Recently, a signature of Zhang Weiying, a signature of China ’s social media, is an analysis of the reasons for the current unfriendly international environment in China. It is believed that an important factor in the international environment that causes the current unfriendly China is the" Chinese model "theory.The "China Model" explains the achievements of the past 40 years, which is not good for China's future development.First, mislead yourself in the inside, self -destruction future; second, mislead the world, leading to confrontation.The article believes that the Chinese model theory is seriously inconsistent with the facts.
For this article, individuals cannot agree, such as triggering confrontation theory; there are also deep recognition, such as the Chinese model theory seriously does not meet the facts and misleads itself.
In China, some people often think that the Chinese economy is a mystery, and the existing economic theory cannot explain its performance.From the perspective of these people, China is an unclear country and a paradox in economic propositions.Economists do not understand anyway, why under an institutional conditions of a per capita poverty -stricken resources, almost blank technological innovation, as well as incomplete property rights, incomplete market openness, incomplete society, and incomplete opening to the outside world, China is unexpectedly unexpectedly open.Created an economic miracle.They then believe that in the western vast economics theory, the theory that is suitable for the Chinese economy cannot be found.They then concluded the mystery of China's economic miracle, which was created by the "Chinese model".
To be honest, in terms of economic growth alone, China's economy has indeed been miracles.But it must be explained that the Chinese economic miracle is not as explained as they think.In fact, as long as people who know the economic development of Japan and East Asia, they will not dare to draw the above conclusions.
It has increased at high speed for decades, not only China
Hai Wen, the former vice president of Peking University, pointed out: In fact, the example of high -speed growth for 30 or 40 years is not only this time in China.The cherry blossom island country that looks at the west coast of the Pacific Ocean also has a miracle.For the causes and development trends of the Japanese economic miracle, well -known Japanese economists have left Professor Professor of Head of the Atlantic International Society of the Atlantic International Society, a special paper entitled Japanese miracles. In February 1977, he was published in Paris in English.In this paper, the heavy people are mainly attributed to several factors.
1. The huge labor force is reserved.In the early days of Japan, the labor supply suddenly increased by more than 10 million people. Specifically: 7.1 million people who retired from retired due to the dismissal of the war; 2.6 million colonists who returned from all over Asia; workers fired from the former military department department;1.6 million people.And due to the over -demand of labor, weakening the bargaining power of the workers, thus a low wage rate in the after -war years.This low wage rate has changed abnormal changes in the supply of labor -the wages are too low to support the family and promote women and the elderly to invest in the labor market.
2. The introduction of science and technology has improved the labor productivity of the people.After the war, Japan applied the latest science and technology to industry, but was still left behind by European and American countries.However, Japan quickly caught up with other developed countries by introducing technological inventions and scientific and technological information that has been developed.
Three, high savings rate.With the development of the economy, a typical structural change in Japan's industries requires more capital equipment for each labor force.Therefore, it is clear that if there is no investment that is sufficient to promote this structure, this change is impossible.It means that there is no high investment rate without a high savings rate, and it is impossible to have a high growth rate.At that time, Japan, the ratio of savings accounted for more than 36%of the total national product value, and nearly 40%by 1970.
Japan has such a high savings rate, the main positive factors are: June and December each year, Japan will issue bonuses equivalent to three months or more wages.This traditional habit will inevitably lag behind income, and then increase the tendency of savings.The negative factors are: at the time in Japan, the social insurance system, especially the living security of the elderly, was incomplete. Out of concern for the future, Japan's personal savings rate was higher than most other developed countries.
In addition to the two major production factors of labor and savings, they also think that a series of policies of the government also have a lot of contributions.Dual price mechanisms, rewarding subsidies for exports, and policies such as administrative guidance are given a lot of support.In addition, Japan also invests strongly in infrastructure to build roads and water for enterprises.The government also gives enterprise hydropower subsidies, special tax exemptions, etc.At the same time, it is also supplemented by low interest rates to reduce the cost of corporate capital.In short, the purpose is to reduce the burden of corporate.
China's economic factors are consistent with Japan
In fact, the Japanese in Japan in the book are replaced by China. The miracles and miracles after decades can basically explain clearly.It can be seen that the factors and even specific policies that promote the miracle of China's economic miracle are similar to Japan, and they are highly consistent.
First of all, elements such as reform and opening up and establishing a socialist market economy system, and have a rich laborer with low -cost structure and low cost structures in time and space.China seized this opportunity window to achieve economic growth.Some scholars have calculated that from 1978 to 2010, in the high -speed growth of China's economy, the contribution of demographic dividends to actual economic growth reached 25%.
Followed by technology introduction.In the 70 years since the establishment of the mainland government, especially since the reform and opening up, the upgrade and transformation of industrial technology has been adhered to the independent and self -reliant technological progress route under the condition of Western technology blockade, but also actively launched technology introduction in extremely difficult external environments.From rooting from independence to "changing technology with the market", to strengthening the attention of independent innovation and core technology development while technology introduction, technical introduction concepts, technical introduction, and technical introduction methods in different historical periods have gone through a long experience.The self -adjustment process of "camera choice" according to the internal and external conditions.
According to statistics, from 1978 to the beginning of the 21st century, more than 3,000 advanced technologies in China's machinery industry have introduced more than 1,000 vehicles, component processes and development technologies in the automotive industry.The industry introduces more than 1,000 equipment and technology.These introductions have significantly improved a considerable number of Chinese enterprises' technical equipment and manufacturing processes, while improving the output and performance of industrial products. Some fine products have gradually developed, and there are many powerful examples in many fields.In this process, China has grown increasingly becoming a big manufacturing country.
Once again, it is a high savings rate.In December 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a high savings entitled by China: the reason for the reasons, future direction and policy recommendations. Among them, the data provided by China shows that the savings rate is ranked first in the world: from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from a historical point of view, from historical,Since the 1980s, national savings have been high, accounting for about 35%to 40%of GDP.After China joined the World Trade Organization, the ratio of Savings accounted for continuously, and the savings in 2008 soared to 52%of GDP.After the global financial crisis, savings gradually decreased, and in 2017 to 46%, but it was still much higher than the global average of 20%and 15%of emerging economies.An important reason for the high savings rate is the same as that of Japan that year -the social security system has not been established.
In addition, the exchange rate system and export tax refund system that helps exports is also impressive.What is even more impressive is that China's investment in infrastructure is in the training of industrial technical workers.How is this similar to Japan that year, so that my Chinese economy will repeat Japan?After the first book was published in 2010, some readers commented that I liked a large -scale copy.
In summary, the Chinese economic miracle (more rigorously should be the high -speed growth of the Chinese economy), not as some scholars think, it is so unpredictable and not what they described.Law of economics.
factsAs mentioned above, China's economy is still based on the traditional factors of labor and savings.Regarding this, please refer to the Solo economic growth model in economic growth and Harold -Dama model.In short, in the category of economic growth, there has never been a so -called Chinese model.
The author is a Chinese economist, a financial columnist
