Under the risk of risky northern countries, the global southern south is facing rare development opportunities, and the global industrial chain and supply chain will be re -deployed in many southern countries.From the perspective of the southern world, although facing a good situation of time and local interests, the key is "people" to seize the opportunity.The risky policy between the great powers and their southern development plans are the two major strategies promoted at the same time, and they are two sides of a coin.
Since the beginning of this year, European and American leaders have replaced the word "De-Risking" to replace the past "decoupling".The broken chain ", so it can only be relocated to some industrial chains and realize the diversification of trade investment.
Although Chinese officials clearly oppose the concept of "de -risk" in the West, in fact, due to national security and geographical strategy, risks will also be put into action to gradually reduce their dependence on investment, technology and market demand from the West,EssenceIn the situation of mutual risks between large powers, a large number of capital, manpower and technical support from these large powers will flow to Global South to benefit the majority of developing countries.
Diversification is the future trend
In the past 20 years, in the context of joining the World Trade Organization in China, the global industrial chain and supply chain focus has accelerated eastward. China has become a world factory.It is the biggest demand for digestion. The dollar and euro are the most important currency medium to promote these transactions.
The continuous tension of crown disease and geopolitics has made more and more people realize that such a global economic layout is unsustainable.On the one hand, China's production costs are continuously rising, and the government's control and requirements for environmental protection, security and corporate social responsibilities are also increasing; on the other hand, the Russian and Ukraine War and geopolitics are tension, which allows people to see that excessive dependence on a country in the industrial field depends on a country.risks of.The sudden outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War caused huge losses to Western companies that have huge investments in Russia in the short term.
From China, the situation that depends on Western needs is also changing.After proposing the Belt and Road Plan in 2013, the trade volume of China and the countries along the Belt and Road rose, and most countries along the route belonged to developing countries.Asians have now replaced Europe and the United States, becoming China's largest trading partner; trade and investment in members of China and other BRICS organizations have also grown rapidly.The Russian and Ukraine War led to China's surge in exports to Russia. In the first seven months of this year, China ’s exports to Russia soared 70%, but China's overall exports fell by 5%.When China proposed the concept of "decoupling" in the West, it has been actively de -risk, trying to reduce its dependence on the Western market by boosting domestic demand and expanding export share of emerging markets.
Compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, the shortcomings are that the lack of hard currency such as US dollars and euros, and limited payment capabilities.For this reason, China has reached a currency swap agreement with more and more countries to allow the use of local currency transactions.However, the increase in such transactions may weaken China's US dollar revenue and reserves.If the US dollar hegemony has not changed for a long time, it will affect China's financial strength on the international stage.Therefore, China's expansion in the southern market must cooperate with the reform plan of the international financial system. The game between China and the United States around the United States and the United States will continue.
From the perspective of the West and other countries, I also hope to strengthen the economic and trade connection with the Southern World.The slowdown of China's economic and population growth has made the outside world see that the demand for the Chinese market is limited; in comparison, the market capacity of the global south is much greater.India's population scale has surpassed China, and the population of Nigeria, Africa, is speculated that it will also surpass China at the end of this century and become the second in the world.Compared with the northern countries, the population structure is young and the aging is not serious. With sufficient sunshine and rich natural resources, it is easy to gain the favor of developed countries.
Is the Southern World ready
This shows that under the situation of risky northern countries, the global south is facing rare development opportunities, and the global industrial chain and supply chain will be re -deployed in many southern countries.The Russian and Ukraine War and climate change have also made natural resources and agricultural products high, which is more beneficial to developing countries with resource output.
The great powers have proposed to face the strategy of facing the southern world: China continues to promote the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States and Japan are implementing the Indo -Pacific Strategy.The huge plan of India -the Middle East -European Economic Corridor has strong support from the United States.Although the competition between the great powers is inevitable, all these plans and projects will objectively bring a lot of investment and work opportunities to developing countries, improve local infrastructure, and promote economic development.
From the perspective of the southern world, although facing a good situation of time and local interests, the key is that "people" can seize the opportunity.
There are many countries in the world in the world. Most of the economic development levels are not high, and their national strength is weak. In the process of communication with the great powers, sometimes the bargaining ability is insufficient.Holding group heating and enhancing its own governance capacity building is a compulsory course for foreign exchanges in these countries; using the platforms of regional state organizations to participate in the large country plan, it will help developing countries to obtain a more favorable international status.In this regard, the Asia Jia'an, the African Union, the Gulf Arab National Cooperation Commission and other regional organizations are a model of success and will continue to play the role of unity and coordination in the future.The African Union has recently become a formal member of the 20th National Guard, which highlights the importance of the African continent in the global economic territory.In the future, Asian'an is also expected to imitate the African Union to join the Goutling Group to enhance the right to speak in global governance in Southeast Asian countries.
The risky policy between the great powers and their southern development plans are the two major strategies promoted at the same time, and they are two sides of a coin.In other words, economic globalization has not ended, but will benefit wider regions and more populations around the world.
The author is the deputy director and senior researcher of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore
