How does Trump get the support of so many voters?The analysis of the new US think tank in 2019 found that voters supported Trump's motivation for not being loved by the Republican Party, but because of hate -to be hostose, Muslims, Spain, and African -American.Trump consolidates supporters through hostility and degradation of the ethnic groups outside the party.
Trump is the first president in the history of the United States to be prosecuted by the federal criminal prosecution. Now he has more than 90 crimes on his body and is mostly felinated.Even so, he is still the leading presidential candidate in the Republican Party, and his leading advantage over the Democratic Party is expanding.How many Americans support Trump?Which Americans are supporting him?
Last year's midterm elections, many candidates endorsed by Trump were lost. At that time, many people looked at the sign of Trump's influence.However, since the election of the mid -last year, Trump has been charged with various crimes, including: March was suspected of paying an adult film aquarius for an adult film, and was prosecuted by New York prosecutors for fraud. In JuneThe government confidential documents became the first president of the United States to be prosecuted by the federal criminal prosecution: By August, the result of overthrowing the 2020 election due to the Moumou Motu was sued by Georgian prosecutors.president.Although the judicial charges were added to him one by one, the Republicans' support for him was getting higher and higher.
After Trump was just sued in June, the polls from the US Public Television (PBS) showed that 78%of Democratic respondents believed that Trump was committed to the law, but only 13%of Republicans thought he had committed the law; 87 87; 87%Of the Democratic respondents believe that he should withdraw from the presidential election, but 83%of the Republican interviewees think he should continue to run.The Republican Party and the Republican independent voters rose from 68%to 76%from 68%at the time of February survey.
By August, when Trump was sued again, the polls cooperated with the Norc Public Affairs Research Center of the Associated Press and the NORC Public Affairs Research Center showed that 63%of Republicans hoped that Trump would run for president again.This is higher than 55%when he began to face criminal charges in April.
In the November CNN (CNN) survey on registered qualified voters showed that if Trump and Biden confrontation, Trump's support is 49%, Biden is 45%; the same at the end of August; the same at the end of August;In the polls, the gap between the two is only 47%to 46%.
The famous election forecast website 538 pointed out that in the Republican Party's nomination competition, Trump has led by 45%in early January this year, and has now risen to 56%.Although voters are still higher than the favor of Trump's bad feelings. At present, the ratio of the two is 54.7%to 40.6%, and this trend has remained stable.However, the bad sense of Biden is similar to the ratio of favors, and currently 54.8%is 39.5%.
More importantly, the polls announced on November 5th of the New York Times show that in the six key swing states that can be elected, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and WisconsonLeading, the other five states were defeated to Trump.Swing State refers to its voter votes to the Republican candidates and sometimes voted to the Democratic Party. Unlike California and New York State, the Democratic Party is a Democratic iron ticket area.EssenceDuring the 2020 election, Biden won in these six swing states. At that time, Biden grabbed Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the original "rust zone" of Trump.Blocking the "red tide" has become the key to victory.Now the blue wall is in danger. Once it collapses, it will be reunited.
Affects the key points of the election next year
The above polls can summarize several key points that affect the election.
First of all, voters are worried about Biden's age.Biden is 81 years old next year, and will be the first president over 80 years old in the history of the United States -the oldest is Reagan, who was 77 years old.The people are generally worried about his reactiveness and energy recession -although Trump is also 78 years old next year, voters trust his head and physical fitness.In the CNN's polls in November, only 25%of the respondents were confident in endurance and acuity of Biden, and 53%of the respondents must be Trump in this regard.
Secondly, it is worth noting the turning of young voters.In recent times, the voting rate of young voters has continued to rise; young voters from 18 to 29 years in 2020 are as high as 50 %, an increase of 11 percentage points from four years ago.In 2020, 60%of young voters voted to Biden, only 36%supported Trump.However, the latest survey shows that young voters' support for Biden and Trump is comparable.CNN's polls in November showed that 48%of voters under 35 supported Trump and 47%supported Biden.The New York Times showed that the award of Bayon was only single -digit in the age of 30, but in terms of economic policy, young voters' trust in Trump was 28%higher than Bayeon.Inflation has continued to rise in interest rates, and it has also stressed that young people who need to buy cars and houses on loans have risen.
The third is to be more vigilant: African -American voters are declining.According to the New York Times, 22%of African voters in six swing states support Trump.This is an unprecedented high rate for the Republican presidential election.
How did Trump get the support of so many voters?
New American (New America) think tank analysis Trump's supporters found that the motivation for voters to support Trump is not out of love for Republican Party, but hate -to Tongan, Muslims, Spain,Relief with African -American.The above -mentioned ethnic groups are closely related to the Democratic Party, because the Democratic Party has always been more diverse than the Republican Party in ethnic and cultural.The new US think tank pointed out that Trump uses hostile and degradation of the social ethnic groups to consolidate supporters. This approach causes a political "new normal": candidate's election strategy is not to find people with the same concepts and goals on the frontInstead, they want to combine those who actively hate other groups and want to hurt these group members.Political mobilization condensed by hatred also means that the cross -party political alliance is becoming more and more difficult.
The New York Times pointed out that Swing State moved closer to Trump, and Clehiri International Peace Foundation researcher Clafeld had a profound analysis of the swing voters.First of all, she pointed out a myth about the middle voters: It is generally believed that people who can accept the views of the two parties are a group of voters who are economically conservative and social.The image of political elite.However, according to the research of Dimon and others in 2016, only 3.8%of voters hold this mild ideology; people who have no scheduled positions for the two -party policy and may be accepted are often supporting the economy of economy.American citizens should be white, Christians, and born in the United States.This kind of people -the so -called middle voters or swing voters -account for 28.9%of the overall voters.
Trump won the support of most Republicans and independent voters
But Clefield also pointed out that since 2016, more and more of these people have joined the Republican Party.There are many groups of people who support dictatorship, and if necessary, they will also defend the racial hierarchical system dominated by traditional gender characters and white people, and even think that the use of violence is legitimate.They voted in 2020 to support Trump and believe that the Democratic Party "stolen" the 2020 presidential election.Many of them are considered a firm republican party, but some people are anti -building. In the future, if there is a strong person like Trump, they will support them.
Relative, excitement in the Democratic PartyEntering the left, although some people also advocate the use of violence to overthrow the system and realize the "real" democratic system. Most of these extremely leftists are only oral initiatives. They have the right to speak in some cultural and ideological battlefields.Real power.In contrast, the far -right is not the edge of the Republican Party, but gradually grasped real power and became the mainstream of the Republican Party. They are now Trump's supporters.According to the inside statistics of the online media business, as of October 19, a total of four governors, 11 senators and 77 members expressed their support to support Trump's election in 2024, and the number of people continued to increase.
In January 2021, the hill riots of the parliament caused an error impression that Trump's supporters were only a small rightist who advocated violence, but it was discovered from various polls, analysis, and the actual evolution of political conditions. Trump's facts were found.In the top is the support of most Republicans and independent voters of the Republican Party.In other words, the Republican mainstream is those who hate the Democratic Party and the social ethnic groups associated with the Democratic Party. They are supporting the Trump to move towards the White House.
The author is a columnist in Taiwan
