Behind ＂Third Uprising＂: The two countries have died and one country has become a r

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Liu Yanting

On October 7, Hamas launched the "Operation Al-AQSA Flood" to occupy many Jewish settlements and take away civilians.) It was then announced that the war with Hamas was the first time after the war of atonement in 1973, and Isaa entered a state of war.

From the perspective of Israel, Hamas's flash is unexpected, and public opinion has questioned the failure of Israel's intelligence system, such as the discussion of "Israel 911" and "Israel Pearl Harbor".This attack is "a counterattack against Israel's oppression". Although Hamas is only a supporting force, it cannot represent all Palestinians, but it is undoubtedly an important actor who conflicts with Pakistan.Therefore, in addition to the code of "Aksa Flood Action", this incident is also known as the "Third IntiFada". It is the first uprising in 1987 and the second uprising in 2000 in 1987.New struggle.

But although the incident itself was unexpected, the international response was not surprising: the United States and Iran each expressed support for Israel and Hamas, including the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, verbally "supported" Palestine, and at the same time, they came out at the same time.Yu Hamas's long -time disgust condemned "the behavior of harming civilians."Looking at most countries in the Middle East, the position is biased towards the United States that "Israel has the right to self-defense" and "standing with Israel"; compared to sympathizing with Palestine, they have called on the "Two-State Solution" with the United Nations.

It is just ironic that Hamas itself was a strong opponent of the "two countries".The rule of one country is undeniable.

Why may it be possible

Looking back at the prototype of the "two countries", the earliest UN division of governance plans can be traced back to 1947: one -third of the Jews obtained 55%of the Palestinian territory to accommodate future immigrants, accounting for two -thirds of the population.The Palestinian Arabs received 45%of the territory.It is conceivable that this distribution was accepted by the leaders of the Jewish recurred, but was rejected by Arab leaders, and the war broke out.

This conflict caused 700,000 Arabic residents to escape from Palestine, and Israel further embezzled land. When Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria signed a suspension agreement in 1949, Israel has controlled 78%of the territory of Palestine.Since then, the Arab world has continued to call for "liberating Palestine" to deny the legitimacy of Israel's founding of the country.Not only did the support of Arab countries declined, but global attention continued to decline.

Therefore, it can be observed that since the 1970s, the diplomatic processes and international efforts around the "two countries" have become clearer. The plan is mainly based on the two sides' border between the two sides and the UN Security Council No. 242 resolution, so that Israel and and Israel and andPalestinian is neighbor.Since the mid -1970s, this plan has received overwhelming support at the UN General Assembly.Essence

But Israel's position is not different from all parties.After the 6th war of 1967, Israel faced the choice: abandoning the dream of Eretz Yisrael, withdrawing troops from the west bank of the Jordan River, or in fact, in fact, it was an endless occupation and annex.From the perspective of subsequent development, Israel has obviously selected the latter, and then annexed the East Jerusalem, the Gelan Highlands in Syria, and other Palestinian territories, and were indifferent to related negotiations between the two countries.

In 1987, Palestine launched the first uprising. Israel seems to be stimulated and is finally willing to sit on the negotiating table.At the same time, Yasser Arafat, the leader of Pakistani, faces political internal and external challenges: yes, the new forces such as Hamas and Palestine Islamic Territories (PIJ) have risen, which are strongly religious. TheseThe forces opposed the "two countries' plans". The only support to overthrow Israel and began to be dissatisfied with the secular "mild" forces headed by Arafat; to the outside world, Alafat rarely supported Iraq's Saddam Hussein in the Gulf War in 1990 in the 1990 Gulf War.As a result, the Arab countries of the United States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other bays, the gold aids were significantly reduced.Therefore, regardless of internal and external, Arafat needs a performance opportunity to consolidate his leadership prestige in Palestine, but also ease the tension with the West. This is the background of the OSLO Accords in 1993.

From the perspective of peace process, this agreement is based on Baza's attempts on the "two countries"; from the standpoint of Arafatt, this agreement establishes the "representative of Palestine's representatives of Palestine internally and outside the outside world."Status; Judging from the perspective of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, this is an opportunity for the implementation of the left -wing security view of the Israeli such as the Labor Party, that is," the land for peace ".In general, the Oslo Agreement has the following achievements: the Palestinian national power agency is established, and limited autonomy of the West Coast and the Gaza Strip is in part.Acknowledged; Bataba began to negotiate the border of Pakistan, Israel, Jerusalem, Israeli Palestine's autonomy, and Palestinian refugee return rights under the "two countries' solutions".

However, the Oslo Agreement failed to obtain an overwhelming support from Pakistan people's opinion. Organizations such as Hamas criticized Arafat to sell their national dignity.Israel extremely right assassination.As a result, Israel failed to complete the withdrawal in accordance with the agreement, and radical organizations such as Hamas did not stop on a terrorist attack on Israel. In the end, Arafat was condoned in the influence with Hamas.The armed group AL-AQSA MARTYRS 'Brigades attacked civilians.As a result, seven years after the Oslo Agreement signed, the second uprising broke out, and the "two countries' plans" attempts to declare failed.

Why died in the "two countries"

After that, the prospects of the "two countries" became more and more dim.

First of all, after Israel's political left -wing decline, the right wing returned to governance. Its conflict with Hamas has become stronger since 2000. The strategy of the square can basically be summarized as the "Iron Wall" policyThat is to show that Israel has the ability to suppress any attack, and at the same time actively interacts with the Arab countries, so that all parties are used to the existence of the "iron wall".The attacks of radical organizations such as Hamas just given Israel's opportunity to shape the narrative of the "New Massacre".The success of the military strike, Israel has continuously raised the requirements for territory, security and recognition of the legitimacy of Jewish recurrence.The final result is to let "negotiate"Become a negative vocabulary in Israel's public opinion, so that the public opinion market of the" two countries "is seriously lost.

Then the United States' unconditional support for Israel accelerated the collapse of the "two countries".Due to the strategic needs of cultivating agents in the Middle East and strong domestic lobbying groups, even if Israel has continued to eat Palestinian territory with a settlement since 1967, the United States has not stopped Israel and swallowed.Make necessary sacrifice for peace.Over time, Israel has also begun to believe that it can adopt any policies without affecting the support of the United States. The position of the right -wing settlement is becoming tougher and the support group is expanding. Although the gentle school continues to warnHowever, because the reality is not so developed, it has gradually lost its influence.

If the second uprising is only a symbol of the frustration of the "two countries", then the current reality of the two strokes of the two strokes is the substantial death of the "two countries".

Today, the "settlers movement" has a considerable influence in Israeli politics. Any government must allow nearly 700,000 setrs to evacuate from the west bank of the Jordan River and East Jerusalem.The difficulty of returning to the border in 1967 is extremely high. The national national law passed in 2018 has taken the pace of legal annexation of the West Coast, intending to pursue the legitimacy of illegal settlements.Simply put, the expansion of the settlement has accumulated a heavy accumulation, and the evacuation of the west bank of the Jordan River has become an impossible task.Then, the blood revenge between Israel and Hamas led to the collapse of the peace camp of both Pakistan, and Israel's right wing became the mainstream. In Natanahu, even if the corruption scandal, they could return to politics;The internationally recognized Palestinian national power agency is "Israeli stabilization machine", and the radical route of Hamas has gained a lot of support, which has caused the negotiation process to lose its influence.

In this process, the reality of Israel's "one country rule" has gradually consolidated.As of 2023, 9.3%of the land area on the west bank of the Jordan River was a settlement point, 20%was a military restricted area, and 20%was announced by Israel as "national land".%Of the region is under Israeli control, resulting in nearly 3 million Palestinian people living on the "islands" with fragmented "islands" in Area A and B (40%of the area on the west bank of the Jordan River).Srioli occupied it, but was also strictly blocked by Israel, and Hamas could not control the coastline, leading and boundary of the Gaza Strip, so that 2.3 million Barstinians lived in a crowded environment in lack of water, electricity, and drugs.

Therefore, from the perspective of political reality, in the Palestine region between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, in fact, there is only one country, named Israel, but this country implements racial isolation. Some people have citizenship with similar privileges, part of the part, part ofPeople are deprived of basic human rights, but among the groups behind, there are unprecedented armed "quasi -countries" entities, and they are supported by Iranian military support.

The "Third Uprising" launched by Hamas can not solve the reality of the "two countries' solutions", and may even make the situation worse, but in the past yearsEven if the facts of the "two countries' plans" are so obvious, all parties are still unwilling to change the slogan of the aged, and the situation has reached today.The country that really has influence on both parties in the conflict has no sincerity of the resolution of the dilemma: the United States is extremely hypocritical, while condoning Israel to expand the settlement and indicate that they support the "two countries' plans".Interests; Iran does not hesitate to give up, on the surface, holding high the banner of "supporting Palestine" and constantly assisting Hamas forces. The practical intention is almost the same as that of the Lebanese Master Party.The influence of expanding the hot spots of conflicts and forming the fabricated facts of Iran's penetration, rather than resolving conflicts.

In the end, on the politics of great powers, the issues of Palestintan only see political, geographical, and military interests in all aspects, and the sincerity of solution without pragmatic resolution has also made the conflict that continues to be difficult.From the "two countries' plans" to the reality of one country, the two parties have gone for half a century, and in the next 50 years, if the international situation is still the same, what the Palestinian people want to fight may not be such a distant fantasy dream of the founding of the country, and butIt is the most basic right to survive and personal dignity.