Source: Hong Kong 01

01 Review Editor Room

Tourism Development Bureau announced that nearly 3.6 million travelers visited Hong Kong in July, an increase of more than 30 % monthly.The media generally reported in words, and it was reminiscent of the sentence that the Chief Executive Li Jiachao said on the TV and night broadcast on TV, "Hong Kong is on Stage Again".

However, in the case of restoring tourism and low base effects, the reference value of the monthly increase is not great.Instead, the same month before the crown disease, that is, in July 2019, the number of passengers visiting Hong Kong was 5.2 million. In other words, the current number of passengers was still 70 % of the original.

Mainland guests have returned to 70 % of foreign customers less than 60 %

Look at the details again, 2.98 million passengers in mainland China last month, equivalent to 72%of the same period (4.16 million) in the same period of 2019, 610,000 passengers (including Australia and Taiwan), only before the epidemic (1.04 million) from the epidemic (1.04 million).59%.On the first ten days of August, mainland visitors have recorded 1.052 million, but non -mainland travelers have only 98,000.It is speculated that the number of tourists from other places this month is afraid of limited recovery.

At the same time, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism further relaxed the outbound tourism group. From now on, the people of the mainland can already go to Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States and other places.Nowadays, overnight passengers of mainland China will be transferred to other places every month, and they will even slow down the recovery of Hong Kong's tourism and retail industry. It seems that there is no hidden worry.

Especially under the strength of the US dollar, the yuan against Hong Kong dollars fell from 1.23 last year to the current 1.08, and the yen also fell from 6.8 to 5.4. On the one handThe Hong Kong people "returned to the countryside" to travel to Japan.The Federal Reserve has maintained a high -interest environment this year, and the Bank of Japan has not intended to end the super loose environment, making Hong Kong still in an unfavorable position in the second half of the year.

The upper limit of the decline under optimization expectations

The Government Economic Consultant Office announced the second quarter economic situation on Friday (August 11) and the forecast of revising the total economic product of the year.Simply put, Liang Yongsheng, a government economic adviser, has blame the high -interest environment in Europe and the United States.However, at the same time, because the US interest is expected to see the top, the mainland adjustment of economic policies, and the low economic gene of Hong Kong last year, the official economic growth in the second half of the year of Hong Kong is still cautious and optimistic.%.

But to pay attention, only two months ago, Chen Maobo, the director of the Financial Secretary, stated in the Financial Affairs Committee of the Legislative Council that "this year's growth can achieve a high scope close to estimated."The government is now narrowing the forecast scope, and the upper limit is revised from 5.5%to 5%. To some extent, it has been adjusted.

The government expects that for the rest of this year, visiting Hong Kong tourism and private consumption is the main driving force for economic growth.When the local consumption of citizens increased in the second quarter, Liang Yongsheng also pointed out correctly, "This reflects the existence of consumer power and demand is recovering. How to make Hong Kong more attractive and more willing to consume? Better service?And better cost -effectiveness, this is where to work hard. "

It is like a record of more than 30,000 votes for Changshi Yasang New List, which shows that the other side of the so -called property market is the other side. As long as the price is appropriate, many citizens still have the intention and strong "get on the car".Even if citizens can buy business at a relatively cheap price, it is equivalent to retaining certain economic capabilities that can be used for other consumption, which can also be a potential factor that is beneficial to Hong Kong's economy.

The substantive consumption has not exceeded the investment in the peak of the investment

Europe and the United States high interest rates, and the contraction of mainland China is really not conducive to Hong Kong, but external factors are not overcome.The exchange rate is only one of the factors that affect the price, and the price is not the only factor that determines attraction.The key depends on whether our products or services are characteristic, attractive, and even worthwhile.

But the rent index of Hong Kong's retail industry is only 10 % adjusted compared to the high level in 2019. It is still a heavy burden on merchants and restaurants.The local GDP and the private consumption expenditure as an important part of its component, the substantial value after deducting the inflation factors has not yet made a breakthrough after seeing it in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the total amount of local fixed capital formation has fallen from a high level in 2014 in 2014.Two or eight.

Therefore, the surrounding environment of major officials such as the Chief Executive and the Financial Secretary is not the real challenge faced by the Hong Kong economy.Regardless of whether the interest rate hikes, exchange rates, or the pace of recovery of mainland China are not as expected, the decisive factor is always whether our own strength has been at the top before the epidemic.Politician Qiu Jiaer and even economist Bernanke emphasized that a crisis should not be wasted.Instead of "singing in Hong Kong", our government is better to break the distorted structure of the rental economy at this time, promote the upgrading and transformation of the industry, and lay a solid foundation for the development of the next five to ten years.