Liu Birong: Irans smile in the Middle East changes

Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Liu Birong

The tension between the United States and Iran has a signs of relaxation recently.After several rounds of negotiations, Iran agreed to transfer four Iranian American spies from prisons to house arrest, and finally released the United States with another spy who was under house arrest.The United States has released five Iranian prisoners and thawed at US $ 6 billion in Iranian oil models currently deducted from South Korea.After the Bayeng government came to power, the US -Iraq relationship has always been hoped to improve, and now there are finally some results.

The United States and Iran are negotiating "reducing intensive measures."These measures include Iran's promise to limit the concentration of concentrated uranium to less than 60%, strengthen cooperation with the International Atom Energy, no longer attack Americans, and do not sell armed drones to Russia.If it can be done, the United States promises to impose new sanctions on Iran except for human rights issues, and at the same time, it is no longer strictly monitoring that Iran is not allowed to sell oil internationally internationally.

This negotiation is very knowledgeable.First of all, the negotiations between the United States and Iraq in the Cada and Amman are through the indirect negotiations between the middlemen, so the theoretically the two parties have not officially negotiated.Secondly, the United States said that exchanging prisoners is only a prerequisite for negotiations to reduce intensive measures. It is not an issue exchange, so the United States can claim that there is no concession.Third, Iran does not promise not to sell drones to Russia, but requires Russia not to deploy drones in Ukraine.This is a change of response tactics.Fourth, the United States agrees to sell oil to Iran to open one eye and close one eye.This promise cannot be written into the agreement. If you do n’t believe it, it depends on Iran himself.

Why did Iran agree to exchange prisoners?One statement is that Iran wants to show good to the United States and allow the United States to persuade the British France and Germany to party. Do not impose new sanctions on Iran after the Yue Nuclear Agreement expires in October.Because of Western sanctions on Iran in the past, Iran did feel economic pressure.

Another statement is more strategic.Some observers pointed out that Iran's discovery of the strategy of waving a stick will only make Iranian enemies Arab and Jews get closer.So now we need to use a carrot's smiley offensive to differentiate the enemy.Moreover, the United States is now preparing to draw from the Middle East and the Joint Government of Israel, and deprive the Palestinians' many rights, so that the Arab countries are inconvenient to go too close to Israel, just to provide Iran with the opportunity to adjust the Middle East policy.Therefore, we see that Iran and Saudi Re -Friends, re -friendship with the UAE and discuss the cooperation between air transportation and infrastructure, and have begun contact with Barin (in the past Iran's incitement of Shiites inside the Barin to launch a revolution), normalization of relations with Egypt, and proposedEstablished a regional forum without the United States and Israel.

Whether it is strategic purpose or tactical rights, Iran has a smile on the former countries.What is the US tension measures?U.S. officials said that this was not for another Iraqi Agreement, but Iran's nuclear ability can be frozen at the current level.

An intriguing is that Iran cares whether Saudi and Israel will eventually build diplomatic relations.But recently, Saudi has appointed Ambassador to Palestine, which has made Sand's relationship complicated.Israel has threatened not to let any country set up the Embassy in Palestine in Jerusalem, but the Saudi Land School has no ambassador. Is this not prohibited?Is the Saudi country appointed the Palestinian Ambassador to express Palestine's attention, or to appease Palestine before building diplomatic relations with Israel?How will Iran interpret this?How deep will the United States get involved in the development of Sand's relationship?Provide information to avoid misjudgment by any party?Or provide military guarantees to avoid any party?These can continue to observe.