Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

Although countries around the world have prepared for Russia to promote Russia and Ukraine at the end of this year, the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War is still in the direction of continuous upgrading.

Just in the past weekend, Ukraine tried to attack the Crimea Bridge and Crimea with the S-200 missiles and drones, and continued to cut forward its strategy of crossing Crimea and Russia's local land traffic.; The Russian Navy fired a warning alert to a merchant ship hanging on the Palau flag in the Black Sea, and boarded the ship with helicopter to check the ships that were driving to the Danube Port Ukraine, further threatening the Ukraine's food export channels.

Class Billman landed?

For the counterattack of Ukraine in early June, and even the two sides had a slight progress in and back, all circles have always used the habit of analyzing the Russian and Ukraine war with various battles in history.The European battlefield of World War II and World War II is a reference object widely quoted.

For example, in mid -July, two senior military analysts of Rand Corporation wrote an article in Foreign Policy, and Ukraine's counterattack ratio was landed in 1944.It is not a one -way to point out that Normani landing. After the successful landing, the US Army spent six weeks to advance about 30 kilometers in the shrub fence of Normani. Only after the US military finally broke the Nazi German defense, the German army beganFully retreat.

Of course, this type ratio has its value.In the era of 24 -hour news channels and social media, people expected to introduce new news stories every day, but the reality of war did not catch up with the media.If there are also the Internet in the World War II, the slow advancement after Normandy's landing will be negatively evaluated like today's Ukraine counterattack.

However, the rationality of Benmandi does not mean that Ukraine's counterattack will achieve the ultimate success like Normandy landing.At present, the expectations of the Western military analysis community are that Ukraine can break a gap on the Russian defense line through consumption of war and slowly, without enough manpower to defend the entire Russian army with a thousand kilometers of the front line.Essence

According to the Washington Institute of the Institute of War of the Washington Think Tank (ISW) on August 11, from the news of the Russian War Blog, the front line of the Russian army has appeared in horizontal deployment deployment, and individual division -level troops are even more scattered inTwo or three different front lines seem to show the problem of insufficient defensive manpower in the Russian army.

However, from the Russian army, it is currently launching a army counterattack in Lugansk, Northeast, Ukraine, and even if Ukraine puts the attack form on a long distance and publicly recognizes the serious shortage of Ukraine's dismantling land mines.There is a long distance to break through the Russian defense line.

Therefore, the Russian and Ukraine War is still likely to continue to be deadlocked, but whether it is from the recent attacks on the Black Sea targets, Crimea and Moscow, or from Russia's diplomacy and the food exports of Grain exports of Ukraine's Black SeaFrom the perspective of military operations, neither side meant to stop, but was constantly searching for the space to expand and upgrade the war.

difficult for war

The prerequisite for the stop of war is often the loss of material conditions to fight the war to continue the war, or it is foresee that you will inevitably fail to end.As the Ukraine counterattack has not seen breakthroughs, and the situation of the Russian army is equivalent to the Ukraine, the only possibility of people who can see the end of the war is that the West no longer supports Ukraine at this moment, so that the Ukraine has lost the material conditions of the sustainable war.As a result, it also lost his final victory expectations.

However, for the Western world at this moment, Ukraine has become a carrier of "sinking costs", and its war investment cannot be not available.Therefore, even if Western countries are unwilling, unless Russia is willing to give a down -step level so that the war can end with equal exchanges between the two sides instead of Ukraine's failure on the negotiating table, otherwise it is difficult for Western countries to continue to support Ukraine.Even in the United States, which is like Donald Trump, the main politician who aids Ukraine is the same -its recent voting of the House of Representatives, the most extreme political position, has also shown that the Republican Party has also has the majority of opinions that continue to help Ukraine.Essence

But from the recent upgrading of the Russian food exports of Ukraine, Putin will not give such a down -level step.He competed with the West is patience and persistence, and he believes that the Western camp in democratic politics will eventually fail.

The above -mentioned foreign policy articles were published on July 18th, which was exactly the period when the Ukraine counterattacked for six weeks, and the six weeks were exactly the period when the US military after landing on Norman (NormanThe landing occurred on June 6, and Norman's largest city Kaine was lost on July 21).It was expected that the Urpical counterattack would have a reasonable progress after Normandy's landing.

But from today's perspective, one month passed, and the front line has not changed much compared with one month ago (but some progress in the Russian army in the northeast).The historic war ratio may have been re -considered -the Russian and Ukraine War may not be as good as World War II, but instead of stalemate like the Western West West Line.

If the war really develops like this, by the second anniversary of the war in Russia, the West will discover that it will be trapped in the predicament of the generals of the battle with the World War I.If all parties are determined to "stop erosion" this year, let the war fight in 2024, this war is likely to enter a normal and invisible situation.