During the first president of Trump, China had a greater misjudgment of him: whether it is the official think tank or the national senior management, Trump, who is a businessman, is a political person.Light, as long as the Chinese side continues to show him sincerely, "moves with affection and understands it", it should not be difficult to deal with it. Of course, the final result is very wrong.In fact, Trump "politics" than any previous US leader.
Although the previous U.S. government, although it was alert and jealous of China's rise, it was still concerned that the deterioration of Sino -US relations has become bad for the global economic development.Therefore, although friction is constantly, it can still maintain a relatively stable relationship with China.Unexpectedly, as soon as Trump came to power, once it was determined that China would pose a threat to the United States, it immediately started without hesitation of Chinese politics, military, culture, education, economy and trade, and technology.Even destroying global cooperation and stability is not expected.After him, Biden was "special rules and regulations." These two opened a new era of comprehensive and evil China and the United States.
Now the United States has flowed around four years later. Trump's rolling soil has become a high probability event. The global panic includes the West world. WorriedUncertainty.On the contrary, the official think tank in China is relatively calm. As far as the United States is concerned, "the old dog can't play new tricks", Trump and Biden are similar, and Sino -US relations are still controlled., Even on the side of Putin, who conflict in Russia, to split the western world and harm European interests, it will indirectly destroy the "big political strategy" of the Western camp unanimously curbing Hua, which seems to have some fantasy.
If the general logic of the development of things alone, it cannot be said that these views are unreasonable, but they ignore some characteristics of Trump's personal — this person has never played a card according to normal cards.Although Trump was born in a businessman, as mentioned earlier, he did not have no political mind.If he has made some kind of reflection since he stepped down in 2020, and more or less absorbed some "lessons" during the first period?
He may take a different approach in strategy, and in all aspects of the following aspects: although still adheres to the concept of "US priority", he also knows how to make some concessions on the allies to achieve the goal of collecting China together; it may be sacrificed to sacrificeThe interests of Ukraine have reached some kind of transactions with Putin, such as acknowledging Russia's interests in the Udong region and Crimea, and signed documents that NATO no longer continues to expand east, in exchange for some kind of curbing the Chinese alliance with Russia, Resulting in security pressure on northern China; strong shots, suppressing Israel's actions in Gaza, and promoting the two countries' plans to end the fire in the Middle East as soon as possible, so that the energy is completely shifted to the Asia -Pacific region, and it also restores the bad impression of the United States in the south of the world;Continue to encourage the Philippines and even Vietnam to be aggressive in the South China Sea, and in -depth intervention in the East China Sea and the South China Sea with Japan and South Korea, and implement the three sea linkage to curb the China;The image ...
The most worrying thing is that once this strategy of China is completed, it will be clear from the traditional strategic blur in the direction of the Taiwan Strait: Trump's characteristics of violence just coincide with Lai Qingde.Style, and then adopt a more aggressive US -Taiwan hook policy, such as publicly supporting Taiwan independence, sending military personnel and shipping aircraft to Taiwan, adding troops in the direction of the Taiwan Strait, completely breaking the red line defined by China, putting on the positive appearance of China and the positive appearance of ChinaThe situation of collision and so on.
The logic is so clear and simple, at a glance: Now that Qiu Hua and anti -China have become the largest consensus on the two parties of the United States and the United States, the Republican Party has previously used some practices to China.With the practice, the Republican Party will not "worship the rules"?
The above analysis and prediction seem to be too extreme. At most, it is a small probability event.But there is a law in mathematics: small probability events can occur.When Trump was approaching in 2020, Pelosi, then President of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress, was worried that Trump would fire nuclear bombs randomly at other countries under the disadvantage of the election, causing the world to chaos in order to be in the chaos.Focus on some kind of political interests.The author still believes that Pelosi is not unnecessary.Trump is indeed the kind of reckless politicians who dare to do and often have amazing strokes.
Also, in the past, the Republican Party was more pragmatic, and the ideology was not as strong as the Democratic Party, and it was also misjudgment.In fact, in the past 40 years, the initiative of deteriorating Sino -US relations from the ideology is Trump's Secretary of State and Republican Pompeo. He has to scold the Chinese government almost every three words;It is the Republican parties who are all shaken in China and the origin of the US "internal disease and external treatment"; on the contrary, the Democratic Party and the Obama's Secretary of State Hillary, Hillary, are more rational and pragmatic.
Is China ready for this?Even if it seems impossible, it is expected that the enemy is widening to do a good job to avoid misjudgment. Once a catastrophic black swan incident occurs, it is helpless.
Sino -US relations are indeed the most important bilateral relations in the world today.Once the two countries are out of control, they will suffer from the world, and they cannot be dragged into the vortex of extinguishing.From this perspective, not only China is "born in worries and died in peace", but the world should see Wei Zhi ahead, and strive to stop the catastrophic conflict in the great power.
The author is a professor at Xi'an University of Science and Technology
