Source: Voice of Germany Chinese website
According to the average forecast of economists, the German economy reluctantly escaped the recession through a small growth in the second quarter.Economists in 19 banks surveyed by Reuters have average forecasts. Compared with the first quarter, the GDP from April to June will increase by 0.1 %.
In the past two quarters, due to high inflation, the purchasing power has declined, which has led to a decline in consumption. In the previous two quarters, the largest economy in Europe has shrunk.At the end of 2022, GDP fell 0.5 %, and 0.3 % fell in early 2023.A negative growth in two consecutive quarters is called technical recession.The German Federal Bureau of Statistics will make preliminary estimates on spring performance on Friday.
Butkisky, chief economist of the Netherlands International Group, said in the spring quarter: "This is not the beginning of recovery." This is just a short -term easing.This may be due to the growth of consumption, because inflation is no longer as serious as the beginning of the year, and many industries have reached a significant salary growth agreement.In the next few months, it may be seen more about stagnation rather than growing."We will see a period of recession," said Bujesky.
Berlanberg Bank economist Federer also believes that consumers' purchase behavior supports economic growth in the second quarter.Federer said: "The industry is still in trouble. In addition, higher interest rates may put further pressure on the construction industry." In view of the unstable global economy, it is not optimistic that foreign trade can bring positive stimulus.
Some experts believe that the German economy may fall into a decline again in the second half of the year-in view of the most important economic advance indicators-the German IFO business prosperity index, it has declined for the third consecutive month in July.Claus Wallabe, the person in charge of the IFO investigation, pointed out: "The weak stage of the German economy will continue." It is expected that the domestic GDP in the third quarter of this year will decline.
According to the data organized by the International Monetary Fund, compared with other industrialized countries, Germany's economic performance is extremely bad. It is the only big country that may have shrunk this year.The International Monetary Fund predicts that Germany's GDP will decrease by 0.3 % this year, and it will increase by 1.3 % in 2024.
