Military has replaced economic and trade and has become the new cockpit, stabilizer and stop loss line of Sino -US relations.In any case, the two nuclear powers must avoid the full efforts.This is not only responsible for the lives of countless people, but also responsible for world peace and security.
Xi Jinping and Biden held an offline summit again after holding an offline summit on November 15, local time, and did not issue a joint statement. It can be seen that there are not many consensus and a lot of differences.The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the White House of the United States each issued a press release. The conventions have highlighted their national fields, and the other party is conducive to its own statements. Comparing analysis can make up a more complete appearance, and you can also find some substantial content.
China and the United States establish three military firewalls
The expectations of the San Francisco Summit on the heads of the two countries are low, and the actual achievements are also small. The biggest highlight is to obtain three consensus to control military risks and establish three firewalls.
First, comprehensively restore the military communication mechanism that interrupted due to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.The Chinese press release confirmed that the heads of state of the two countries agreed that "restoration of high -level communication between the two armies on the basis of equality and respect, the Ministry of Sino -US Ministry of Defense Work Conference, China and the United States' Maritime Military Safety Consultation Mechanism Meeting to carry out the call for leaders of the Chinese and American theater."The US press release confirmed that "the two leaders welcomed the restoration of the communication between the two armies and the coordination talks of the US -China defense policy and the US -China marine affairs negotiation agreement. The two sides also resumed the telephone conversation between the theater commanders."
This is the focus of the United States.On November 12, the White House national security adviser Sha Liwen released the wind through interviews with CNN and CBS. The recovery of military communication between the two countries was the "primary agenda" of the San Francisco Summit.
Secondly, reiterate the unintentional military conflict.The Chinese press release revealed that the heads of state of the two countries emphasized that "cooperation in the areas of common interests and controlling competition factor responsiblely in controlling bilateral relations"; Bayendon also said that "the US -China conflict is not unavoidable."The promise of "inadvertently conflict with China".
The White House press release disclosed that Biden reiterated: "The world expects the United States and China to control the competition responsibly to avoid the competition from conflicting, confrontation or the new cold war." At the same time, emphasizing the consensus obtained by the two heads:At the level of competition in national relations, prevent conflicts, maintain open communication channels, and cooperate in the field of common interests.
Once again, the heads of state of the two countries are also the Supreme Commander of the two armies. They speak directly during a serious crisis, and in essence to master the final brakes.According to Biden's press conference after the summit, it was proposed by Xi Jinping, and he fully agreed that once the crisis "called directly, they would hear each other immediately."
The competition between China and the United States will inevitably emerge a large number of conflicts of interest, but the bottom line is not a military conflict.This is not only in line with the interests of China and the United States, but also the common interests of the international community.After all, the price of war is too large, especially the war between the two nuclear powers.On November 16, Biden said at a speech at the San Francisco APEC Business Leader Summit that he and Xi Jinping had agreed to restore the military communication to reduce the risk of misjudgment, and the participants quickly welcomed it with warm applause.
has clearly knew the other party's unintentional military conflict
The best evidence is the dedication, professional, and professional behavior of the Chinese and American armed forces before and after the US presidential election in 2020.Due to the significantly higher transparency of the U.S. military, the information disclosed was significantly more. On October 30, 2020, and January 8, 2021, the then Chairman of the United States Chief of Staff Mili Two Secrets The Secretary of the China Central Military Commission's co -chief of staff Li LiFormed, avoid misjudgment of both sides, wipe the gun and get angry.The first time was four days before the U.S. presidential election called Miri to make a call; the second was that the US Congress was required by the Chinese side after the U.S. Congress was violently impacted by Trump's supporters.
China may cause military instability in the confusion of the United States, and Trump may have worried about the war. Therefore, the highest level of the US military calls and communicates, picks up the cards, eases tensions, and maintains strategic stability. "Ensure that international order will not occur.Historical cracks, the United States will not start war with China or other countries, nor will they use nuclear weapons. "
Milly assured Li Zuocheng in the call that the United States is stable and will not launch an attack; in case the attack, he will report the opponent in advance.This heavy commitment, except for Trump's leaving president to learn concurrent, is generally not regarded as a rebels in the US Congress and China.On September 28, 2021, Mili explained in the testimony of the Senate Military Commission that his two secrets were not personal behaviors, and eight and 11 were participated;Two secrets convey the same information to the Chinese side, "the United States will not launch an attack on China."
Milly also explicitly demanded subordinates. If Trump ordered a nuclear attack, they must notify him first; and discuss how to keep vigilance with senior officials such as the Central Intelligence Bureau and director of the National Security Bureau and deal with Trump together.Irrational behavior.
On January 8, 2021, Trump fans captured the Mountains of Congress two days later. Perlis called Mili called Mili said that Trump was "crazy" and asked how to prevent the "unstable president" launch.Nuclear strike.Obviously, Pelosi was unwilling to step down after 12 days after the U.S. military did not want to have a war with any country, especially the nuclear war.
Pelosi has long anti -Communist and anti -China; in the nuclear country, Britain, France, and the United States are allies and will not erupt war. Russia's nuclear arsenal is equivalent to the United States.There is no need to worry about war; the huge conventional military forces in the United States can easily crush all non -nuclear military countries.Therefore, if the United States first issues a nuclear blow, China is indeed the highest.
The performance in the political crisis of Milly and Pelosi in the century of the United States can be judged that the United States does have no intention to take the initiative to fight against China.When the political situation is turbulent, the highest generals of the U.S. military can actively explain and conford to the Chinese side. Do not misjudge it. Long -term anti -Chinese people like Pelosi are worried that the president will fight the nuclear war.The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party will be allowed to engage in radical "Taiwan independence" and drag the United States into the war with China.
It won't collapse even if the gun is wiped away
Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, became a special envoy of Tsai Ing -wen this year to attend the APEC event.On November 17, he affirmed that China and the United States agreed to restore military communication agreements may improve the stability of the Taiwan Strait.The author's opinion, without this summit and no military communication, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is also stable enough. China and the United States have no intention of erupted military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, and will not collapse.
With the enhancement of China's military strength and self -confidence, the scope of military aircraft warship control has expanded, and the control capabilities of the adjacent sea area or exclusive economic zone have also increased.Coupled with the frequent hype of the media, some ignorant and ulterior motives always have a fuss.In fact, you don't have to be nervous, the sky can't fall, let alone fall.Because this kind of friction is still very far away from the fire, the distance from the full war is even more out of reach.China -US military conflicts can be divided into at least 10 levels from bottom to top. The higher the risk, the more the dead, the greater the damage, and the lower the probability.
The first level is that the US warships and military machines adhere to the "freedom of navigation" and enter the neighboring sea of the Xisha Islands and the Nansha Islands in China. Chinese warships and military aircraft are monitored or expelled.The third level is one party that opens the fire control radar and locks the opponent's warning; the fourth level is a warning of one party's launch of the air firing; the fifth level is a real -firing, or a conventional missile, or a torpedo attacking the opponent's warship military aircraft; the sixth level; the sixth levelIt is a conventional missile saturated attacking the opponent's military aircraft and non -aircraft carrier warships; the seventh level is the conventional missile attacking the opponent; the eighth levelIt is its own aircraft carrier strike group being fired or hit, conventional missile saturated attacks or tactical nuclear weapons to retaliate against the entire aircraft carrier strike group; the ninth level is an intercontinental missile with nuclear warhead attacking the opponent's homeland;Missile saturated attacking the opponent.
Even if there are conflicts in the Chinese and American troops, the ninth to 10th attack will not happen to the opponent's homeland, because it will inevitably lead to peer retaliation, and both sides cannot bear it;What weapons are the first shots, the ending of the end, that is, the aircraft carrier strike groups of the two parties are all out, and the losses are heavy.
As long as a strategic nuclear weapon is used to attack the opponent's home, there will be no comprehensive wars, the situation will not collapse, and there will be endless world.China and the United States have very strict control over the first shot. Emergency procedures will be initiated when the first to three levels of friction occur, and it is difficult to advance to the fourth level.Direct military conflicts have not occurred in the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union for more than 40 years.
The current situation of the Taiwan Strait is in line with national interests outside China
In the past 40 years of China's reform and opening up, economic and trade has long been a cockpit stone and propeller for Sino -US relations.This has become history.In April 2018, the Nuclear Crisis was relieved. Trump and Kim Jong -un were brewing the first head of state. He thought that he had no need to help China. He had not been demolished by the river before the river was not required to launch a trade war against China.
After the Bayeng government took office, he still maintained the Trump administration's tariffs on China and continued to increase the export control of high -tech to China.Biden clearly told Xi Jinping in the San Francisco Summit that "the United States and China are in competition."The positioning of the relationship between the two countries does not meet China's interests, but it is in line with the strategic interests of the United States to safeguard global overlords. At the same time, it means at least 20 years in the future. Before the unspeakable Sino -US relations, the two sides have continued to rub, and economic, trade and technology will be the first.
Fortunately, the military has replaced economic and trade as the new cockpit, stabilizer and stop loss line of Sino -US relations.In any case, the two nuclear powers must avoid the full efforts.This is not only responsible for the lives of countless people, but also responsible for world peace and security.
The biggest risk of military conflicts between the two countries is the first choice for Taiwan, but it will not happen.Because China, the United States and Taiwan are clear, once Taiwan is independent, China will be martial arts at all costs, so the DPP dare not "independent", the United States is not allowed to "independence", and China does not have to "martial arts", but instead of being peaceful.
The international community hates the United States, also hates China, and hates the two countries.Whether you hate it or like it, the competition between the United States and the United States in the next 20 years, it is difficult for any third country to shake the strength and status of China and the United States.Although there is no war in the Taiwan Strait, the countries around the Taiwan Strait, especially the Taiwan Strait, have to read more scriptures, and we understand the confusion: Don't fight, we care very much, we can't stand it, oppose unilateral changes.One or two countries and one or two chanting are not useful. There are many countries that read the scriptures, and it is definitely useful to form a joint force.On the one hand, the self -esteem and vanity of the boss and the second child, on the other hand, maintain the current situation of division, and also in line with all national interests except China.Before Sino -US relations were not fixed, China's GDP (GDP) did not reach 120%of the US GDP, and the maintenance status of the Taiwan Strait also met China's interests.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
