There is a famous saying: "History will not be repeated, but it is always amazingly similar." The Japanese stock market, which has long been neglected in international investors, suddenly won the favor of foreign investment again in the second quarter.The highest level in 33 years has been in a strong comparison with the stock market of China and Hong Kong, which has been slumped in the same period.In the context of Sino -US relations, those who understand history will inevitably be from the performance of the Japanese stock market. After the 1950s, after the Sino -U.S. -U.S. confrontation, the economy that has almost collapsed after the defeat of World War II, but from now onKangzhuang Avenue, which takes off for the economy.

In fact, the current performance of the Japanese stock market has not only appeared in these months.As early as the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe implemented its "Abe Economics" 30 years ago, the Japanese stock market began to gradually rise from the bottom of the valley, but for a long time, the long -term impression of the weak economic growth after the bubble foam at the end of the century was burst for a long time.The deep -rooted solid has made many international investors, including Japanese investors other than the financial circle, lacked interest and attention to Japanese stocks.If the performance is calculated in the past 10 years, the Japanese Economic Index does not include the increase in the devaluation factors of the yen, which actually exceeds the developed economy markets outside the US stock market.

The phenomenon of cold Japanese stocks was obviously changed by April.The US investment tycoon Buffett's visit to Tokyo in April talked about his buying five Japanese stocks, which undoubtedly issued the attention of global investors to Japanese stocks.At the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway in Berkshire Hathaway last month, Buffett revealed that he was still looking for more investable Japanese stocks, which caused further pursuit of Japanese stocks. The Japanese stock market also alsoQuickly become the most popular developed economy market in global investors.Many financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Fidge International and Bank of Singapore have successively expressed their opinions on the performance of Japanese stock markets.

The reason why Japanese stocks are widely optimistic at this time are most of the explanations that the fundamentals of Japan have improved significantly.In terms of employment, the number of local employment is now significantly increased compared to 10 years ago; after years of stagnation, wages have finally achieved temperature growth.In terms of prices, core inflation has been higher than the 2%target proposed by the Bank of Japan for 15 consecutive months, which has reversed the tightening situation of decades.

In addition, the company's management issues that have attracted much attention from investors have also improved in these years.According to statistics, more than 88%of the board of directors of Japanese listed companies now have one -third or more independent directors from the company. In 2014, this ratio was only 6.4%.The shareholders' meeting is no longer as calm as before, criticizing and even rejection of the phenomenon of management.For example, the Chairman of the Automobile Giant Toyota Toyota Zhangnan almost couldn't hold power at this year's shareholders' meeting.Not independent enough to vote at the conference against his re -election.

But these advantages are strictly the same as that of the Japanese stock market. It is not the phenomenon that emerged in these months.

Whether it is the economy or the changes in the style of the Japanese company, it can be traced back to the earlier than investors to start facing Japanese stocks earlier.If you want to deepen the reason why this Japanese market boom, I am afraid to analyze it from other aspects, and this has to look at China and analysts that have been touched by existing media and analysts, but China -US relations that have not received much attention havefactor.

Compared with the improvement of the Japanese economy, China's current economy has not been as good as external expectations after three years of harsh epidemic and control.Earlier, it is generally believed that China has been reopened since the end of the epidemic at the end of last year, and the economy will increase in blowouts. However, in the second quarter, a series of data shows that consumer expenditure is lower than expected, house sales continue to slow down, and exports depend on manufacturing.The industry also shows a slump.What is more noticeable is that the unemployment rate of young people is high, and the employment prospects are dim, so that all circles are disappointed by the rebound of China's economic re -opening, and feel that its economy is rapidly losing their motivation.

The strong comparison of economic performance is the main factor that promotes the favored Japanese stocks. This reason may not be sufficient in the financial community. After all, the stock market's ups and downs and the economy are often synchronized.A major factor in the stock market.Since the Chinese government has reopening, it has not stopped any measures that may crack down on business confidence like external expectations.On the contrary, by the second quarter, from the raid inspection international consulting company to the introduction of the anti -spy law, it is believed that China is implementing the 20th National Congress of national security for economic development.Even the feasibility of international enterprises' business in China has begun to question.

Looking at it deeply, it is not difficult to see that the Japanese stock market is directly benefiting from some "non -China" transactions that risk aversion investors call.Because foreign investors do not want to bear the risk of direct investment in China, they are trying to find an investable and strong alternative way to benefit from the opportunity that emerge in China.Japan, which is a major trading partner and a source of investment, has undoubtedly become an excellent choice for these insurance -free investors.

More importantly, with the "China +1" and "de -risk" blowing by the United States and the European Union, and even the reshaping of the global industrial supply chain decoupled from China, the distance between Japan and China isOn the other hand, it has triggered a longing for foreign acquisitions of Japanese manufacturers and facilities.The Kishida Government recently, especially at the Seven Kingdoms Summit held in Hiroshima, actively promoted that Japan can be a friendly and friendly supply chain partner for the stability and firmness of Western camps. In addition, global semiconductor companies such as Micron, Samsung Electronics to TSMC have all in Japan.The planning and research plans for factories, these developments in the current atmosphere of the decoustration of Sino -US decoupling and military tensions, are undoubtedly enhanced the attractiveness of the local capital market.

If you look forward to today more than 10 years ago, I am afraid that not many people can expect that the Japanese stock market will be so popular at that time. After all, China's GDP (GDP) surpassed Japan in 2010. After the earthquake in Northeast Japan the next year,Foreign and foreign companies have left, and with the rise of China, Asian transactions and corporate financing activities have changed in the next few years, and they have gathered in Hong Kong and mainland China.Today, looking at Hong Kong and mainland China, there are no signs that the optimism and favors of those years have not been shown, and local fund managers are still common, let alone those who have left the local investment.

In view of the intensification of geopolitical tensions between China and the United States and China's policy risk concerns, in the visible future, I believe that the Japanese stock market will continue to enjoy a certain heat and actions in the investment community.

(The author is a local freelance)