"Can Bayon and Xi Jinping meet again?" It is my comment title earlier this month, the focus is on the question mark.This is a good reason: Last year's Bali Island Summit failed.Due to insufficient preparation and excessive emphasis on slogans (setting the "bottom line" for Sino -US relations that are in trouble), any effort to alleviate tensions was quickly destroyed by the United States in February in February.No one can guarantee that the meeting of San Francisco will be better.

The good news is that the San Francisco Summit is indeed improved compared to last year's meeting.The most important thing is that the two sides treat preparations more seriously this time.Not only the recovery of high -level diplomatic contact in this summer, US Secretary of State Brillin, US Finance Minister Yellen, US Secretary of Commerce Raymondo and Climate Special Envoy Clei visited Beijing.The two leaders can cooperate and eventually reach a key issue.

part of my previous comment is to provide a framework for evaluating the San Francisco Summit.My preliminary judgment the next day was based on the official caliber of the two countries, the press conference after the US President Biden Summit, the Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech on a group of American business leaders at the San Francisco dinner, and the in -depth reports of major media reports.Compare carefully.

I don't expect it, at least according to my model, most of the progress is obtained in quite obvious achievement, that is, the "low fruit".There are two fields particularly prominent: restoring the communication between the two armies, and working together to deal with the Finctini crisis.

With the tension of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, neither sides cannot bear the risk of military communication again like the balloon incident.As a responsible superpower, there is no choice but to re -establish regular dialogue between the two Ministry of Defense.The fentanyl crisis in the United States is self -evident. Excessive hydraulic drugs are one of the main reasons for the death of Americans from 18 to 45 years old.This has attracted much attention from China's Fantnea's front body chemical supply chain, and solving this terrible crisis undoubtedly has undoubtedly a bargaining chip.

Other low -ending fruits that have less influence are also taken off in San Francisco.In addition to jointly promised to increase direct flights next year and jointly acknowledge that they need to expand culture, sports and business exchanges, Xi Jinping also said that China is preparing to invite 50,000 American youths in the next five years to communicate and learn from China.In addition, Xi Jinping announced that it was surprising that China was preparing to continue to cooperate with the United States in the protection of giant pandas. The three giant pandas have recently left Washington, which obviously has resonated with many Americans who love animals, including me.

In my latest book accidental conflict, I focus on the importance of finding things in common to rebuild trust.In this era of conflicts in China and the United States, the common agenda is seriously lacking.Although there is no simple way to eliminate mutual suspicion, especially after experiencing the hostility of the past five and a half years, picking low fruit in San Francisco, which means that it has taken an important step on the road to solve the conflict.

I hope I can make the same judgment on the solution of the other two types of conflicts mentioned in the previous comment: the survival threats (climate change and global health) faced by both countries, and the improvement of the contact mechanism.The only exception is the so -called "sunshine hometown" agreement reached on the eve of the San Francisco Summit.The agreement promises to set up a new working group before the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), which is about to be held in Dubai to promote climate cooperation.In contrast, there is no meaningful breakthrough in artificial intelligence governance, but it is necessary to carry out bilateral talks to reduce the risk of advanced artificial intelligence systems.In terms of network security, human rights, and territorial disputes, no breakthroughs have been achieved. On these issues, both super powers have been speaking for a long time.

In terms of contact mechanism, it is completely diplomatic activity, and rarely involves the institutionalized model of steering deepening and maintaining relationships.Considering that the meeting was jointly promoted by the diplomats of both parties, this result was not surprising.However, in view of the failure of the Bali Summit last year, this made me feel disturbed.Although I think that superb diplomatic skills have prompted the two countries to change the direction of re -contact, cooperation, and establishment of trust, these techniques cannot ensure that the relationship between the two parties is tough and can withstand the unexpected turbulence.This year's unexpected turmoil is China's surveillance balloon. Who knows what will be the next?

In an era when leaders are constrained by politics and thin skin, I still believe that solving disputes between the two superpowers need more than just personalized diplomacy.As a supplementary conflict of diplomatic solutions, institutionalization is still absolutely necessary.Although it was not included at the San Francisco meeting, the US -China Secretariat was still my first choice to increase the tools to resolve conflicts and repair bilateral relations.

Although the San Francisco Summit surpasses the low threshold set by the Bali conference, the situation of conflict between China and the United States, especially economic, trade and technical issues that cause conflicts, still have deep problems.Surprisingly, in the statement of the four -hour summit, these issues did not pay much attention.In the end, for Biden and Xi Jinping, it is much easier to pick up the fruit.

The author Stephen S. Roach is the former chairman of Yale University, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Investment Co., Ltd.

English Original: Biden and XI PICK The LOW-HANGING FRUIT

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.