Israel will definitely launch large -scale ground invasion, and it is likely to be long -term occupation.Although Hamas leaders will be transferred to underground bunkers, whether it can obtain a safe asylum is still very doubtful.The international community will give Israel's broad space for Hamas.
One day after Hamas on the anniversary of the war of atonement in 1973, it was similar to the conflict of the conflict of the conflict that year launched by Israel.These two attacks were both bold and unexpected, which caused Israel to be caught off guard and caused a fatal blow to the country's unprofitable beliefs.Whether Hamas's attack will lead to a structural change in the relationship between Israeli politics and Palestinians, as in 1973, it remains to be observed.
In 1973, Egypt and Syria penetrated the Israeli territory, which surprised the latter.In the early days of the conflict, the situation was severe to the Minister of Defense Moshe Dayan.Later, the Agranat Commission, which was responsible for investigating the war, created the term "Conceptziyya" used to describe the arrogance of the intelligence department.The Israeli military intelligence department determines that its overwhelming firepower advantages will prevent Arabs from attacking.Specifically, it is believed that Egypt will not launch an attack before Egypt has sufficient air firepower to crack down on Israeli targets and suppress its Air Force.
Today, the above -mentioned agencies still adhere to this view, that is, the overwhelming power of Israel, which will prevent Hamas from launching a new war.The Israeli political leader headed by Prime Minister Neyho concluded that Palestine's violence in violence broke out on a regular basis, and believed that the occupied ones would accept endless occupation.
Hamas' actions exposed the mistakes of this countermeasure.Now there is no doubt that a entity that continues to urge to destroy Israel and abducts Israeli civilians cannot continue to exist on the Israeli border.
In 1974, after the results of the Angraner Commission announced the results of the preliminary investigation, the Prime Minister Golda Meir and Da Yang both submitted resignation.Mrs. Mayer bowed elegantly; Da Yang rejected the call from the outside world because the committee did not recommend this.
Nei Tanahu will undoubtedly imitate Dayang's attitude, but now he is undoubtedly facing a 40 -year political career.Although Neutanahu's severe and firm words won supporters at home and abroad, his talks have always been out of reality; Hamas's actions taken during his tenure immediately made his paper tiger's true colors.He promised his policy to conquer the Palestinians, but as a result, Israel had the worst attack in history.He vowed to appease the Palestinian economic plans, but found that their attachment to the land was by no means comparable to any money temptation.His strategy is limited to the indulgence of the army in Palestinian territory.
Neitanahu has long proved this fact.In the first 11 years of ruling, the pressure applied by the US Democratic government made him irritated, claiming that the conflict could be resolved under the leadership of the Republican President.However, during Trump's administration, Negatohu, while laughing, relocated the embassy to Jerusalem and waited for concessions, but refused to provide any actual benefits for the Palestinians.
Although abandonment of Neitanhu is a long -term battle, within a few weeks after the violence, the liquidation of its subordinates will follow.The Agranat Commission suggested that only a few officials were dismissed, most of which came from the intelligence department.However, the reflection caused by this war will go deep into the troops and spread to the senior management of the domestic security department.
Hamas may also face similar liquidation.Israeli security agencies often mention the destruction of "infrastructure of terrorists".The attack will provide them with such opportunities.
Israel will definitely launch large -scale ground invasion, and it is likely to be occupied for a long time.Although Hamas leaders will be transferred to underground bunkers, whether it can obtain a safe asylum is still very doubtful.
Hamas and other Islamic organizations put themselves in the framework of Muslim history, but it is even more wise to see its sights into the new world.In 1996, the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement of Peru's Japanese ambassador's residence in the capital of Lima, the capital of Lima, hijacked hundreds of hostages.This appalling attack attracted the attention of countries around the world.A military attack rescued all hostages, and at the same time gave the organization a fatal blow from then.
The international community will give Israel a broad space for Hamas.Just like the war between Israel and the Lord in 2006, as usual concerns about civilian casualties, it will not cause much response.However, the most effective approach of the Western government is to use its influence to pressure Qatar and Turkey to expel Hamas officials, close their offices, and prohibit their fundraising activities.
Whether this attack will end the chapter of Israeli history is the most important issue.In the end, the war in 1973, coupled with the 1977 Mato's wife's wife held an illegal foreign bank account, broke the 29 -year power control of the Labor Party.
Today, Israel blew the angle of revenge.When the horn sound gradually subsides, it will follow.The Israelis will question the concept (Conceptziyya) that they can gradually adapt to the sufferings that neighbors try to impose to them while harvesting the interests of the western nation.
But Israeli left and peace processes cannot be revived.Since the Palestinians refused to accept the Israeli Peace Plan in 2000, the left has been sluggish.Today, the Labor Party has plummeted from the peak of power and has become one of the smallest factions in the Israeli parliament.
In 1973, after realizing that he was not indestructible, Israel embarked on a path to peace in peace with Egypt.Unable to reach the same consensus with the Palestinians is the biggest tragedy of this war.
Author Barak Barfi is a former US researcher
Former visiting researcher at the Brucks Society
English Original Title: What Will Follow Hamas ’s War?
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
