Source: Bloomberg

Author: Leslie Patton, Laura Bejder Jensen

The wealthy Americans have cut expenditure on the occasion of Black Friday. For the US economy, which has always rely on consumers to resist the decline, this is a worrying sign.

Based on the analysis of Bloomberg Second Measure, in the three months before the end of the important holiday shopping season, the sales of a batch of retailers, including Apple, Coach, and Nordstrom, have reached two years.The maximum decrease.Although the overall retail sales data have risen, the best performance in the richer regions has also been affected.

Kayla Bruun, a senior economist at the investigation and research company Morning Consult, said that although interest rates were recorded and inflation has soared, the upper middle class has made significant contributions to consumer expenditure than expected.But she said that people with household income above $ 100,000 have begun to become more frugal.

On Tuesday, Best Buy and Lawli lowered their performance outlook, and warned that the buyer reduced the purchase of large -scale commodities such as home appliances before the holiday season.Kohl ’s Corp. reports have decreased in the seventh consecutive quarter than sales. The company's cooperation with Sephora has attracted customers, but did not drive them to spend more money on other products.Even the active performance reports of some retailers have not satisfied investors, making Abercrombie Fitch Co. and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. decline.

Rich shoppers usually have a huge impact on changes in consumer expenditure, because when they are in good situation, they can squander, but they will shrink faster than the rich when they feel stressful.Therefore, the brand, retailers and shopping malls that cater to wealthy Americans will be hit by the blow to indicate that the future of the US economy may be weak.

As an alternative indicator of high -income -level expenditures, Bloomberg has created a wealthy index that covers 30 large retailers and brands in 10 categories including clothing, jewelry and electronic products.The average transaction value of these retailers and brands is higher than those of their peers.

Except for cosmetics and skin care sellers Solklan and L'Occitane, the average single transactions of all companies in the index of all companies exceeded $ 100 in October.Some retailers far exceed this level, including Apple ($ 267) and West ELM ($ 292).Most of the index are popular holiday shopping stores, including Best Buy and Williams-Sonoma.

Bloomberg Second Measure traded based on the anonymous US credit card and debit card transaction. The retailers and brands in the index have experienced worsening sales since January, and this situation has recently deepened.70%of companies declined during the three months from August to October.The median value of sales decreased by 14%, the worst in two years.There are not many brands running counter to this trend, including UGG.

The 54-year-old Julie Robinson-Jasper lives in Seattle, with an annual income of more than $ 100,000. She has planned to control holiday expenditures.The upper limit of the gift she gave the two children was $ 600, which was the same as the amount in the past three years, but after the inflation rose rapidly, the purchasing power of this money had greatly reduced.Due to the rise in restaurants' meal, their family eats at home for most of the time and buy clothing in the second -hand market.

Robinson-Jasper, who works in a nursery, said: "We don't want to be caught off guard when we do not want to have layoffs or diseases."

Based on Placer.ai's analysis of the data of the top shopping malls in 25 states, shopping mall traffic in high -income regions has also begun to decline for the first time since the epidemic.

Bre Clinton, an assistant manager of Baybrook Mall, said that everyone is only shopping to some extent, "There are not many shopping bags in their hands."

The average transaction value per transaction amount of online fashion clothing retailers Revolve Group is about 300 US dollars.When he delivered a speech earlier this month, his co -CEO Mike Karanikolas warned the future troubles prospects of the future.

"Luxury consumers who have a generous and aggressive luxury goods at hand 18 months ago now have no same consumption power," he said.