From the United States to the European Union to Japan, the phenomenon of bankruptcy of companies in the three major economies is intensifying.Not only did the manufacturing industry fall down, but the service companies have also closed down; not only the large and Chinese enterprises have disintegrated, but also small and micro enterprises also compete for the bureau; not only the new enterprises have closed their business, and mature companies are also clustered.Tired.
The latest statistics from S & P Global shows that the number of bankruptcy in the United States with large -scale companies (assets from $ 2 million to $ 10 million) in the first half of this year reached 324, which was twice as many as the same period of the same period of the previous year.At the same time, the bankruptcy Wuyun, which is shrouded in the head of the euro zone, is even more dense. Among them, there are 8,400 bankruptcy companies in Germany in the first half of the year, and the number of bankruptcy applications has reached the highest level in 20 years.From 3200.As far as the influence is, the bankruptcy speed of the entire euro zone enterprise will not be lower than the growth rate of 23%of the whole year last year.According to a research report from PwC, the total bankruptcy of British companies in the first half of the year reached 13,000, an increase of 17%compared with the same period last year; the latest data released by the Tokyo Commercial and Workers' investigation, after the number of bankruptcy and failure in the first half of this year reached 4042, and the number of bankruptcy reached 4042 and the number of bankruptcy reached 4042.After 32%year -on -year, Japanese bankruptcy companies increased another 758 in July, and it has increased year -on -year for 16 consecutive months.
According to the global analysis report of S & P, in the past 15 years, enterprises in developed countries can reasonably obtain debt financing with interest rates of 4%to 6%at any time, especially in the Fed and the British Bank of the United Kingdom to lower interest rates near zero.And during the euro zone and Japan's implementation of negative interest rates, corporate financing costs are lower.The loose monetary policy supports the smooth "debt business" of European and American and Japanese enterprises, and also continues the "borrowing new and old" model, and the risk of bankruptcy is significantly reduced.
However, when the loose monetary policy encountered spiral inflation, the former immediately stopped and quickly tightened the policy caliber. The cost of corporate debt soared to 9%to 13%today.Comprehensive measurement, in addition to Japan, the continuous improvement of financing costs should be the blade of cutting to many companies in European and American countries.
In the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes at 11 times, and the interest rate of federal funds finally raised to 5.25%to 5.5%. At the same time, the European Central Bank raised interest rates nine times, deposit interest rates, marginal loan interest rates, and re -financing interest rates.The highest level in 22 years.The Bank of England raised interest rates for 14 consecutive times, and interest rates jumped from 0.25%to 5.25%two years ago to the highest level in 15 years.The increase in interest rates first strengthened the moral risk control of commercial banks to apply for credit enterprises and the management behavior of the periodic period. Correspondingly, the floating loan interest rate will be significantly increased and the scale of credit is at the same time.Will get loan and collection.In the case of increasing costs and blood recovery and blood replenishment, the capital chain of the enterprise is very easy to break, and in the end, it can only be helpless to choose to go bankrupt.
In particular, it is necessary to point out that compared to large enterprises with high credit, you can choose long -term and fixed interest rate loans. Many small and micro enterprises can only hold loans with floating interest rates. Interest expenditures are easy to increase quickly with interest rates. In the endThe cost of borrowing costs is more severe, and the bankruptcy rate is higher.On the other hand, the increase in the interest rate of currency market will inevitably increase the capital market interest rate, that is, the increase in bond interest rates.In this way, high interest rates not only mean companies that need more liquidity, they have to pay higher financing costs, but also represent those companies that bear huge historical debt to face higher debt repay costs, and also show those companies that are eager to business expansion., We need to pay higher reinstate costs, and bankruptcy is covered with all industries in Europe and the United States.
While high financing costs, the cost -promoting inflation is as follows.In the past two years, European and American daily prices have reached a new high of decades, especially in European countries and Japan's low -consignment rate. Due to the increasing interest rate of US dollar interest rates, the price of commodities such as international crude oil is up, and European countries and Japan quickly generate inputabilityInflation, enterprises have to pay more raw materials and fuel import costs.Not only that, the United Kingdom and Japan also face the severe test of labor costs. The two countries not only have the same labor supply and demand imbalance, but the ratio of vacant positions to job seekers.Drive mechanism.At the same time, the Japanese government put forward the policy of corporate salary increase, and the domestic domestic strike broke out in succession. Therefore, after the fiscal 2022 fiscal year, the largest salary increase in the 31 years in the 31st year, this year Japanese company employee salaryIt will continue to rise by 3.69%; after the British recorded a record from February to April, the domestic fixed wages (excluding bonuses) in China from March to May this year increased by 7.3%year -on -year, a record high.
Insufficient liquidity improves financing difficulties
It is also the double devouring of the brutal import costs and labor costs on profits. The severity of bankruptcy in European and Japanese companies must far exceed the United States.
Further retrospective analysis found that whether it is the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, or the Bank of Japan, it has adopted the quantitative loose (QE) and quantitative loose (QQE) monetary policy before this round of inflation.The former mainly purchases government bonds, while the latter concentrated on purchasing corporate bonds, ETFs of the stock market, and real estate funds from the secondary market; the Federal Reserve even purchased garbage bonds through QQE to break the sky.Even if the European and British Bank and the Bank of Japan are not as good as the Federal Reserve, they are all eaten, but among the ETF products purchased, they are not as non -investment level BB -class bonds.The central bank's purchase of corporate bonds in the economic downturn cycle, while injecting abundant liquidity into the market, also promptly meet the needs of corporate capital circulation, and at the same time boosted the business confidence of the enterprise.
However, because the bond issuance is not worried about buyers, there are no shortage of risks to some people, and financing is smoother and easy to come than any time.Therefore, for enterprises, there is no need to change the business model, nor does it need to strengthen management, let alone the iteration and upgrade of the product, you can "lie down and win".However, when QE and QQE stopped and started to "shrink the table", those companies that previously took advantage of the opportunity to add leverage or heavy debt would suddenly find the dilemma of "blood loss", especially the junk bonds not only had high interest rates, but also for a long time.Short, the debt repayment pressure faced by the issuance entities is unprecedented. Under the premise of losing the support funds of the back, the company can only end in bankruptcy.In this sense, European, American -Japanese and Japanese companies have uniformly increased losses and bankruptcy, which is actually a centralized release of QE and QQE's increasingly accumulating risks.
Compared with QE and QQE, the rescue policy launched by the three major economies of Europe, America and Japan during the crown disease epidemic situation has more direct effects on many companies, but in the end, many negative feedback shocks and harms have been produced.Shortly after the epidemic, the United States and the euro zone and the British government provided enterprises with fiscal funds and tax reduction and exemption. The Japanese government implemented a "zero loan" policy for enterprises without interest and no guarantee.But since the second half of last year, these temporary assistance policies have launched the rhythm of gradual exit, which has caused enterprises that have visited the government as a life -saving rope in the epidemic.If you come out, rely on blood transfusion and life, no matter how unsuccessful it is.
The rescue policy of crisis management has indeed helped relevant companies to achieve the purpose of protecting life and renewal, but it has also made many "zombie companies" be able to stretch.Inhibitory, enterprises may also miss the opportunities for business reconstruction and asset stripping and business model calibration.It is just that the market elimination forces composed of severe inflation and high interest rate costs appear with very cruel and ruthless faces. Many companies are either treated with their hands or died.Obviously, the dense bankruptcy of European and American and Japanese companies is actually a business result delayed by policies. It is a micro -reshaping of market self -correction and deep baptism in the industry.
Statistics show, beautyThe National District Court received a total of 162,000 bankruptcy applications in the first quarter of this year, but the application does not mean real bankruptcy. The final result of the trial will make the actual number of bankruptcy exceed the current stock.At the same time, according to the latest predictions of the global credit insurance company Allianz Insurance, the number of bankruptcy in the euro zone company this year will break through the level of last year; about 28,500 companies in the UK bankruptcy, an increase of 16%year -on -year.In Japan, the scale of corporate bankruptcy in 2023 has basically no suspense.In addition, the analysis report of the Integrated Pwi Word of Yongdao and Allianz Insurance may continue to intensify in 2024.
