concerns of China's internal and external capacity.Now.
The government, enterprises and private debt are still high, which is another concern.At the end of January this year, the Institute of Finance and Development of the State Finance and Development Research Institute announced that the debt nationwide (including family, enterprises and government) debt accounted for 287.8%of the country's GDP last year, an increase of 13.5 percentage points from the previous year.The historical high, of which the liabilities ratio of government departments expanded the most.The financial crisis caused by the collapse of real estate is hidden. The price of new houses in 70 large and medium -sized cities has grown negatively for 21 consecutive months. If house prices continue to fall, the bank crisis will follow.Among them, "Shadow Bank" is most likely to be thunderstorms, detonating the financial crisis.Among the largest private financial groups, the largest private financial group, the most powerful shadow bank, has announced bankruptcy at the beginning of the year.
The benefits of the economic dilemma are not obvious
The Chinese government has worked hard to deal with economic difficulties, and various countermeasures have been introduced, but the benefits are not obvious.Whether it is the reduction of monetary policy to guide bank loans, or bonds to expand finances to stimulate the economy, the dilemma of decreased policy tools and lower policy efficiency will only rely on administrative orders in the future, such as cancellation of purchase restrictions and lifting loans.It is urged by banks to speed up the approval of the priority of corporate loans to face the crisis.
On the other hand, the effect of external causes is not good through internal reasons.In order to ensure the victory of the world's political and economic hegemony competition, the United States first sacrifice trade sanctions, and then scientific and technological blockade.This year coincided with the presidential election, and launched a "harder" contest for China. Bayeng and Trump have tuned the door or aggravated sanctions.The House of Representatives first passed through an overwhelming votes, requiring Tiktok to be split with the bytes of the parent company within a time limit, otherwise it must withdraw from the US market.The Minister of Commerce Raymond has advocated a significant improvement in Chinese cheap electric vehicle tariffs on China or Mexico processing and import.The Biden government has continuously expanded the blockade of high -level semiconductor production equipment, biometric databases, artificial intelligence technology and other high -tech products to enter China, and also put pressure on the Netherlands and other countries.In the development of technology and products.
Faced with a wave of blockade and targets in the United States, China's technology and industrial development have been suppressed and forced to seek self -reliance.Chinese officials are determined to develop their own basic technology platforms, hoping that they can no longer adopt Western computer operating systems, key processor chips, semiconductor production equipment, and be out of the suppression of the United States and its AIA.In fact, in the future, technology uses "one world, one world (one world, Two systems)" will become the norm.
During the two sessions of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Chinese officials emphasized that in the future, it will fully promote artificial intelligence applications AI+and promote the autonomy of the supply chain. The goal is to prepare for possible further decoupling.Faced with increasing strict foreign pressure, China must accelerate the autonomy and innovative development of science and technology. This "de -beautifying" operation is bound to include abandoning American software tools and technology. In addition to semiconductors, AI, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and other key metal raw materialsIn the field, it is necessary to be able to be completely independent.
From Xi Jinping to descend, the latest policy theme is "new productive forces", which is to plan to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially disruptive technology, which has spawned new industries, new models, and new momentum.To weight.Traditional policies have been unable to lead industrial transformation, and we must move towards scientific and technological innovation. In addition to the previous intelligence and green energy, it also includes new materials, computing power, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, energy storage, power grid equipment, human -type robots, Yuan universe, brain, brainNew areas such as machine interfaces and biological manufacturing, these constitute "strategic emerging industries", that is, "new productive forces".
The Chinese government is very efficient, and once the direction is determined, it will be fully promoted.The company's operating ability is also considerable. In the past 10 years, a number of innovative high -tech enterprises, including Huawei, BYD, Ningde and Xiaomi, etc., are amazingOut, BYD's electric vehicle sales are in the world. Ningde Lithium Battery is called the king, and Xiaomi has become a new electric vehicle combined with high -end "green energy" and "intelligence" in three years. Such companies can become the pioneers of new industries.The problem is that in recent years, the backward development of "the retreat of the country and the people" has lost the kinetic energy of private enterprises. Unless the government and the people can work together, it is difficult to achieve great achievements.
Facing the slowdown of external force against the internal cycle, China is currently facing a decrease in economic growth. It is necessary to accelerate the conversion of new and old kinetic energy and industrial transformation and upgrading.In general, it is the past extensive and inefficient economic growth model, which must be replaced with a new growth model.The planning and mobilization capabilities of the national system are important, and the confidence of private and foreign enterprises is also indispensable. The Chinese government needs to do a lot of loosening work in this regard.The development of new productive forces.
The author is the former chairman of the Central News Agency
Taiwan senior media person
