Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Author: Zuo Zhengdong
The development of cross -strait exchanges and globalization are inseparable. Since the opening of relatives, cross -strait exchanges have accompanied the rapid growth of globalization.In the past ten years, the world has entered a wave of slow globalization, especially after the outbreak of the crown disease epidemic, and because of the freezing of global interactions, it has a statement that has a strong globalization. This external environmental change has also deeply impacted cross -strait relations.Moreover, when the globalization is warmed, the economic and social interaction between the two sides of the strait is still weak, and it has even reached the edge of decoupling.
According to DHL, the global connection index report, the crown disease epidemic has brought a short -term decline in the global connection. By 2022, the goods trade has increased by 10%compared to the epidemic, but in 2022, there are still only 63%before the epidemic.The impact of the epidemic on cross -strait trade has shown a trend of rising first.In the first two years of the epidemic, cross -strait trade has shown double -digit growth. Taiwan's trade surplus in mainland China has reached a record high of hundreds of billions of dollars in 2021.But since 2022, a double -digit decline has actually occurred in the first half of 2023.
At the same time, people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have shrunk sharply, which is more serious than the reduction of global personnel.There were nearly 400,000 people who went to the mainland before the epidemic. By 2021, it reduced to 160,000, less than half of the original.Passengers who went to the mainland also declined sharply, from more than 4 million people a year before the epidemic to 2021 to 2022 to less than 200,000 people per year.Although the number of tourists in the mainland this year has grown rapidly, the mainland is located in the second largest destination of Taiwan tourists, but the number of tourists is only one -third of Japan's largest destination.language.
As for the people of the mainland go to Taiwan, the original hot professional exchanges and business exchanges have dropped sharply during the epidemic period.There are still no more than 1,000 people, and business exchanges are more than 10,000, but far from 90,000 or 100,000 people in the past, while mainland tourists come to Taiwan to be completely zero.
At present, the post -epidemic period of cross -strait relations and the "re -globalization" of the world have two aspects of departure.The first is the departure of cross -strait trade and global trade.In the first half of 2023, global trade slowed slowly, but cross -strait trade declined.Moreover, cross -strait trade has been driven by Taiwan's investment in the mainland in the past, but in the first half of this year, it has grown slowly to the mainland investment and has declined significantly.In addition, the number of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has shrunk, and it is also out of touch with the global trend of the post -epidemic era.In the first quarter of 2023, there were 235 million international passengers worldwide, and 80%of the before the epidemic.However, the flow of personnel on both sides of the strait is still far from the epidemic. It can be said that cross -strait relations are moving towards decoupling.
Cross -strait relations reach the edge of decoupling, and they are warnings on the mainland and Taiwan.If the two sides of the strait should be peaceful and unified, the people on both sides of the strait will form a dense interpersonal network to shape the social and incumbent social value between the two sides of the strait, which will also be in line with Xi Jinping's "spiritual fit".However, in recent years, mainland China has been eager to promote unity, as well as military exercises that are too frequent, high -profile and too threatening to Taiwan, have caused the people of Taiwan to be afraid of the people and lives, which seriously affects the willingness of Taiwanese people to go to the mainland.In this way, it is impossible to form a social condition that moves to peace and unity, resulting in increasingly impossible peaceful unity.
From the perspective of Taiwan, reducing the connection with the connection with mainland society with the economic and trade dependence and cutting off the mainland's economic and trade, although the Tsai government and Taiwan independence workers who are committed to "get rid of" can be made.The barrier.When mainland students and tourists walk around in Taiwan, the mainland must also take a considerable back seat against Taiwan.On the other hand, when cross -strait is as thin as paper, the back seat of the mainland's martial arts will also decline.Furthermore, when the mainland is only the options of unified force, Taiwan will only be more dangerous and safer.
It is key to restore personnel movement on both sides of the strait.To promote people on both sides of the strait, in addition to changing existing restricted measures, cross -strait also needs to pay more attention to the construction of non -material civilization and strengthen the soft power that attracts each other.These include providing a legal environment of transparent, clear, and discrimination, and the use of the fear and negative cognition of changing the people's hearts with positive action, to reverse the malicious spiral period of the epidemic to a goodwill spiral of mutual affirmation and acceptance.Social joints.
