Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society
The Federal Federal Federal Public Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 1 yard on the 26th. The federal fund interest rate was 525%-5.50%.There are two points worth observing.The first is that after the meeting and the chairman Ball's speech at the press conference, it did not imply that the tightening cycle had been completed. Instead, it emphasized the determination to fight against inflation and did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates again this year.The expectation of Lido is out; but on the other hand, Ball emphasizes that the economy has reached a "soft landing" hopes for the first time, and the risk of economic recession decreases, which has weakened the market concerns.
FED still emphasized that employment is strong, unemployed, and high inflation, so the future interest rate path is still "everything to see data" in the future.Ball also said that although the current interest rate water level is "closer to has full binding power", the monetary policy has not binding the economic activities enough and not long enough, which is not enough to give full play to the expected results.Furthermore, although the annual increase rate of consumer prices (CPI) in June has dropped sharply to 3%, Ball has not mentioned this, and only saidEmphasize "we must get" inflation.This fully shows that the FED does not rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes this year.
Ball's statement is quite stable.All circles have been worried that interest rates may rise, and few people think that monetary policy is not tight enough.But far away, the experience of 2021-22 alone proves the pain caused by FED's neglect of inflation pressure.Although it has continued to raise interest rates since March last year, the economic performance is still tough so far, and it has not cooled to the level of inflation goals.At present, the unemployment rate is only 3.6%, which is the same as before the interest rate hike last year; the stock market has rebounded sharply, and the yield of public debt yields has only risen slightly compared with the time. In addition, the US dollar depreciation shows that the credit situation is not tight.
Looking at the inflation surface again, although the overall CPI annual increase rate in June has decreased significantly due to the high base period, the core CPI annual increase rate is still 4.8%, the service industry rises by 5.7%, and the rent is 8.3%year -on -year.And house prices have retracted signals; inflation is so sticky, and Fed naturally cannot relax alertness.If decision officials now reveal the information that may no longer raise interest rates, the investor will determine that the tightening cycle has been completed, and it is expected that FED will cut interest rates significantly next year.Growing up firewood to help fire, the task of suppressing inflation will be even more difficult, of course, it is not what FED wants.
See if the US economy can "soft land" again, that is, while suppressing inflation, will the economy fall into decline?Ball has previously emphasized that in order to achieve the inflation target, even if the economy must bear some pain, the unemployment is rising gentle, and it is ignored; as for "soft landing", he only holds a hint of hope.However, now Ball is much more optimistic about reaching "soft landing" than before, because it has not had a significant adverse effect on the labor market.FOMC Vice Chairman Williams also said this month that he did not expect the decline to come, but entered the stage of economic low.This is true, which will be a very rare performance for Ball, at least a few decades.
However, Ball's hopes need many conditions to achieve it.First, there must be relatively favorable data for inflation for three consecutive months. You must first see the service -type inflation that comes to an end, because future product inflation may rise.Second, Fed must be sure that you will not make mistakes because of some "fake actions" in the middle of 2021 and early this year.Third, the family and corporate community must show sufficient toughness to the tight impact of digestion and absorbing the lag effect of interest rate hikes.Fourth, regional banks must be able to ensure financing channels, and non -bank financial institutions must also be able to absorb the losses caused by low -profit lending.
In summary, because the interest rate has risen 5.25 percentage points (21 yards), the current focus is no longer the "height" of the final interest rate, but whether the "attitude" of FED against inflation is firm.Before the next meeting in mid -September, there are nearly eight weeks, FED can see employment reports of 7, 8 months and consumer price index.The FED no longer predicts that the economy will decline, and the financial turmoil caused by the closing of banks before the bank closure has also calmed down. The worries of decision -making officials have greatly reduced, and FEDs are more available.Since the Fed is not sure where the endpoint interest rate should be, the decision-making time is extended and the "Fine-Tuning" strategy should be the correct approach.Those who do a hundred miles, half ninety; on the last mile of inflation, once the FED stands, it is likely to lose money.
