Shi Xinyue: Taiwans ＂Blue and White＂ negotiation card is still possible

Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

Author: Shi Xinyue

The "Blue and Baihe" Taiwanese party will decide the 2024 Taiwan election election group with polls. The results were originally announced on the morning of the 18th.However, the Taiwanese people's party claims that there are problems with three polls. The two parties have not reached a consensus on the scope of the error scope of polls. In the end, they failed to reach a resolution.

The Chinese Kuomintang and the Taiwan Citizen Party, representing the "White Power", held a party consultation meeting on the 15th to reach a six -point cooperation consensus.From former President Ma Ying -jeou, the Kuomintang, and the People's Party, the three parties each recommended a poll statistics expert to review the polls from November 7 to 17, as well as the Kuomintang and the people's party provided an internal poll.The two sides agreed that if the statistical error exceeds the statistical error, the winner will have one point; if the statistical error scope, the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi will be the "Hou Ke" who is elected and Ke Wenzhe is the deputy.On the morning of the 18th, the result of the results of the election was announced by the Ma Ying -jeou Foundation.

However, the three poll experts met on the evening of the 17th to review polls. After a long discussion, there was no results until the early morning of the 18th.

The Ma Ying -jeou Foundation held a press conference on the 18th that in the nine polls reviewed by the three poll statistics experts, the representatives of the people's party believed that there should be no problem with problems.calculate.Whether the two sides have not reached consensus in these three polls.

In addition, the three experts reviewed the results of the other six polls, and the perception of the scope of polls into the scope of polls became the key to the difference.The Kuomintang claims that the scope of errors is 3 percentage points. Based on this, the score of "Hou Ke" to "Ke Hou" is 5 to 1, and "Hou Ke Pai" wins.

The People's Party believes that if a positive and negative 3 percentage point is adopted, the total error range will reach 6 percentage points, and there may be major controversy in statistics.It should be calculated at 1.5 percentage points (1068 samples and 95%of confidence, and the sampling error is 3 percentage points). In this way, the score of "Hou Ke" will become 3 to 3.

5 to 1 to 3-3, there is a large gap between one time, and the two parties fail to reach a consensus."Blue and Baihe" had to give up for the time being.

Niu Zexun, a professor at Taiwan China Culture University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Hong Kong News Agency on the 18th that if strict statistics are strictly based, at the level of 1068 successful samples and 95%of confidence, the error range is positive and negative 3 to 3 to3.5 percentage points, so the Kuomintang's claim is reasonable.

However, Niu Zexun added the explanation that looking back at the content of the six -point consensus statement of the Blue and White Party, it did not make a clear clarification of the scope of the scope of the polls of the critical point of victory, which was buried for the words of the two parties today.Failure.As a result of the card, the two sides naturally summarize.

After the negotiation card is closed, the two sides kept a new round of "offensive and defensive".Ke Wenzhe said that he hoped to continue to negotiate with the Kuomintang, but he could not ask for the polls to give 6 percentage points. This is equivalent to "abandoning the weapon surrender", which is difficult to be too strong.

The Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun said that there is no so -called Kuomintang requesting the people to give 6 percentage points. On the 15th, he emphasized to Ke Wenzhe not to discuss how much percentage points were made, but to respect the statistical errors of each poll.As long as the statistical error scope is won by "Hou Ke".

However, although the two sides hold their own words, they did not say anything.The Kuomintang said that the "blue and white" negotiations are still ongoing, hoping to have the best results after 24 hours.Ke Wenzhe also said that in order to echo the expectations of the people, he still hopes to continue the party negotiation and find out the strongest combination to win the election.

Is it good to grind more or part ways?Niu Zexun said that although the time left is not much, the "blue and white" is still possible.First of all, the mainstream public opinion of Taiwanese society has always expected political parties to rotate.In addition, the two parties of the blue and white parties also know the interests of cooperation or not.If the cognition of the scope of polls is not recognized, the two sides have not been able to accumulate mutual trust, consensus, and tacit understanding that the two parties have not been able to accumulate before, which will not only turn into a bubble, but also meet each other after the two parties.This situation not only allows Lai Qingde to regain its advantages immediately, but also may make the DPP's original unfavorable legislative election resurrection, which leads to the double losses of the blue and white party elections and legislators elections.More enough, it will be more difficult to resolve the Blue and White Party.The impact brought by the cooperation break is probably not Hou Ke, or even the blue and white parties.