The Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang of the two major political parties in Taiwan have successively held the party congress in July to officially launch the presidential candidate, which is equivalent to announced that the 2024 Taiwan election officially started.Lai Qingde, who represents the Democratic Progressive Party, continued to lead in polls, and the Non -Democratic Progressive Party camp is still in a split state.Although the Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun shouted the slogans of "non -green unity" and "governing the Great League", it was not easy for the so -called "non -green camp" to cooperate to achieve the party's rotation and remove the DPP.
In the wild camp, in the polls, the former mayor of Taipei Ke Wenzhe, the former mayor of Taipei, and Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei, nominated by the Kuomintang, ranked third.If Foxconn founder Guo Taiming, who has not yet announced the election but is essentially in the campaign, has ranked fourth in most polls, but there is not much gap with Hou Youyi.
Taking the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation's monthly survey since March this year, in the game of Lai, Ke, and Hou, Lai Qingde and maintained a leading lead, and the support of June and July was around 36%.Ke Wenzhe, who lived in the second, was less than 28%in July, which was quite different from Lai Qingde.Although the hills of non -green camps dream of adding support to add support, they have the opportunity to surpass Lai Qingde, but they are pregnant with ghosts and self -centers.
The leading Lai Qingde did not have the crisis of losing their feet?
From the perspective of the trend of polls, Lai Qingde has maintained a 36%lead in the competition of the three. Basically, the basic disk of the green camps supports him unity and can also grab some middle voters.It is just that the space to expand to the middle area is limited, because this area is large, and some of them are occupied by Ke Wenzhe. If Guo Taiming joins the war situation, it will also divide into part of the middle votes, which will limit Lai Qingde to further expand the lead.
Another factor is Lai Qingde's personal style.His image is gentle and firm but a bit conservative. He always wear neat suites and a bit of ancient hairstyles, and he lacks Cai Yingwen's female affinity in the speech.Sometimes he speaks sharp and funny, and often jumping logic is unreasonable, but it is in line with the taste of young people, allowing him to win the most supporting the young voters.Tsai Ing -wen can be elected president twice, which is conducive to the support of young voters.This is the advantage that Lai Qingde lacks today.
What is worth noting is that in case of the deterioration of cross -strait relations, young people are worried that once the battlefield is on the battlefield, the planned life and even life have to be sacrificed.Ke Wenzhe has always advocated "a family on both sides of the strait", and even advocates restarting cross -strait service trade negotiations (this is the fuse of the Sunflower Movement in 2014). Ke confessed that if he was elected president, the Taiwan Strait War was at the lowest.Guo Taiming issued a peaceful declaration in Golden Gate in May, advocating to restart the cross -strait negotiations on the basis of "one middle and various tables".Hou Youyi even pointed out that this election is "the choice of war and peace."Obviously, the non -green camp's candidates all point their finger at Lai Qingde's Taiwan independence position, questioning that Lai Qingde's election will cause the cross -strait war and will not be trusted by the United States.
"Practical Taiwan Independence Workers" is a label that Lai Qingde has passed on himself in the past. Now he knows that this label will make him a target, and it is also the focus of his explanation to Washington and Taiwanese voters.Therefore, when the "Report to Party Members" at the end of last year, Lai Qingde emphasized that "democracy, peace, and prosperity are the new mission of the DPP in the new era of the DPP.""Democracy" has always been a word hanging on the mouth of the Democratic Progressive Party. "Peace" and "prosperity" are obviously aimed at the outside world that his Taiwan independence position will cause Taiwan to fall into war and economic disintegration.
After the election war was heating up, Lai Qingde also hung "prosperity and peace" to his mouth.The most important one is the "Four-Pillar Plan for Peace" proposed by the Wall Street Journal of the United States in early July, including: 1. Constructing Taiwan's military deterrence; 2. Economic security is national security; 3. 3.Establish partnership with global democratic countries; 4. Stable and principled cross -strait relations leadership capabilities.He advocates maintaining the status quo of the Taiwan Strait and does not rule out dialogue with Beijing.
Speaking to the United States, China and Taiwan Relations is not as good as Cai
This investment book is regarded as a statement to Washington to resolve Washington's doubts about Lai Qingde's unique position.The main international media also gives a positive evaluation of the investment book. Basically, this investment book should achieve the goal of reassuring Washington.Unexpectedly, Lai Qingde said in a campaign that the 2024 election was the choice of Zhongnanhai and the White House, and said that in recent years, Taiwan -US relations have become closer and closer.The goal is achieved. "This conversation emphasizes that Taiwan is tilting to the United States between the United States and China. This is obviously showing to Washington. Unexpectedly, there is a policy of policy staff in Washington.The policy "Taiwan and Vice President did not step into Washington. Therefore, Lai Qingde explained clearly through the London Financial Times.
The United States is actually a little masterpiece. Lai Qingde said that "walking into the White House" on the election occasion is only a symbolic metaphor, and it does not have a substantial policy meaning.As Lai Qingde visited Paraguay in the United States in August, perhaps the United States was worried that he would want to improve the specifications of visiting to the United States when he passed the country.However, this incident also highlighted Lai Qingde's speech in the United States, China, and Taiwan. It was not as good as Cai Yingwen. Taiwan's public opinion also questioned whether the Guoan diplomatic staff of Lai was competent.
Lai Qingde emphasizes peace, in addition to expressed his statement to the United States, it is more important to persuade Taiwanese voters -especially young voters and middle voters -believe that he is willing and capable to avoid cross -strait wars, and he can firmly defend TaiwanThe sovereignty allows the democratic system to not be disturbed by Beijing.
Beijing will keep a distance or intervene?
It can be foreseeable for more than five months, and the presidential candidates will continue to confront cross -strait and war issues.Beijing will keep a distance or intervene in the election, and it will also affect the results of the election campaign -the past experience is that Beijing usually helps the non -green camp.
Of course, in addition to the major issues such as cross -strait wars and peace, it will affect the election campaign. Early emergencies such as major political disadvantages, natural disasters and human disasters, or major economic crises may affect the election results.These are difficult to reverse, and it is difficult to prepare in the script in advance. Usually such emergencies negative events are not good for ruling elections.
If the topic of the United States and China is properly handled, the above emergencies have not been lucky to happen. Lai Qingde's election situation is still stable and optimistic.
The author is a senior media person in Taiwan, the chief of the new news of the Internet media
